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Featured researches published by Vuslat Us.


Applied Economics | 2004

Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under the monetary conditions index: an alternative policy rule

Vuslat Us

This study analyses monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey using a small structural macroeconomic model. The core equations of the model consist of aggregate demand, wage-price setting, uncovered interest rate parity, foreign sector and a monetary policy rule. The aim of the paper is to analyse the disinflation path, the output gap, the output level, the exchange rate and the interest rate, and also the output–inflation variance frontier of the economy under various scenarios. The first scenario assumes that a standard Taylor rule is implemented as the policy rule. In the alternative scenario, instead of the standard Taylor rule, the MCI, Monetary Conditions Index – combination of the changes in the short-term real interest rate and in the real effective exchange rate in a single variable – is used as a policy instrument. The results indicate that the economy stabilizes much more quickly and shows significantly less volatility under this new setting. Therefore, the paper concludes that the policymakers should consider using MCI as an instrument when conducting monetary policy.


Applied Economics Letters | 2017

A Dynamic Approach to Analyzing the Effect of the Global Crisis on Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from the Turkish Banking Sector

Vuslat Us

ABSTRACT This article analyses the effect of the global crisis on the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Turkish banking sector by using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical findings suggest that NPLs present persistence, which is more evident after the crisis, while other regressors have also persistent effects in the post-crisis period. Moreover, NPLs are mostly shaped by bank-specific variables before the crisis, whereas, after the crisis, NPLs are also driven by macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In particular, the post-crisis significance of GDP, policy rate and sovereign debt shows that robust economic activity, tight monetary policy and strong fiscal balances restrict NPLs, thereby enhancing financial stability. The significance of inflation in both sub-periods shows that commitment to price stability objective is indispensable for limiting NPLs and promoting financial stability. In the period ahead, the speed and the direction of normalization in global monetary policies may determine the course of financial conditions, which, therefore, have implications regarding NPL dynamics and financial stability.


Emerging Markets Finance and Trade | 2017

The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Before and After the Crisis: Challenges and Policy Implications for Turkish Banks

Vuslat Us

ABSTRACT This article examines the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Turkish banking sector via panel data estimation techniques. In order to see the effect of the global crisis and whether this effect changes across ownership, the analysis is conducted in subperiods covering the precrisis and the postcrisis periods and estimations are repeated by an ownership breakdown. Findings show that the determinants of NPLs have changed, and macroeconomic and policy-related determinants have higher significance after the crisis. Accordingly, strong economic activity and sound fiscal policy improve loan quality, while higher policy rate induces NPLs. Meanwhile, the significance of bank-specific determinants depends on ownership. Yet, a common theme applies suggesting that asset size should grow in favor of loans, but this should be backed with efficient loan monitoring, while capital adequacy is stringent enough to limit NPLs.


Journal of Policy Modeling | 2004

Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy

Vuslat Us


Emerging Markets Finance and Trade | 2003

Analyzing the Persistence of Currency Substitution Using a Ratchet Variable: The Turkish Case

Vuslat Us


Emerging Markets Finance and Trade | 2007

Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in the Turkish Economy Under an Inflation-Targeting Framework

Vuslat Us


Physica A-statistical Mechanics and Its Applications | 2007

Dedollarization in Turkey after decades of dollarization: A myth or reality?

Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan; Vuslat Us


Archive | 2009

What Drives Dollarization in Turkey

Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan; Vuslat Us


Physica A-statistical Mechanics and Its Applications | 2005

Optimal Univariate Expectations under High and Persistent Inflation: New Evidence From Turkey

Vuslat Us; Kivilcim Metin Özcan


Finance Research Letters | 2017

Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis

Vuslat Us

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