W. A. Lahoz

Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming

Abstract A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on ∼25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0°–90°E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model’s lower boundary), with an additional re...

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder 183 GHz H2O Measurements

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) microwave limb sounder (MLS) makes measurements of thermal emission at 183.3 GHz which are used to infer the concentration of water vapor over a pressure range of 46 – 0.2 hPa (∼20 to ∼60 km). We provide a validation of MLS H2O by analyzing the integrity of the measurements, by providing an error characterization, and by comparison with data from other instruments. It is estimated that version 3 MLS H2O retrievals are accurate to within 20–25% in the lower stratosphere and to within 8–13 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The precision of a single profile is estimated to be ∼0.15 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in the midstratosphere and 0.2 ppmv in the lower and upper stratosphere. In the lower mesosphere the estimate of a single profile precision is 0.25–0.45 ppmv. During polar winter conditions, H2O retrievals at 46 hPa can have a substantial contribution from climatology. The vertical resolution of MLS H2O retrievals is ∼5 km.

Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming

An atypically early major stratospheric sudden warming in mid-Dec 1998 resulted in an abnormally warm and weak polar vortex through most of the 1998–99 winter. The first major warming in nearly 8 years, it was only the second major warming observed before the end of Dec, and strongly resembled the previous Dec 1987 major warming in several characteristics atypical of major warmings later in winter. 3D mechanistic model simulations reproduced most characteristics of the Dec 1998 major warming, including the magnitudes of zonal mean easterlies and temperature increases and the 3D evolution of the flow, paving the way for more detailed future studies of the mechanisms involved in this unusual event.

The Splitting of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere, September 2002: Dynamical Evolution

Abstract The polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) split dramatically during September 2002. The large-scale dynamical effects were manifest throughout the stratosphere and upper troposphere, corresponding to two distinct cyclonic centers in the upper troposphere–stratosphere system. High-resolution (T511) ECMWF analyses, supplemented by analyses from the Met Office, are used to present a detailed dynamical analysis of the event. First, the anomalous evolution of the SH polar vortex is placed in the context of the evolution that is usually witnessed during spring. Then high-resolution fields of potential vorticity (PV) from ECMWF are used to reveal several dynamical features of the split. Vortex fragments are rapidly sheared out into sheets of high (modulus) PV, which subsequently roll up into distinct synoptic-scale vortices. It is proposed that the stratospheric circulation becomes hydrodynamically unstable through a significant depth of the troposphere–stratosphere system as the polar vortex elo...

Validation studies using multiwavelength Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) observations of stratospheric aerosol

Validation studies of multiwavelength Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) observations of stratospheric aerosol are discussed. An error analysis of the CLAES aerosol extinction data is presented. Aerosol extinction precision values are estimated at latitudes and times at which consecutive Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) orbits overlap. Comparisons of CLAES aerosol data with theoretical Mie calculations, based upon in situ particle size measurements at Laramie, Wyoming, are presented. CLAES aerosol data are also compared to scaled aerosol extinction measured by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) and Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiments. Observed and calculated extinction spectra, from CLAES, Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) data, are compared. CLAES extinction data have precisions between 10 and 25%, instrumental biases near 30%, and accuracies between 33 and 43%.

Assimilation of ozone profiles and total column measurements into a global general circulation model

[1] Ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument flown on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and total ozone columns measured by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) on board the Second European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2) have been assimilated using a troposphere-stratosphere data assimilation system. The analysis system is based on the global analysis system used for operational analysis of the stratosphere at the Meteorological Office from 1991 to 2000. Three assimilation runs have been completed for a three-week period in April 1997 to test the advantage of using a combination of MLS and GOME observations, compared with the assimilation of each observation data set separately. The statistical information produced by the assimilation system shows that the combination of MLS and GOME observations via the assimilation process produces ozone fields that show improvement compared with analysis fields produced by the assimilation of either MLS or GOME separately. Comparison of the analyzed ozone fields with independent observations (ozonesondes, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) profiles and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone column measurements) corroborates these results and shows that the combined MLS and GOME ozone analyses provide a realistic representation of the atmospheric ozone distribution. The global root-mean-square residual (difference between the analyses and independent observations) against HALOE and TOMS observations is comparable to the quoted errors in the HALOE and TOMS instruments (5% in each case).

