Vladimir V. Kulba

Stability of Socioeconomic Systems: Scenario Investigation Methodology

Abstract We introduce a new scientific project, which supposes to create a new effective semiautomatic tool. Its expected to be used for analysis and synthesis of complex social and economical systems. A new principle named «scenario methodology» was developed in order to create this tool. We unite two main concepts: system analysis and the subject-object methodology to describe behavior of the system object. It was constructed formalized event, situation, scenario, principles and methods to define topological structures, create scenario characters, and indicate its properties. There constructed a spectrum of scenario spaces to represent different management fields: technical, technological, organization, economical, lawful and etc. It was defined scenario operations in scenario space. Thus, scenario calculus was created.

Intelligent control of power generation states

Abstract The topicality of the problem of power generating facility identification is justified against the background of European and Russian power grids interconnection. Intelligent control techniques for power generation states is presented. A technology for estimating the dynamics of power grids generating facilities participation in overall primary frequency regulation in contingencies is developed based on frequency and generating capacity time series. Process identification algorithms based on virtual models design using process data archives and knowledge bases are discussed. Associative search methods are used for identification algorithms development.

Fuzzy associative search procedure for process identification

Abstract The paper discusses smart soft sensor design methods for industrial processes. The approach proposed is based on virtual models and associative search techniques. Fuzzy model is applied in combination with production knowledgebase to compensate for the lack of lab data. Fuzzy specification of certain process variables is practiced.

Adaptive Mechanisms for Improving International Stability at the Technological Changes

Abstract Technological changes provide the progress, rises gap between rich and poor countries. Big part of third world has no possibility for adaptation to these changes and need the support. Mechanism of such support should be adaptive, corresponding to the level of this gap in a way used in adaptive control. But active bureaucracy may predict the results of the adaptive procedures and to reach own aims. In many cases support given to poor countries had no effect because of the failure of the mechanism used (corruption etc.). Methodology of creating progressive adaptive and intelligent mechanisms for the international regimes functioning is described.

Scenario analysis of management processes in the prevention and the elimination of consequences of man-made disasters

Abstract The article represents the analysis of using the possibilities of the scenario analysis methods and modelling in the process of solving the planning and management problems of measures to ensure the man-made safety of a wide range of potentially dangerous production and infrastructure facilities. The classification of emergency situations (ES) on potentially dangerous objects is given in terms of the readiness degree of the management system and technical services to eliminate the consequences of emergencies. The main stages and technology of formation of scenarios for the development of man-made disasters and emergencies are considered. The processes of modelling and synthesis of alternative scenarios for the development of ES are proposed to be implemented using the theory of functional sign graphs. An example of practical use of the scenario analysis methodology in the process of solving the problem of management the consequences of emergencies in a land production facility (building) is given.

Developing models and design methods for information management systems in space vehicles

We present a unified methodology, models, and design methods for optimal modular information control systems for a special class of objects, namely space vehicles. We develop methods and instruments for creating modular software and dataware for an onboard control unit on a space vehicle.

IDENTIFICATON-BASED APPROACH TO SOFT SENSORS DESIGN

Abstract The definition of soft sensors as an algorithmic or software system, which is intended for real-time design of production processes mathematical models from both current and historical data about these processes is given. The virtual analyzers design methods and algorithms are presented.

Scenario Analysis in the Management of Regional Security and Social Stability

Chapter represents the methodological and applied issues of development the management processes of regional security. It describes the methodology of diagnosis, structural analysis and evaluation of the major threats to regional security. The problems of countering the destructive information effects based on misinformation and manipulation technologies are examined. The results of the analysis of the main features of the management processes of regional security are presented. There are the mechanisms of the use of scenario analysis in the management of socio-economic development of the region and ensuring its protection against external and internal threats to social stability. A formalized methodology to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of management of regional security is considered. The results of the scenario study investigation of multi-graph management models of regional security are given.

Formal Models of the Scenario-indicator Approach in the Study of Security Problems in Railway Transport

Abstract The article considers a set of models of the scenario-indicator approach, including the graph model of the disturbance distribution in a complex technical system (CTS) and the scenario model of an influence of internal factors on parameters of the environment. The problem of optimizing the placement of indicators in CTS is formalized.

Optimizing the placement of the indicators on the basis of the disturbance distribution model

Abstract With the increasing size of technical systems and their structural and functional complexity the information load on the system operator from various sensors that record different system parameters is inevitably increasing. All this increases the risk of operator making improper or untimely control decisions in the case of off-nominal situations. In this paper we propose to solve this problem by placing a set of indicators in the system, basing on the analysis of the system structure and the paths of the negative disturbances distribution in the system. These indicators will provide the sufficient and non-surplus information, needed to take control decisions quickly, accurately, and taking into account the reasons of the situation and possible consequences.