Vytautas Petrauskas

Fuzzy expert maps for risk management systems

After widely known implementations of perfect ideas, expressed by researchers R. Axelrod, L. Zadeh and B. Kosko, the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) became an important tool for decision makers in various practical areas, such as business evaluation, risk management, international policy making, medical diagnostics and others. The principle possibility of FCM involvement into a regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS) was presented during the US/EU Baltic International Symposium in Klaipeda in May 2006. Todaypsilas experience permits to extend the concept of FCM nodes, including additional fuzzy expert knowledge and enriching the representation of real situations under consideration. This paper presents a systematic approach, based on the authorspsila research, to the idea of FCM extension and its transformation into a rule-based fuzzy expert map (FEM), presents a simplified fragment of FEM use for a port security system, and discusses further perspectives of developing new tools for decision makers in risk management systems in general.

On Fundamentals of Global Systems Control Science (GSCS)

Globalization leads us towards dealing with very complex systems that consist of evolving, overlapping, and interacting “socio-technical fabrics”. An existing general systems control theory cannot cope with problems occurring in such systems. This chapter is, first of all, an attempt to present an entirely new approach to the adequacy of system model and reality, based on a causal correspondence between information and knowledge obtained from a reality and its model. Secondly, the chapter suggests two possible control loops: one is meant to improve the model and another is the way to attain a certain planned goal to be reached by our reality. Four doctrines are presented as the basic principles of general fuzzy systems control theory (GFSCT) aiming to deal with the real fuzzy systems operating and functioning in a multiple space-time coordinate system. The minimization of a certain potential V-function is considered as a universal principle for existence of each system in the real world. Moreover, decentralized stochastic control is proposed to improve our reality and guarantee its lifetime unlimited behavior with a proper degree of certainty and space-time stability.

Fuzzy Hyperinference-Based Pattern Recognition

The paper presents a new approach to the problem of pattern recognition. First of all, here is emphasized that the problem itself is fuzzy enough. Later three following novelties of the approach are disclosed: 1) the rule-based fuzzy inference, concerning the measure of patterns’ similarity, is enriched by an idea of hyperinference; 2) a description of the main pattern recognition process is based on Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) reasoning procedure and 3) rule weights in T-S procedure are defined, solving special linear or piecewise linear programming problem (LPP or PWLPP), constructed according to the certain fuzzy experts’ information. The proposed approach was used successfully for recognition of healthy people and those who suffer from certain illness (for example, an atherosclerosis). The classification was performed according to person’s clinical posturograms (stabilograms). At the end of this paper experimental results are presented as well as acknowledgement to all anonymous participants of the experiments.

Fuzzy expert maps: The new approach

The paper presents a new approach to fuzzy knowledge management and provides fuzzy expert maps (FEM) as a tool. FEM is a systematic extension for a well-known paradigm of fuzzy cognitive maps combined with open fuzzy control systems. Transparent examples from international politics are presented to illustrate the entire extension chain. Recommendations for further research are given as well.

Statistical Evaluation of Four Technologies used for Intelectualization of Smart Home Environment

This paper addresses the issues of decision-making methods and their usage capabilities for intelligent control based on resident’s habits. Learning from the behaviour of the resident is essential for the system to adapt and provide intelligent control based on behaviour patterns. Different homes have different conditions and habits which have to be taken into account for the intelligent system to be useful. However, even deeply ingrained habits are subject to change over time. Therefore, an intelligent system has to respond to changing and diverse environment. Various decision-making methods have the potential of a number of benefits in providing intelligent control for the Smart home systems. In this paper, concurrent decision-making methods, including Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic, Linear Programing and Bayesian, are employed with particular algorithms in order to provide control based on resident’s habits. These approaches are tested and compared within experimental scenarios for intelligent lightning control. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.itc.44.3.11965

Dynamic SWOT analysis as a tool for ROMS

Regional oceanic modeling systems (ROMS) as multi-purpose and multi-disciplinary entities are too complicated to be based on strictly quantitative mathematical descriptions. A verbal qualitative presentation of the regional oceanic ecosystem is inevitable. At the moment well known SWOT (strengths/weaknesses/opportunities/threats) analysis mechanism is highly recommended for the evaluation of ecosystems behavior. Unfortunately such an approach permits us to cope with the problems of their static. Thorough modeling, monitoring and prediction require certain level of dynamics. The paper proposes the joint SWOT analysis and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach for the purpose mentioned above and shows that such a hybridization enables us to enrich ROMS with the new tool.

Risk Evaluation: The Paradigm and Tools

The paper is devoted to: (1) investigate risk as an inherently fundamental entity that exists in all aspects of our life; (2) show that up until now, the majority of available risk definitions are suitable only for particular application areas; (3) propose a relatively unified risk paradigm and a fuzzy logic based risk evaluation methodology and (4) to present a set of computerized risk evaluation tools. This paper confirms and strongly advocates the possibility to use the newly developed, unified/generalized and theoretically based risk control methodology and a set of networked ICT tools for risk evaluation, mitigation and monitoring. Our conclusions emphasize that such methodology, if delivered through a networked academic community would increase the competences of university graduates and enable professionals from governmental and public organizations to properly maintain problems associated with risk and risk control.

Intellectualized Home Environment as a Complex System

In the analytical part of this report several EC projects, developing an idea to create the intellectualized home environment (IHE) serving for peoples’ comfort on the base of multiple internet things and services (IoT&S), are discussed, and the EC HORIZON 2020 program perspectives in this field are presented.

Functional organization of an artificially intellectualized home environment based on mandami and takagi-sugeno procedures

A substantial amount of scientific research and publications in the smart home domain deal with different aspects of fuzzy logic application. However, we feel there is a general lack of complex modelling done of the whole smart home environment. So, the main goal of this paper is threefold: 1) to present a virtual model of a smart home environment to be intellectualized, 2) to demonstrate the efficiency of Mamdani type inference procedure in modelling of intellectual behaviour of the environment and 3) to show that it is possible to minimize the quantity of fuzzy rules by taking the hierarchical approach and adding the Takagi- Sugeno inference procedure to empower it. The results of computerized modelling and simulation are delivered in the paper demonstrating the practical viability and efficiency of the theoretical approach. The model of the intelligent home environment was used in two projects. Since a formalized analytical method for evaluating the sensitivity of system parameters still does not exist, the experimental sensitivity simulation in our case is performed and presented in this paper. Characteristics obtained in the modelled virtual environment can be easily expanded and used in a real home environment by changing pixels into real coordinates and the light intensity into other real variables.

On continuous Petri-net-type fuzzy cognitive maps: generalized approach

The work presents the generalized to the continuous type Petri nets and continuous fuzzy cognitive map and emphases: 1) the necessity to introduce continuous time dimension when practical interrelations in the real-world are modeled and investigated; and 2) the common description for both models which up till now were considered as different. Simplified examples of modeling from the field of international relations are presented.