Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

Huge variation in Russian mortality rates 1984–94: artefact, alcohol, or what?

BACKGROUND According to published data, between 1984 and 1994 mortality rates in Russia initially underwent a rapid decline followed by an even steeper increase. In 1994, male life expectancy at birth was 57.6 years, having fallen by 6.2 years since 1990. There has been concern that such striking fluctuations in mortality are an artefact, although, among other factors, alcohol consumption has been implicated. METHODS We analysed the age-specific and cause-specific patterns of mortality decrease and increase by use of data from a newly reconstructed mortality series for Russia so that we could examine the plausibility of various explanations for the mortality trends. FINDINGS All major causes of death, with the exception of neoplasms, showed declines in mortality between 1984 and 1987 and increases between 1987 and 1994. In relative terms, these tended to be largest for the age-group 40-50 years; surprisingly, they were of the same magnitude among women and men. The largest declines and subsequent increases in proportional terms were observed for alcohol-related deaths and accidents and violence. However, pronounced effects were also seen for deaths from infections, circulatory disease, and respiratory disease. No substantial variations were seen for neoplasms. INTERPRETATION The stability of mortality from neoplasms in contrast to other causes over the period 1984-94 largely precludes the possibility that the changes in life expectancy are mainly an artefact, particularly one due to underestimation of the population. Although factors such as nutrition and health services may be involved, the evidence is that substantial changes in alcohol consumption over the period could plausibly explain the main features of the mortality fluctuations observed. These results provide a major challenge to public health in Russia and to our understanding of the determinants of alcohol consumption and its role in explaining mortality patterns within and between many other countries.

Hazardous alcohol drinking and premature mortality in Russia: a population based case-control study

BACKGROUND The reason for the low life expectancy in Russian men and large fluctuations in mortality are unknown. We investigated the contribution of alcohol, and hazardous drinking in particular, to male mortality in a typical Russian city. METHODS Cases were all deaths in men aged 25-54 years living in Izhevsk occurring between Oct 20, 2003, to Oct 3, 2005. Controls were selected at random from the city population and were frequency matched to deaths by age. Interviews with proxy informants living in the same household as cases were done between Dec 11, 2003, and Nov, 16 2005, and were obtained for 62% (1750/2835) of cases and 57% (1750/3078) of controls. We ascertained frequency and usual amount of beer, wine, and spirits consumed and frequency of consumption of manufactured ethanol-based liquids not intended to be drunk (non-beverage alcohol), and markers of problem drinking. Complete information on markers of problem drinking, frequency of alcohol consumption, education, and smoking was available for 1468 cases and 1496 controls. FINDINGS 751 (51%) cases were classed as problem drinkers or drank non-beverage alcohol, compared with 192 (13%) controls. The mortality odds ratio (OR) for these men, compared with those who either abstained or were non-problematic beverage drinkers, was 6.0 (95% CI 5.0-7.3) after adjustment for smoking and education. The mortality ORs for drinking non-beverage alcohol in the past year (yes vs no) was 9.2 (7.2-11.7) after adjustment for age. Adjustment for volume of ethanol consumed from beverages lowered the OR to 8.3 (6.5-10.7), and further adjustment for education and smoking reduced it to 7.0 (5.5-9.0). A strong direct gradient with mortality was seen for frequency of non-beverage alcohol drinking independent of volume of beverage ethanol consumed. 43% of mortality was attributable to hazardous drinking (problem drinking or non-beverage alcohol consumption, or both) adjusted for smoking and education. INTERPRETATION Almost half of all deaths in working age men in a typical Russian city may be accounted for by hazardous drinking. Our analyses provide indirect support for the contention that the sharp fluctuations seen in Russian mortality in the early 1990s could be related to hazardous drinking as indicated by consumption of non-beverage alcohol.

Economic change, crime, and mortality crisis in Russia: regional analysis

Objective: To identify which aspects of socioeconomic change were associated with the steep decline in life expectancy in Russia between 1990 and 1994. Design: Regression analysis of regional data, with percentage fall in male life expectancy as dependent variable and a range of socioeconomic measures reflecting transition, change in income, inequity, and social cohesion as independent variables. Determination of contribution of deaths from major causes and in each age group to changes in both male and female life expectancy at birth in regions with the smallest and largest declines. Setting: Regions (oblasts) of European Russia(excluding Siberia and those in the Caucasus affected by the Chechen war). Subjects: The population of European Russia. Results: The fall in life expectancy at birth varied widely between regions, with declines for men and women highly correlated. The regions with the largest falls were predominantly urban, with high rates of labour turnover, large increases in recorded crime, and a higher average but unequal distribution of household income. For both men and women increasing rates of death between the ages of 30 and 60 years accounted for most of the fall in life expectancy, with the greatest contributions being from conditions directly or indirectly associated with heavy alcohol consumption. Conclusions: The decline in life expectancy in Russia in the 1990s cannot be attributed simply to impoverishment. Instead, the impact of social and economic transition, exacerbated by a lack of social cohesion, seems to have played a major part. The evidence that alcohol is an important proximate cause of premature death in Russia is strengthened.