Data Assimilation for the Earth System

Data assimilation: aims and basic concepts.- Bayesian estimation. Optimal interpolation. Statistical linear estimation.- Variational assimilation. Adjoint equations.- Control operators and fundamental control functions in data assimilation.- Solvability of variational data assimilation problems and iterative algorithms.- Fundamental control functions and error analysis.- A posteriori validation of assimilation algorithms.- to initialization.- Digital filter initialization.- Treating model errors in 3-D and 4-D data assimilation.- Observing the atmosphere.- Atmospheric modelling.- Operational implementation of variational data assimilation.- Quality control: methodology and applications.- Statistical assimilation of satellite data: method, algorithms, examples.- Theoretical impact assessment of satellite data on weather forecasts.- The correlation features of the inverse problem solution in atmospheric remote sensing.- Assimilation of remote sensing observations in Numerical Weather Prediction.- Research satellites.- The structure and evolution of the atmosphere.- to atmospheric photochemical modelling.- Ozone assimilation.- Multivariate chemical data assimilation.- Uses of ocean data assimilation and ocean state estimation.- Altimeter covariances and errors treatment.- Assimilation of hydrographic data and analysis of model bias.- Land surface processes.- Assimilation of land surface data.- Land data assimilation systems.- Reanalysis.

Reconstruction and Simulation of Stratospheric Ozone Distributions during the 2002 Austral Winter

Abstract Satellite-based solar occultation measurements during the 2002 austral winter have been used to reconstruct global, three-dimensional ozone distributions. The reconstruction method uses correlations between potential vorticity and ozone to derive “proxy” distributions from the geographically limited occultation observations. Ozone profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM III), and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III (SAGE II and III) are incorporated into the analysis. Because this is one of the first uses of SAGE III data in a scientific analysis, preliminary validation results are shown. The reconstruction method is described, with particular emphasis on uncertainties caused by noisy and/or multivalued correlations. The evolution of the solar occultation data and proxy ozone fields throughout the winter is described, and differences with respect to previous winters are characterized. The results support the i...

Lagrangian Transport Calculations Using UARS Data. Part I: Passive Tracers

Abstract The transport of passive tracers observed by the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is simulated using computed three-dimensional trajectories of ≈ 100 000 air parcels initialized on a stratosphere grid, with horizontal winds provided by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimilation system, and vertical (cross isentropic) velocities computed using a fast radiation code. The conservative evolution of trace constituent fields is estimated over 20–30-day periods by assigning to each parcel the observed mixing ratio of the long-lived trace gases N20 and CH4 observed by the Cryogenic Limb Army Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) and H2O observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the initialization date. Agreement between calculated and observed fields is best inside the polar vortex and is better in the Arctic than in the Antarctic. Although there is not always detailed agreement outside the vortex, the trajectory calculations still reproduce the average large-scale characteristics of passi...

Spectral signatures of polar stratospheric clouds and sulfate aerosol

Abstract Multiwavelength observations of Antarctic and midlatitude aerosol by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) experiment on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are used to demonstrate a technique that identifies the location of polar stratospheric clouds. The technique discussed uses the normalized area of the triangle formed by the aerosol extinctions at 925, 1257, and 1605 cm−1 (10.8, 8.0, and 6.2 μm) to derive a spectral aerosol measure M of the aerosol spectrum. Mie calculations for spherical particles and T-matrix calculations for spheroidal particles are used to generate theoretical spectral extinction curves for sulfate and polar stratospheric cloud particles. The values of the spectral aerosol measure M for the sulfate and polar stratospheric cloud particles are shown to be different. Aerosol extinction data, corresponding to temperatures between 180 and 220 K at a pressure of 46 hPa (near 21-km altitude) for 18 August 1992, are used to demonstrate the technique. Thermodyn...