Vito Antonio Muscatelli

Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies

A central question in studies of the Asian newly industrialised economies has been whether the extremely rapid export growth of these countries can be viewed as primarily a phenomenon of income-elastic export demand or of fast-expanding export supply in the face of highly price-elastic demand. This paper provides evidence to show that, while high income elasticities of export demand are detected using a conventional simultaneous model, this may conceal the presence of important product differentiation and product innovation effects on export demand. These are then captured using a measure of the total resource base. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.

Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures

This paper provides empirical evidence on the extent to which the Asian Newly Industrialised Economies (NIEs) compete in world export markets. Our results support existing studies which emphasise the importance of allowing for intra-LDC competition in modelling an individual developing countrys exports. Whilst the Asian NIEs are regarded as a model for other developing countries to emulate, one has to consider whether such an expansion in export supply would be at the expense of OECD economies or whether it will lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade of the developing countries as a group.

Fisher, Barro, and the Italian Interest Rate, 1845–93

There is a growing international literature on the determinants of long-run interest rates in the OECD economies (see inter alia Friedman and Schwartz, 1982; Summers, 1983, 1986; Barro, 1987; Barsky, 1987; Evans, 1987; Mankiw, 1987; Boudoukh and Richardson, 1993). However, this literature has neglected the experience of Italy. Italy’s experience is of interest because it has been more inflation prone than the other G7 countries, and has suffered from recurring fiscal deficits. It is, therefore, a natural testing ground for some of the main theories of interest rate determination. We focus on two issues in particular. First, we examine whether nominal interest rates have fully incorporated inflationary expectations (the “Fisher effect”) in an environment where inflation has been high and persistent. Second, we estimate the impact of fiscal policy on real interest rates in an attempt to verify the

An analysis of the disaggregated manufacturing exports of the Asian NIEs to EEC, USA and Japan

This paper examines the export performance of the four Asian newly industrialized economics (NIEs) by modelling their bilateral export flows to three main OECD blocks: the USA, Japan, and the European Community. Our estimated export demand models reveal interesting asymmetries between these three areas of destination which do not emerge from previous aggregate empirical studies of NIE export performance.

Third World Debt and Macroeconomic Interactions Between the North and South

In this article the authors examine three issues: the causes of the Souths debt crisis, the nature of the macroeconomic linkages between the North and South, and some of the debt rescheduling programmes. The crisis was due not only to domestic policies in the South but also to the macroeconomic linkages between the South and the OECD economies. These linkages may also play an important part in its cure. Debt adjustment with growth for the South needs a package of measures including greater co‐operation on macroeconomic policies and trade issues between North and South and a commonly agreed position on outstanding debt.