Changes in life expectancy in Russia in the mid-1990s

BACKGROUND Between 1987 and 1994, life expectancy in Russia declined substantially. Between 1994 and 1998, this trend reversed, and mortality rates returned to those of the early 1980s. Although the decline in life expectancy has been examined previously, much less is known about the subsequent improvement in mortality rates. We used recently published cause-specific mortality data up to 1998 to clarify this issue. METHODS Changes in cause-specific death rates at ages 15-74 years were examined. Rates for 1998 were compared with those for 1994 (the year of lowest life expectancy) and for 1991 (the year the Soviet Union broke up). FINDINGS Death rates among children fell steadily throughout the 1990s, and those in elderly people changed little. The reduction in mortality since 1994 was mainly due to a decrease in the death rate among middle-aged adults, which had increased until 1994. Deaths among those aged 15-30 years, which rose during 1991-94, remained high. Some causes of death, such as stomach cancer and road-traffic accidents, declined throughout the 1990s, whereas others, such as breast and prostate cancers and tuberculosis, increased. The decline in mortality since 1994 was, however, mainly due to a reduction in the rate of deaths from a group of causes associated with alcohol consumption. INTERPRETATION The changing life expectancy in Russia is a consequence of a complex pattern of trends in different causes of death, some of which have their origins long in the past, and others that result from contemporary circumstances. This study provides further support for the view that alcohol has played an important part in the fluctuations in life expectancy in Russia in the 1990s, although there remains a need for a much better understanding of the factors underlying these continuing changes.

Alcohol and cardiovascular mortality in Moscow; new evidence of a causal association.

BACKGROUND: In explaining recent trends in Russian mortality, alcohol drinking has often been put forward as a major factor. However, cardiovascular disease remains the major cause of death in Russia and alcohol is currently viewed as having a protective effect on heart disease. This study explores this apparent paradox by examining daily trends in deaths from cardiovascular disease in Moscow. SUBJECTS: Those dying in Moscow in the years 1993-1995. METHODS: Analysis of daily variation in deaths based on data from Moscow City death certificates. RESULTS: There is a significant increase in deaths from alcohol poisoning, accidents, and violence and cardiovascular diseases on Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This is especially marked for sudden deaths. This pattern is consistent with the known pattern of drinking in Russia, which is more likely to take place in binges than is the case in other countries. CONCLUSION: A possible causative role for alcohol in sudden cardiovascular death is suggested as there are no other obvious explanations for this pattern, which cannot be accounted for by daily variations in traditional risk factors such as smoking or lipids. Although this is inconsistent with the prevailing view in the West that alcohol is seen as cardioprotective, there is considerable supporting evidence from a necropsy study and from studies in other places with a similar pattern of drinking. In countries such as Russia, where patterns of drinking differ considerably from that in the West, binge drinking can be an important cause of sudden cardiac death. This has important implications for estimates of the amount of mortality worldwide attributable to specific risk factors and thus for national and international policy.

Causes of the Russian mortality crisis: Evidence and interpretations

Abstract During 1992–1994 life expectancy at birth in Russia dropped by 6.1 years for men and by 3.3 years for women. Very little individual-level evidence linking mortality experience with social conditions and behaviors is available. This article puts together evidence from analysis of routinely collected data on changes in Russian mortality. These data suggest that the mortality upsurge cannot be attributed to absolute deprivation, collapse of the health system or environmental pollution. Instead, psychological stress caused by the shock of an abrupt and severe economic transition is likely to have played a major role mediated in part by the adverse health effects of excessive alcohol consumption.

