Vivi Fleming-Lehtinen

Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long‐term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112‐year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid‐1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long‐term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large‐scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem‐based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.

Long-term Development of Inorganic Nutrients and Chlorophyll α in the Open Northern Baltic Sea

Abstract Eutrophication is an ongoing process in most parts of the Baltic Sea. This article reports on the changes during recent decades of several eutrophication-related variables in the open sea areas surrounding Finland (wintertime nutrient concentrations, wintertime nutrient ratios, and summer time chlorophyll α concentrations at the surface). The sum of nitrate- and nitrite-nitrogen ([NO3+NO2]-N) was observed to increase nearly fourfold in the Northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland and almost double in the Bothnian Sea from the 1960s until the 1980s or 1990s. The increase was followed by a decrease, which was modest in the two former subregions. Phosphate-phosphorus (PO4-P) concentrations followed a similar pattern in the Northern Baltic Proper (threefold increase and subsequent slight decrease) and Bothnian Sea (30% increase and subsequent decrease), but increased throughout the study in the Gulf of Finland, with the present concentration being threefold to the measurements made in the early 1970s. The PO4-P concentration decreased throughout the study in the Bothnian Bay. Silicate-silicon (SiO4-Si) concentrations decreased 30–50% from the early 1970s to the late 1990s and increased 20–40% thereafter in the Northern Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland, and the Bothnian Sea. Chlorophyll α showed an increase of over 150% in the Northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland from the 1970s until the early 2000s. In the Bothnian Sea the chlorophyll α concentration increased more than 180% from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, and decreased thereafter. According to these long-term observations, the Gulf of Finland and Northern Baltic Proper show clear signs of eutrophication, which may be emphasized by hydrographical changes affecting the phytoplankton communities and thus the algal biomass.

Benefits of meeting nutrient reduction targets for the Baltic Sea - a contingent valuation study in the nine coastal states

This paper presents the results of an internationally coordinated contingent valuation study on the benefits of reducing marine eutrophication in the Baltic Sea according to current policy targets. With over 10,500 respondents from the nine coastal states around the sea, we examine public willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced eutrophication and its determinants. There are considerable differences in mean WTP between countries, with Swedes being willing to pay the most and Latvians the least. The aggregate annual WTP is approximately €3600 million. In addition, we find that countries are heterogeneous in terms of the effects of income, attitudes and familiarity on WTP. Income elasticities of WTP are below 1 for all countries, ranging between 0.1 and 0.5. Attitudes and personal experience of eutrophication are important determinants of WTP, but the specific effects differ between countries. The findings can be used in economic analyses for the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive and to justify additional eutrophication reduction measures in the Baltic Sea.

Evaluation of reaching the targets of the water framework directive in the Gulf of Finland.

This paper describes the development of the EU Water Framework Directive central water quality elements from 1970 to 2010 in the Gulf of Finland, a eutrophied sub-basin of the Baltic Sea. The likelihood of accomplishing the management objectives simultaneously is assessed using Bayesian networks. The objectives of good ecological status in winter-time total nitrogen and phosphorus, summer-time chlorophyll-a and summer-time Secchi depth have not been met yet. In addition, the results indicate that it is unlikely for them to be achieved in the near future, despite the decreasing trend in nutrient concentrations over the past few years. It was demonstrated that neither phosphorus nor nitrogen alone controls summertime plankton growth. Reaching good ecological status in nutrients does not necessarily lead to good ecological status of chlorophyll-a, even though a dependency between the parameters does exist. In addition, secchi-depth status is strongly related to chlorophyll-a status in three of the four study-areas.

A novel earth observation based ecological indicator for cyanobacterial blooms

Abstract Cyanobacteria form spectacular mass occurrences almost annually in the Baltic Sea. These harmful algal blooms are the most visible consequences of marine eutrophication, driven by a surplus of nutrients from anthropogenic sources and internal processes of the ecosystem. We present a novel Cyanobacterial Bloom Indicator (CyaBI) targeted for the ecosystem assessment of eutrophication in marine areas. The method measures the current cyanobacterial bloom situation (an average condition of recent 5 years) and compares this to the estimated target level for ‘good environmental status’ (GES). The current status is derived with an index combining indicative bloom event variables. As such we used seasonal information from the duration, volume and severity of algal blooms derived from earth observation (EO) data. The target level for GES was set by using a remote sensing based data set named Fraction with Cyanobacterial Accumulations (FCA; Kahru & Elmgren, 2014) covering years 1979–2014. Here a shift-detection algorithm for time series was applied to detect time-periods in the FCA data where the level of blooms remained low several consecutive years. The average conditions from these time periods were transformed into respective CyaBI target values to represent target level for GES. The indicator is shown to pass the three critical factors set for marine indicator development, namely it measures the current status accurately, the target setting can be scientifically proven and it can be connected to the ecosystem management goal. An advantage of the CyaBI method is that it’s not restricted to the data used in the development work, but can be complemented, or fully applied, by using different types of data sources providing information on cyanobacterial accumulations.