Vitor C. Sousa

The Confounding Effects of Population Structure, Genetic Diversity and the Sampling Scheme on the Detection and Quantification of Population Size Changes

The idea that molecular data should contain information on the recent evolutionary history of populations is rather old. However, much of the work carried out today owes to the work of the statisticians and theoreticians who demonstrated that it was possible to detect departures from equilibrium conditions (e.g., panmictic population/mutation–drift equilibrium) and interpret them in terms of deviations from neutrality or stationarity. During the last 20 years the detection of population size changes has usually been carried out under the assumption that samples were obtained from populations that can be approximated by a Wright–Fisher model (i.e., assuming panmixia, demographic stationarity, etc.). However, natural populations are usually part of spatial networks and are interconnected through gene flow. Here we simulated genetic data at mutation and migration–drift equilibrium under an n-island and a stepping-stone model. The simulated populations were thus stationary and not subject to any population size change. We varied the level of gene flow between populations and the scaled mutation rate. We also used several sampling schemes. We then analyzed the simulated samples using the Bayesian method implemented in MSVAR, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation program, to detect and quantify putative population size changes using microsatellite data. Our results show that all three factors (genetic differentiation/gene flow, genetic diversity, and the sampling scheme) play a role in generating false bottleneck signals. We also suggest an ad hoc method to counter this effect. The confounding effect of population structure and of the sampling scheme has practical implications for many conservation studies. Indeed, if population structure is creating “spurious” bottleneck signals, the interpretation of bottleneck signals from genetic data might be less straightforward than it would seem, and several studies may have overestimated or incorrectly detected bottlenecks in endangered species.

Understanding the origin of species with genome-scale data: modelling gene flow

As it becomes easier to sequence multiple genomes from closely related species, evolutionary biologists working on speciation are struggling to get the most out of very large population genomic data sets. Such data hold the potential to resolve long-standing questions in evolutionary biology about the role of gene exchange in species formation. In principle, the new population genomic data can be used to disentangle the conflicting roles of natural selection and gene flow during the divergence process. However, there are great challenges in taking full advantage of such data, especially with regard to including recombination in genetic models of the divergence process. Current data, models, methods and the potential pitfalls in using them will be considered here.

A genomic history of Aboriginal Australia

The population history of Aboriginal Australians remains largely uncharacterized. Here we generate high-coverage genomes for 83 Aboriginal Australians (speakers of Pama–Nyungan languages) and 25 Papuans from the New Guinea Highlands. We find that Papuan and Aboriginal Australian ancestors diversified 25–40 thousand years ago (kya), suggesting pre-Holocene population structure in the ancient continent of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and Tasmania). However, all of the studied Aboriginal Australians descend from a single founding population that differentiated ~10–32 kya. We infer a population expansion in northeast Australia during the Holocene epoch (past 10,000 years) associated with limited gene flow from this region to the rest of Australia, consistent with the spread of the Pama–Nyungan languages. We estimate that Aboriginal Australians and Papuans diverged from Eurasians 51–72 kya, following a single out-of-Africa dispersal, and subsequently admixed with archaic populations. Finally, we report evidence of selection in Aboriginal Australians potentially associated with living in the desert.

Approximate Bayesian Computation Without Summary Statistics: The Case of Admixture

In recent years approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods have become popular in population genetics as an alternative to full-likelihood methods to make inferences under complex demographic models. Most ABC methods rely on the choice of a set of summary statistics to extract information from the data. In this article we tested the use of the full allelic distribution directly in an ABC framework. Although the ABC techniques are becoming more widely used, there is still uncertainty over how they perform in comparison with full-likelihood methods. We thus conducted a simulation study and provide a detailed examination of ABC in comparison with full likelihood in the case of a model of admixture. This model assumes that two parental populations mixed at a certain time in the past, creating a hybrid population, and that the three populations then evolve under pure drift. Several aspects of ABC methodology were investigated, such as the effect of the distance metric chosen to measure the similarity between simulated and observed data sets. Results show that in general ABC provides good approximations to the posterior distributions obtained with the full-likelihood method. This suggests that it is possible to apply ABC using allele frequencies to make inferences in cases where it is difficult to select a set of suitable summary statistics and when the complexity of the model or the size of the data set makes it computationally prohibitive to use full-likelihood methods.

Genome-culture coevolution promotes rapid divergence of killer whale ecotypes.

Analysing population genomic data from killer whale ecotypes, which we estimate have globally radiated within less than 250,000 years, we show that genetic structuring including the segregation of potentially functional alleles is associated with socially inherited ecological niche. Reconstruction of ancestral demographic history revealed bottlenecks during founder events, likely promoting ecological divergence and genetic drift resulting in a wide range of genome-wide differentiation between pairs of allopatric and sympatric ecotypes. Functional enrichment analyses provided evidence for regional genomic divergence associated with habitat, dietary preferences and post-zygotic reproductive isolation. Our findings are consistent with expansion of small founder groups into novel niches by an initial plastic behavioural response, perpetuated by social learning imposing an altered natural selection regime. The study constitutes an important step towards an understanding of the complex interaction between demographic history, culture, ecological adaptation and evolution at the genomic level.

