Vyacheslav Baburin

Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of hazardous hydrological phenomena in Slavyansk municipal district

In 2012, the damage costs of floods in Russia amounted to about €300m, and these floods have caused nearly 200 fatalities (Kotlyakov et al. in Reg Res Rus 3(1):32–39, 2013). Risk assessment is one of the most pressing scientific topics in Russia, but most of the works are devoted to natural hazards assessment. The purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of hazardous hydrological phenomena on society. The field research was conducted in the Slavyansk municipal district in the Krasnodar region (the south-western part of Russia), which is a highly populated coastal territory with a high frequency of hazardous hydrological events. Modified methods of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Affairs for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) were used for potential economic damage calculation. The paper did not only focus on direct, tangible risks, but also included social risk (i.e. risk to life and health). Social vulnerability has been calculated directly as a percentage of vulnerable people, estimated in opinion polls, while in many recent papers the social vulnerability index was calculated as a combination of several statistical indicators. The resulting percentage of vulnerable people was converted to numbers of potential victims. Finally, the social risk was expressed by financial indicators in terms of the cost of the value of statistical life lost (Mrozek and Taylor in J Policy Anal Manag 21(2):253–270, 2002; Viscusi and Aldy in J Risk Uncertain 27(1):5–76, 2003). Social risk can be underestimated in comparison with economic risk because of a low “value of life” in Russia (no life insurance, neglecting of basic safety rules, etc.) (Guriev in Myths of economics, Alpina Business Books, Moscow, 2009).

Does economic-geographical position affect innovation processes in Russian regions?

A favourable economic-geographical position (EGP) of regions and cities is one of the factors of their socio-economic development. Economic agents can take advantages of their proximity to the major markets of goods and services, thereby reducing their transport costs and increasing their profitability. In the sphere of innovation, proximity to the innovation centres may also significantly affect the creation of new knowledge and technologies, due to the existence of tacit knowledge and knowledge spillovers. The authors propose the term ‘innovation-geographical position’ by analogy with EGP. It has been demonstrated that location matters to regional innovation output. If there is 1 % more new technologies in neighbouring regions, there are approximately 0.35–0.58 % more newly created technologies in the target region. Proximity to the world centres of new technologies has even greater impact.

Assessing the Potential of Economic-Geographical Position for Russian Regions

On the basis of the review of the scientific literature, the category of economic-geographical position (EGP) is formalized. The developed method of international and interregional EGP potential assessment is based on the use of gravity models; in the future, it can be widely used in regional studies to explore the benefits of the spatial location of objects (countries, regions, cities, etc.). These calculations for Russian regions have showed a significant spatial differentiation. The regions located near Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations have the maximum potential of interregional EGP, the potential decreases uniformly to the east. The maximum international EGP potential is concentrated in the regions on the coast of the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Sea of Japan. The potential of the Kaliningrad region is in 5.6 times higher than it is for the Tyva Republic. In addition, it is revealed a significant increase in the total EGP potential in the 2000s, and its shift to the southern regions of the Far East due to the growth of the Asia-Pacific economies. The regions with a high and low efficiency of EGP use are revealed. The results are used to identify the connections between the EGP potential and the indicators of socio-economic development. It is found that a favorable EGP is one of the factors for gross regional product growth, the growth of investment and foreign trade, migration growth and spread of new technologies. Formalizing EGP as a category allows to use it to predict the spatial changes in the socioeconomic development of Russia.

Оценка Эффективности Региональных Инновационных Систем в России (Efficiency Assessment of Russian Regional Innovation Systems)

Russian Abstract: Затраты на поддержку инновационной активности на региональном уровне в России ежегодно растут. Фактически в ведущих регионах создана необходимая рыночная инфраструктура поддержки. Наблюдается сильная дифференциация между регионами по результатам инновационной деятельности. Появляется необходимость в оценке эффективности региональных инновационных систем (РИС). Одним из индикаторов являются патенты на изобретения. В работе с помощью производственной функции знаний (ПФЗ) исследуются факторы, оказывающие воздействие на патентную активность. Для оценки использовались как данные о заявках на патенты Роспатента, так и зарубежные заявки. Основная гипотеза состояла в том, что патентная активность в России слабо поддается моделированию, так как сильно зависит от деятельности местных властей и интересов местной научной элиты. Эконометрический анализ показал, что существует возможность выделить некоторые ведущие факторы (человеческий капитал, затраты на научные исследования и др.), а поэтому возможна оценка эффективности РИС на основе соотношения этих факторов и патентной активности. Авторами разработана и предложена методика оценки. Среди лидеров преобладают регионы с крупнейшими агломерациями. В работе показано, что РИС большинства ведущих регионов с середины 2000-х гг. теряют свою эффективность.English Abstract: The cost for supporting of innovation activities at the regional level in Russia is growing. In fact, the necessary infrastructure in the leading regions has been created. But there is a strong differentiation between the regions in their results of innovation. It is important to assess the effectiveness of regional innovation systems (RIS). One of the indicators is patents. In this paper, factors affecting patent activity were investigated, using the production function of knowledge (PFK). For verification reasons, the data on Russian patent applications (as a dependent variable) was supplemented by PCT-applications. The main hypothesis was that the patent activity in Russia couldn’t be modelled, because it greatly depends on the activities of local authorities and the interests of the local scientific community. The econometric analysis shows that it is possible to highlight some of the major factors (human capital, the costs of research, etc.). Therefore, it was useful RIS efficiency estimation, based on the relationship of the identified factors and patent activity. The authors have developed and proposed an assessment methodology. The regions with the largest agglomerations (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, etc.) are among the leaders. It is shown that most of the RIS of the leading regions lose their effectiveness since the mid-2000s.

Регионы-новаторы и инновационная периферия России. Исследование диффузии инноваций на примере ИКТ-продуктов (Regions-Innovators and Innovative Periphery of Russia. Study of ICT-Products Diffusion)

Russian Abstract: В статье исследуется потенциал российских регионов к восприятию новых продуктов в сфере информационно-коммуникационных технологий (ИКТ). В качестве индикатора применяется число зарегистрированных абонентских терминалов сотовой связи на 100 жителей. Выявлены четыре стадии диффузии с характерными факторами распространения. По скорости диффузии выделены пять кластеров регионов в соответствии с моделью Э. Роджерса: новаторы, ранние последователи, раннее большинство, позднее большинство и отстающие. С помощью модели Басса, описывающей логистическую кривую, дана оценка доли новаторов в региональных сообществах. Предложен интегральный индекс инновативности, описывающий внедрение трех технологий. В статье показана роль иерархической диффузии и фактора географического положения. Изучение процессов диффузии новых ИКТ-продуктов приводит к выявлению пяти устойчивых кластеров регионов России.English Abstract: The potential of new products absorption in Russia is explored in the article. Active mobile subscriptions were used as a proper indicator. There are several stages of diffusion with corresponding factors. Five clusters of regions were identified, corresponding to stages of diffusion by E. Rogers: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. Bass model application helped to evaluate the proportion of innovators in regional communities. An integral index of innovativeness was introduced. Hierarchical model of diffusion from the main centres to secondary prevails in Russia. Factor of geographical location also play a crucial role. The research of diffusion processes lead to the identification of five stable regional clusters in Russia.