Understanding the toll of premature death among men in eastern Europe

The policies pursued by the Soviet Union and its satellites in central and eastern Europe have had profound implications for health. 1 2 By 1990 the probability of people dying before the age of 65 in the Soviet Union was twice that for western Europe, and for the communist countries of central and eastern Europe it was 70% higher compared with western Europe.3 Men were especially susceptible to dying prematurely. Although men in all industrialised countries live shorter lives than women, in the Soviet Union the gap between the sexes was especially large. In 1990 the life expectancy of men living in the Soviet Union was only 64 years—nine years less than in western Europe. Soviet women could expect to live to 74 years—10 years longer than men and only six years less than women in western Europe. The disadvantage in life expectancy relative to western Europe was less for countries of central and eastern Europe, but even there the gap was six years for men and five years for women. The travel writer Colin Thubron, after meeting an old woman in a village in western Siberia, observed for himself the reality that “in her experience, men died young.”4 #### Summary points Young men were especially vulnerable to the consequences of the policies pursued by the communist regimes in eastern Europe before 1990 The leading causes of the high mortality were injuries and violence and cardiovascular diseases High levels of alcohol consumption, especially binge drinking, were an important underlying factor, but smoking and poor nutrition also played a part Men who have experienced a rapid economic transition, who have least educational resources and least social support have been affected the most The pattern of premature mortality seen among men in eastern Europe is not unique and there are many parallels among …

Mortality trends and setbacks: global convergence or divergence?

Health trends over much of the past century have been generally, and notably, positive throughout the world. In several regions, however, life expectancy has declined over the past 1-2 decades. This trend suggests that the expectation that emerged in the 1960s and 1970s of worldwide gains and convergence in population health status is not guaranteed by a general deterministic process. National populations can now be clearly grouped into those that have achieved rapid gains in life expectancy; those whose gains are slower or are perhaps plateauing; and those in which the trends have reversed. Over the past two centuries, outside times of war and famine, such reversals have been rare. Exploration of these varied population health trends elucidates better the close relation between population health and the processes of economic, social, and technological change. Such analysis has shown that the health status of human populations should be a guiding criterion in the debate on sustainable development.

Alcohol and Russian mortality: a continuing crisis

BACKGROUND Russia remains in the grip of a mortality crisis in which alcohol plays a central role. In 2007, male life expectancy at birth was 61 years, while for females it was 74 years. Alcohol is implicated particularly in deaths among working-age men. AIMS To review the current state of knowledge about the contribution of alcohol to the continuing very high mortality seen among Russian adults RESULTS Conservative estimates attribute 31-43% of deaths among working-age men to alcohol. This latter estimate would imply a minimum of 170 000 excess deaths due to hazardous alcohol consumption in Russia per year. Men drink appreciably more than women in Russia. Hazardous drinking is most prevalent among people with low levels of education and those who are economically disadvantaged, partly because some of the available sources of ethanol are very cheap and easy to obtain. The best estimates available suggest that per capita consumption among adults is 15-18 litres of pure ethanol per year. However, reliable estimation of the total volume of alcohol consumed per capita in Russia is very difficult because of the diversity of sources of ethanol that are available, for many of which data do not exist. These include both illegal spirits, as well as legal non-beverage alcohols (such as medicinal tinctures). In 2006 regulations were introduced aimed at reducing the production and sale of non-beverage alcohols that are commonly drunk. These appear to have been only partially successful. CONCLUSION There is convincing evidence that alcohol plays an important role in explaining high mortality in Russia, in particular among working age men. However, there remain important uncertainties about the precise scale of the problem and about the health effects of the distinctive pattern of alcohol consumption that is prevalent in Russia today. While there is a need for further research, enough is known to justify the development of a comprehensive inter-sectoral alcohol control strategy. The recent fall in life expectancy in Russia should give a renewed urgency to attempts to move the policy agenda forward.

Patterns of smoking in Russia

BACKGROUND Tobacco is a leading cause of avoidable death in Russia but there is, as yet, relatively little information in the public domain on who is smoking and how this is changing. This information is important for those seeking to develop effective policies to tackle this issue. OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of smoking in Russia and its association with sociodemographic factors. DESIGN Cross-sectional survey on patterns of tobacco consumption. SETTING Data were collected using the New Russia Barometer, a multi-stage stratified-sample survey of the population of the Russian Federation undertaken in the summer of 1996. PARTICIPANTS Data were available on 1587 individuals (response rate 65.7%). Respondents differed little from the overall Russian population in terms of age, sex, education, and voting intention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prevalence of current and past smoking. RESULTS Smoking is common among males of all ages and in all areas. Of those aged 18–24 years, 65% smoke, rising to 73% in those aged 25–34 and then falling steadily to reach 41% in those aged 65 and older. Among women, smoking is much more common among the young (27% in those aged 18–34) than among the middle-aged and elderly (5% in those aged 55 and older), and more common among those living in urban areas than in rural areas. Smoking is also more common among men and women suffering material deprivation but there is no independent association with education. Among men, but not women, church attendance is inversely associated with smoking. In both sexes, but especially women, heavy drinking and smoking are associated. CONCLUSIONS Tobacco poses a major threat to the health of future generations in Russia, especially among women. A robust policy response is required.