Chimpanzee genomic diversity reveals ancient admixture with bonobos

Of chimpanzees and bonobos Modern non-African human genomes contain genomic remnants that suggest that there was interbreeding between ancient humans and archaic hominoid lineages. Now, de Manuel et al. show similar ancestral interbreeding between the ancestors of todays chimpanzees and bonobos (see the Perspective by Hoelzel). The study also provides population-specific genetic markers that may be valuable for conservation efforts. Science, this issue p. 477; see also p. 414 Genome sequences reveal ancient interbreeding between chimpanzees and bonobos. Our closest living relatives, chimpanzees and bonobos, have a complex demographic history. We analyzed the high-coverage whole genomes of 75 wild-born chimpanzees and bonobos from 10 countries in Africa. We found that chimpanzee population substructure makes genetic information a good predictor of geographic origin at country and regional scales. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that gene flow occurred from bonobos into the ancestors of central and eastern chimpanzees between 200,000 and 550,000 years ago, probably with subsequent spread into Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzees. Together with another, possibly more recent contact (after 200,000 years ago), bonobos contributed less than 1% to the central chimpanzee genomes. Admixture thus appears to have been widespread during hominid evolution.

Population divergence with or without admixture: selecting models using an ABC approach

Genetic data have been widely used to reconstruct the demographic history of populations, including the estimation of migration rates, divergence times and relative admixture contribution from different populations. Recently, increasing interest has been given to the ability of genetic data to distinguish alternative models. One of the issues that has plagued this kind of inference is that ancestral shared polymorphism is often difficult to separate from admixture or gene flow. Here, we applied an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to select the model that best fits microsatellite data among alternative splitting and admixture models. We performed a simulation study and showed that with reasonably large data sets (20 loci) it is possible to identify with a high level of accuracy the model that generated the data. This suggests that it is possible to distinguish genetic patterns due to past admixture events from those due to shared polymorphism (population split without admixture). We then apply this approach to microsatellite data from an endangered and endemic Iberian freshwater fish species, in which a clustering analysis suggested that one of the populations could be admixed. In contrast, our results suggest that the observed genetic patterns are better explained by a population split model without admixture.

On the nonidentifiability of migration time estimates in isolation with migration models

In recent years many studies have found evidence of gene flow between diverging populations by analyzing genetic data under an Isolation with Migration (IM) model (Pinho & Hey 2010). Given evidence of gene exchange, investigators often then wish to inquire of the time when gene flow occurred (e.g. Won & Hey 2005; Becquet & Przeworski 2009). For example, a model of divergence with gene flow would be suggested if gene flow occurred early or throughout the divergence process, whereas secondary contact would be the likely interpretation if gene flow was found to only have occurred after divergence had been ongoing for some time. Recently Strasburg & Rieseberg (2011) assessed the quality of estimates for the time of migration events using the method currently implemented in the IMA2 program (Hey 2010). They found that the credible intervals of estimated times were so wide as to make the method unsuitable for the question. These results suggest that some conclusions of previous studies that draw upon the posterior distribution for times of migration should be discounted (e.g. Won & Hey 2005; Strasburg et al 2008; Niemiller et al 2008; Nadachowska & Babik 2009). The Strasburg & Rieseberg (2011) study reports results from simulations. Here we examine, using the theory underlying the method implemented in the IMA2 program, the possible bases for their observations. We demonstrate that gene migration times are not fully identifiable using the general coalescent for genealogies in an IM model, as implemented in IMA2 and similar programs. In many respects the findings are general to methods that rely upon calculating the probabilities of genealogies under the coalescent, and so are of broader interest than any particular program. We note that the method implemented in IMA2 is the same as that in the IMA program (Hey & Nielsen 2007), and hereafter we refer simply to IMA.

Identifying Loci Under Selection Against Gene Flow in Isolation-with-Migration Models

When divergence occurs in the presence of gene flow, there can arise an interesting dynamic in which selection against gene flow, at sites associated with population-specific adaptations or genetic incompatibilities, can cause net gene flow to vary across the genome. Loci linked to sites under selection may experience reduced gene flow and may experience genetic bottlenecks by the action of nearby selective sweeps. Data from histories such as these may be poorly fitted by conventional neutral model approaches to demographic inference, which treat all loci as equally subject to forces of genetic drift and gene flow. To allow for demographic inference in the face of such histories, as well as the identification of loci affected by selection, we developed an isolation-with-migration model that explicitly provides for variation among genomic regions in migration rates and/or rates of genetic drift. The method allows for loci to fall into any of multiple groups, each characterized by a different set of parameters, thus relaxing the assumption that all loci share the same demography. By grouping loci, the method can be applied to data with multiple loci and still have tractable dimensionality and statistical power. We studied the performance of the method using simulated data, and we applied the method to study the divergence of two subspecies of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus).

Signature of a Pre-Human Population Decline in the Critically Endangered Reunion Island Endemic Forest Bird Coracina newtoni

The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km2 area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations.