Vladimir Hlasny

Economic Determinants of Invasion and Discovery of Nonindigenous Insects

Introductions of nonindigenous organisms into the United States have been linked to international trade. The individual contributions of imports, immigration, and international travel, however, are poorly understood because introduction dates are unavailable. We examine relationships between economic trends and discoveries of nonindegenous insects and use these relationships to infer the timing and determinants of introductions. We find that a few variables can explain much variation in species introductions and identifications. The most significant contributor to the introduction appears to be agricultural imports. Currently available proxies for academic effort are weak determinants of the probability that introduced species are identified.

Economic determinants of deregulation in the gas distribution market

Many state public commissions have deregulated their utility markets. However, evidence of welfare or efficiency improvements under deregulation is ambiguous. It is also unclear why different states adopt consumer choice, price caps, sliding-scale plans, or retain rate-of-return regulation. This study evaluates several economic factors behind deregulation in gas distribution markets using a survey of state commissions. Logistic and hazard models show that utilities’ prices and capacity, and states’ stock of own gas wells, prices of competing fuels and the regulatory climate, help explain the pattern of deregulation. Demonstration effects from surrounding markets also contribute. These factors make the propensity to use price caps versus restructuring vary regionally.

A Hierarchical Process of Applicant Screening by Korean Employers

Korean employers screen job applicants’ detailed personal backgrounds with the intent to discriminate among them. This study develops a statistical model of employers’ problem in recruiting, and identifies a hierarchical process whereby employers screen applicants’ personal characteristics in the diminishing order of their incremental predictive power or increasing order of their cost. Recognizing that benefit of marginal screening depends on information obtained through inframarginal screening, this study evaluates different elements of screening jointly using conditional count-variable and probability models, in a sample of job application forms of 365 firms. Firms are found to screen applicants systematically, according to the information content versus intrusiveness of marginal factors screened—from applicants’ appearance, through lifestyle and background, to detailed health and financial status. Companies’ working conditions, labor costs and labor-organization rate help explain the extent of companies’ screening. Working hours and mandatory compensation in the relevant market are associated positively, and bonuses and discretionary benefits negatively with the extent of screening, agreeing with theoretical predictions. Worker unionization is associated positively with screening, suggesting that unions may be protecting their membership at the cost of harming non-members and propping up firms’ traditional practices. Results for the occurrence of individual screening questions are also reported.

Evolution of Opportunities for Early Childhood Development in Arab Countries

This study uses 36 standardized population and health surveys – Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys and Pan-Arab Project for Family Health – from sixteen countries for years 2002–2015 to assess the evolution of early childhood opportunities in countries across the Arab region. Fifteen indicators for children’s basic opportunities – including qualified care for mothers during pregnancy and child delivery, children’s access to minimum nutrition, health, parental care and developmental activities – are assessed. The typical level of opportunities, inequality in opportunities across various socio-economic groups, and household characteristics responsible for the inequality are reviewed.The study concludes that access to ECD opportunities is largely inadequate and subject to vast inequality across the Arab region as well as within countries – particularly children’s height, access to iodized salt, enrolment in nurseries and preschool programs, cognitive stimulation at home, and violent disciplining. Across most countries, children’s height falls behind in the first two years of children’s life, suggesting that this is a crucial period in which a targeted institutional intervention could be most fruitful. While ECD opportunities are improving and becoming more equal over time across many countries, progress is uneven. For the rates of skilled care during child delivery, child immunization, and enrolment in preschool programs, access is deteriorating, perhaps reflecting low priority given to them in public policy. Among Arab countries, a number of indicators were deteriorating in Djibouti, Mauritania and Syria. Surprisingly, countries experiencing uprisings fare better than other Arab countries in terms of the level and trends in ECD opportunities. Regarding inequality in ECD opportunities, inequality in child mortality, rate of underweight, enrolment in preschool programs, engagement in developmental activities at home, violent disciplining of children, and child labor is deteriorating. Algeria, Djibouti and Syria have seen deterioration of inequality across many dimensions of ECD. Among household characteristics contributing to inequality, wealth accounts for 20–30 percent of inequality, parents’ education for another 25–35 percent, differences across administrative regions for 20–35 percent, and rural vs. urban residence for 5–15 percent. Interestingly, wealth affects inequality for ECD activities facilitated by markets or local governments such as nursery and preschool attendance, but not as much for non-market activities such as child disciplining and child labor. The relative influence of wealth and residence falls over time, while that of administrative regions and mother’s education rises. These findings have important policy implications. A number of the identified effects can be remedied with narrow interventions or assistance by state governments or non-governmental organizations. The study therefore provides some guidance regarding the most beneficial and cost-effective targets for limited public resources.

The stock of invasive insect species and its economic determinants.

