Vrassidas Leopoulos

A comparison of accident analysis techniques for safety-critical man}machine systems

Abstract The complexity of modern industrial systems has prompted the development of accident analysis techniques focusing on specialised aspects of the system. Although it is difficult to find a single technique that would integrate the different types of analysis (e.g. event analysis, human error analysis, and causal factors analysis), accident analysis techniques should provide appropriate input to others investigating complementary aspects of the system. To fulfil this requirement, this article proposes a taxonomy of criteria for the assessment and revision of system engineering techniques that have been applied to accident analysis. The proposed criteria are illustrated in the context of three techniques, i.e. fault trees, sequentially Timed Events Plotting, and Petri Nets. The Piper Alpha incident has been selected as a case study to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the three accident analysis techniques. Extensions of the notation of these techniques are suggested in order to generate appropriate information for the analysis of human errors, error recovery paths and causal factors at the workplace and organisational levels. Relevance to industry Accident analysis techniques are essential in learning lessons and preventing similar unfortunate events in future. Advances in human error research provide useful opportunities for improving the effectiveness and usability of these techniques. A set of assessment criteria are proposed to provide a basis for further developments in accident analysis techniques.

Risk management for SMEs: Tools to use and how

Business endeavours have transformed to project based efforts for many years now. Most companies usually operate more than one project. Day by day risk management is earning ‘credits of appreciation’ even in the very competitive, project-based operating environment. The aim of this paper is to attempt a presentation of basic risk management tools along with their key features. Although other qualitative risk analysis tools exist, this paper presents only those with explicit quantitative analysis capabilities. Sixteen software tools have been indicated and ranked in terms of the features available. Indicative results of one of those tools are presented using a short case study. The study demonstrates that the use of appropriate software tools may enhance project-related operations and reduce costs, especially when the user is an SME.

Multiple sourcing strategies and order allocation: an ANP‐AUGMECON meta‐model

Purpose – The strategic importance of sourcing is inherent in the positioning of the purchasing operation in a supply chain and supplier evaluation – a crucial step in sourcing – is a complex multicriteria decision making (MCDM) problem. The purpose of this paper is to provide a meta‐model for supplier evaluation and order quantity allocation, based on a MCDM method, namely the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and a multiobjective mathematical programming method (MOMP), the AUGMECON.Design/methodology/approach – The proposed approach consists of two parts. The former develops and applies the ANP method in order to evaluate the suppliers in qualitative terms. The latter implements the AUGMECON method in order to find the Pareto optimal solutions for the allocation of order quantities in a multiple sourcing environment. The integrated meta‐model is exposed through an illustrative case concerning the parapharmaceutical enterprise cluster in Greece.Findings – The proposed meta‐model constitutes an efficient met...

Risk management: a competitive advantage in the purchasing function

This paper aims to explore the purchasing function on behalf of the provider, when the purchasing takes the form of a request for proposals (RfP) from the client. A methodology for handling the bidding process is presented, illustrated by a case study from the IT sector. The proposed methodology places risk as a factor for the selection of the best and final offer of the provider in addition to the traditional decision factors: delivery time, product cost and performance. The method is supported by a structured corporate memory and a decision support system based on the analytical hierarchy process.

An analytic network process approach for sales forecasting

New product sales forecast is a difficult but essential task for companies, as it drives a variety of multifunctional decisions. Most new product forecasting literature presents sophisticated statistical techniques and complex methodologies with little or no thought given to ease of implementation. As a result, there is a significant gap between what forecast academics create and what forecast models professionals really seek. This study proposes a new product sales forecast model based on an Analytic Network Process framework. The analytic network process (ANP) is a multicriteria decision analysis technique that takes into account both tangible and intangible criteria with interdependencies and feedback among them. It is argued that the proposed framework is more flexible and is more comprehensive than traditional methods and previously developed models. The ANP model is illustrated through a real example concerning the sales forecast of a new edition (book).

PERT vs. Monte Carlo Simulation along with the suitable distribution effect

Project schedule development is an iterative process that determines the planned start and finish dates for project activities. Within this process the anticipated project duration is also determined. The primary aim of this paper is to stress the importance of historical information as well as the right distribution selection in activity duration estimating, by comparing the different outcomes of scenarios when historical information is or is not used. The scenarios were implemented on 20 small- and medium-sized construction projects. Both the Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are used and the results produced under four different scenarios are compared. The first scenario uses standard PERT, while the three remaining scenarios are simulation approaches differentiated in the use of the right distribution or not and in the use of historical information or not. The findings validate that MCS is superior to PERT and moreover expose the difference in the results when the suitable distributions are selected based on accurate historical information compared to when historical information is not available.

Project termination analysis in SMEs: making the right call

Abandoning a project is difficult as it engages an enormous psychological load for project managers and team members and increases personal and professional insecurities. Organisations not only delay this kind of decisions, but also escalate their commitment into a failing project. Terminating a failing project with least of problems, releasing valuable resources and investing in higher potential projects are crucial for organisations prosperity. The aim of this study is to support the decision making when project termination is of question, help project managers and executives understand the problem context and revise their belief about terminating projects. The paper proposes a framework, based on the analytic network process. The study reveals the criteria that have to be taken into consideration in project termination decisions and provides a structured approach in order to help managers make decisions. The paper includes a case study of a troubled ERP implementation project in a SME.

Project's duration prediction: traditional tools or simulation?

Project schedule development with CPM cannot handle uncertainty, thus PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are the most frequently used methods from best-in-class companies. This study compares the results of the standard MCS with those of PERT and addresses the incorporation of project risk management into the two approaches. It defines the related advantages and disadvantages, found in the literature and is illustrated through a case study. The findings reveal that the modelling of risk is more robust when the MCS is used, leading to the conclusion that simulation is a more efficient tool than the other stochastic methods.

Quality management systems development based on a production systems taxonomy

Purpose – This paper aims to propose a method for the development of quality management systems (QMS) that allows the consultant that undertakes the support of the organisation to take advantage of a corporate memory. The consultant develops a new QMS based on a preliminary draft that is created using suitable reference processes from a library, selected according to the features of the organisations production system. Design/methodology/approach – The method adopts a taxonomy of production systems, based on a set of features (e.g. degree of the products’ customisation, form of purchasing, etc.) and creates a library of reference processes that satisfy the requirements of the standard and are suitable for each particular type of production system. Findings – The QMS developed according to the proposed method satisfy both the requirements of the standard ISO 9001 and the needs of the organisation in which the QMS is installed in the biggest possible degree. The duration and cost of the project for the new...

Assuring the managerial capability of public organizations implementing projects

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the requirements for assuring the managerial capability of organisations implementing projects of public interest. It presents the case of Greece, and the family of newly developed set of standards concerning the managerial maturity of public organisations and the management of projects funded by European Union support frameworks.Design/methodology/approach – Using the case study approach, the paper presents the current status in Greek public administration concerning project management. Further, it presents how the new set of standards improves public management and public organization maturity for managing projects.Findings – The paper presents the problems faced and the drawbacks encountered from the management of large programmes and projects from public bodies in Greece. Further, it presents the structure of a system for assuring managerial capability (SAMC) in Project Management and how its application can improve management efficiency and effectiven...