W. Brent Daniel

Advancing a Framework to Enable Characterization and Evaluation of Data Streams Useful for Biosurveillance

In recent years, biosurveillance has become the buzzword under which a diverse set of ideas and activities regarding detecting and mitigating biological threats are incorporated depending on context and perspective. Increasingly, biosurveillance practice has become global and interdisciplinary, requiring information and resources across public health, One Health, and biothreat domains. Even within the scope of infectious disease surveillance, multiple systems, data sources, and tools are used with varying and often unknown effectiveness. Evaluating the impact and utility of state-of-the-art biosurveillance is, in part, confounded by the complexity of the systems and the information derived from them. We present a novel approach conceptualizing biosurveillance from the perspective of the fundamental data streams that have been or could be used for biosurveillance and to systematically structure a framework that can be universally applicable for use in evaluating and understanding a wide range of biosurveillance activities. Moreover, the Biosurveillance Data Stream Framework and associated definitions are proposed as a starting point to facilitate the development of a standardized lexicon for biosurveillance and characterization of currently used and newly emerging data streams. Criteria for building the data stream framework were developed from an examination of the literature, analysis of information on operational infectious disease biosurveillance systems, and consultation with experts in the area of biosurveillance. To demonstrate utility, the framework and definitions were used as the basis for a schema of a relational database for biosurveillance resources and in the development and use of a decision support tool for data stream evaluation.

An epidemiological model of spatial coupling for trips longer than the infectious period.

One of the standard methods of accounting for inter-population disease spread in equation-based epidemiology models is through a transportation operator. Implicit in the use of the transportation operator, however, is an assumption that daily travel volumes are small compared to overall population sizes, an assumption that can break down for modern rates of international travel or local commuter traffic. Alternative types of coupling have been proposed in the limit that trip durations are much shorter than the infectious period. We present an extension of these phenomenological models that relaxes both assumptions. We show that the approach produces more accurate results when assessing the impact of mitigative actions using modern travel volumes.

Randomized discrepancy bounded local search for transmission expansion planning

In recent years the transmission network expansion planning problem (TNEP) has become increasingly complex. As the TNEP is a non-linear and non-convex optimization problem, researchers have traditionally focused on approximate models of power flows to solve the TNEP. Existing approaches are often tightly coupled to the approximation choice. Until recently these approximations have produced results that are straight-forward to adapt to the more complex (real) problem. However, the power grid is evolving towards a state where the adaptations are no longer easy (e.g. large amounts of limited control, renewable generation) and necessitates new approaches. Recent work on deterministic Discrepancy Bounded Local Search (DBLS) has shown it to be quite effective in addressing this question. DBLS encapsulates the complexity of power flow modeling in a black box that may be queried for information about the quality of proposed expansions. In this paper, we propose a randomization strategy that builds on DBLS and dramatically increases the computational efficiency of the algorithm.

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.