ABSTRACT Invasions of nonindigenous organisms have long been linked to trade, but the contribution of individual trade pathways remains poorly understood, because species are not observed immediately upon arrival and the number of species arriving annually is unknown. Species interception records may count both new arrivals and species long introduced. Furthermore, the stock of invasive insect species already present is unknown. In this study, a state-space model is used to infer the stock of detected as well as undetected invasive insect species established in the United States. A system of equations is estimated jointly to distinguish the patterns of introduction, identification, and eradication. Introductions of invasive species are modeled as dependent on the volume of trade and arrival of people. Identifications depend on the public efforts at invasive species research, as well as on the established stock of invasive species that remain undetected. Eradications of both detected and undetected invasive species depend on containment and quarantine efforts, as well as on the stock of all established invasive species. These patterns are estimated by fitting the predicted number of invasive species detections to the observed record in the North American Non-Indigenous Arthropod Database. The results indicate that agricultural imports are the most important pathway of introduction, followed by immigration of people. Expenditures by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service are found to explain the species identification record well. Between three and 38 invasive insect species are estimated to be established in the United States undetected.

Commissioner Selection and Deregulation of US Gas Utilities

This study attempts to evaluate the role of reelection motives of state public service commissioners in deregulation of the US gas distribution market over the past twenty years. The reelection motives may affect commissioners’ choice regarding when and which regulatory regime – retail restructuring, price cap or sliding-scale regulation – to adopt to deregulate particular utilities from the status quo of rate-of-return regulation. The system of selection of commissioners, timing of elections, and composition of commissions are evaluated as political factors. Frequency of elections is found to be associated positively with the risk of any deregulation, albeit with different time delay. In election years, the risk of price caps rises immediately, while that of restructuring rises in subsequent years. Elections favor price caps, while appointments by state legislature favor restructuring. Democratic-leaning commissions avoid restructuring in favor of price caps.

Inter-Group Expenditure Gaps In The Arab Region And Their Determinants: Application To Egypt, Jordan, Palestine And Tunisia: Review of Income and Wealth

Economic inequality across socio‐demographic groups in the Arab region is high and growing. This paper evaluates the differentials in household expenditures across rural/urban areas, female/male‐headed households, non‐educated/educated‐headed households and non‐employed/employed‐headed households, in ten Household Income and Expenditure surveys from four Arab countries: Egypt (2008, 2010 and 2012), Jordan (2006 and 2010), Palestine (2007, 2010 and 2011) and Tunisia (2005 and 2010). Unconditional quantile regressions are used to analyze the differentials across the population distribution and to decompose them by source. Results show that Egypt and Tunisia exhibit relatively high expenditure gaps across rural/urban and non‐educated/educated groups. Expenditure gaps in Jordan and Palestine and those across non‐employed/employed and female/male headed households are more moderate. Overall, education and the return to it, geographic location and household composition play an important role in bringing about, as well as reducing, economic inequality across social groups.

The Causes and Courses of Nonviolent and Violent Delinquency among South Korean Adolescents

ABSTRACT This study combines and compares data from the Korean Youth Panel Survey and the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey to examine the effects parenting, peers, school, social structure, and personality exert on nonviolent and violent delinquency among 5,462 male and 5,103 female adolescents in South Korea. Overall, parental effects were found to be more important than peer effects, but their influence diminishes relative to that of peer effects with age. The semiparametric group-based modeling approach identifies distinct groups of stable nondelinquents, stable moderates, moderate escalators, de-escalators, and desistors (but not chronic offenders). Lastly, this study does not provide support for a public discourse that infers juvenile delinquency has increased in frequency and severity.

Catch Me If You Can: Referee–Team Relationships and Disciplinary Cautions in Football

The central hypothesis of this study is that relationships develop systematically between referees and teams and affect referees’ decisions. Referees’ travel distance to respective stadiums and count of matches refereed for respective teams are used to measure long-term relationships. We find some evidence that the count of referee–team interactions affects disciplinary cautions in lower divisions of the English Football League. This is less evident in higher divisions where, however, distances between referees’ hometowns and stadiums appear to play a role. The influence of distance further increases with the extent of referees’ experience with the respective teams.

Four Pillars of Job Applicant Screening in China

Chinese employers practice extensive personal screening of job applicants. This study identifies four manifestations of this practice by motive – statistical, customer taste-based, employer taste-based, and regulatory – and evaluates their prevalence, economic determinants and implications for firms’ performance using simultaneous-equations linear and Poisson models. Categorization of a regulatory motive for applicant sorting in China is one contribution of this study. Statistical screening is found to be related positively to employers’ capital intensity, labor-market power and private ownership, and negatively to the supply of skills in provincial labor markets, as may be expected. Customer-taste screening is more prevalent in service and sales industries, as expected, and interestingly in wealthy first-tier cities. Employer-taste screening appears more prevalent at privately-owned firms, and surprisingly in skill-intensive industries and in first-tier cities, potentially reflecting difficulty at distinguishing it from customer-taste screening. Regulatory screening is related positively to firms’ market power, capital intensity and state ownership, as expected. Statistical and customer-taste screening is associated with higher firm profitability, particularly in skill-intensive industries and in service and sales industries, respectively, while employer-taste and regulatory screening is associated with lower profitability, as expected. These results jointly validate our identification of the four pillars of applicant screening.