W. Douglass Shaw

A discrete-choice model of recreational participation, site choice, and activity valuation when complete trip data are not available

Abstract A discrete-choice model of the demand for site-specific recreational activities is developed and estimated. It simultaneously predicts both how many trips the individual will take and which site will be chosen on each trip. The model is formulated to estimate demand when the data set reports the total number of trips in a given time period, but the actual destinations for only a subset of the total. The model also includes a correction for sample-selectivity bias. The application is marine recreational fishing. The consumers surplus associated with any change in supply conditions is derived and used to assess the impact of changes in species availability.

Testing the Validity of Contingent Behavior Trip Responses

While a number of validity tests exist for contingent valuation data, to date there are very few literature examples for contingent behavior (CB) data. The objective of this study is to test the validity of CB trip data for different levels of rock climbing access using data from surveys implemented before and after a policy restricting recreational access was imposed. Results from generalized Negative Binomial and seemingly unrelated Poisson regression models show significant sensitivity to scope, and suggest that CB data may be a valuable supplement to revealed preference data when policy proposals are outside the range of historical conditions. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

The value of water levels in water‐based recreation: A pooled revealed preference/contingent behavior model

In this paper we present estimated recreation values for preventing a decline in water levels at, and even the total loss of, a large western lake that is drying up. We use a Poisson version of the count data travel cost model; however, in addition to and in combination with revealed preference (RP) data, we employ contingent behavior (CB) responses to hypothetical questions on alternative water levels and number of trips. The pooled model used allows for tests of differences between results using RP and CB data. This particular pooled RP/CB approach has not to our knowledge previously been applied to examine the values of alternative water quantities in water-based recreation.

Travel cost models of the demand for rock climbing.

In this paper we estimate the demand for rock climbing and calculate welfare measures for changing access to a number of climbs at a climbing area. In addition to the novel recreation application, we extend the travel cost methodology by combining the double hurdle count data model (DH) with a multinomial logit model of site-choice. The combined model allows us simultaneously to explain the decision to participate and to allocate trips among sites. The application is to climbers who visit one of the premiere rock-climbing areas in the northeastern United States and its important substitute sites. We also estimate a conventional welfare measure, which is the maximum WTP to avoid loss of access to the climbing site.

Risk perceptions of arsenic in tap water and consumption of bottled water

The demand for bottled water has increased rapidly over the past decade, but bottled water is extremely costly compared to tap water. The convenience of bottled water surely matters to consumers, but are others factors at work? This manuscript examines whether purchases of bottled water are associated with the perceived risk of tap water. All of the past studies on bottled water consumption have used simple scale measures of perceived risk that do not correspond to risk measures used by risk analysts. We elicit a probability-based measure of risk and find that as perceived risks rise, expenditures for bottled water rise.

Treating and Drinking Well Water in the Presence of Health Risks from Arsenic Contamination: Results from a U.S. Hot Spot

The Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974 regulates water quality in public drinking water supply systems but does not pertain to private domestic wells, often found in rural areas throughout the country. The recent decision to tighten the drinking water standard for arsenic from 50 parts per billion (ppb) to 10 ppb may therefore affect some households in rural communities, but may not directly reduce health risks for those on private wells. The article reports results from a survey conducted in a U.S. arsenic hot spot, the rural area of Churchill County, Nevada. This area has elevated levels of arsenic in groundwater. We find that a significant proportion of households on private wells are consuming drinking water with arsenic levels that pose a health risk. The decision to treat tap water for those on private wells in this area is modeled, and the predicted probability of treatment is used to help explain drinking water consumption. This probability represents behaviors relating to the households perception of risk.

Valuing the Loss of Rock Climbing Access in Wilderness Areas: A National-Level, Random-Utility Model

Given potential growth in outdoor rock climbing and its concentration on public lands, the management of climbing access in wilderness areas is an issue of considerable national controversy in the United States. A proposed rule change by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) would prohibit the use of fixed climbing protection in wilderness areas—effectively eliminating safe access to many sites. Using a unique data set on rock climbing trips, a repeated-nested logit, random-utility model is used to analyze economic losses to climbers resulting from the USFS proposal. Results indicate that the USFS proposal may constitute a major regulatory change. (JEL Q26)

Option Wealth and Bequest Values: The Value of Protecting Future Generations from the Health Risks of Nuclear Waste Storage

To assess the relative importance of current costs and future bene. ts of nuclear waste storage, we develop a simple model of bequest value. The basic model of nonparternalistic altruism is extended to account for the uncertain nature of the externality. The model is applied estimating the social costs of storing high-level nuclear waste at a central repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. We find that the total ex ante social cost per household associated with health and safety risks is

Variation in the value of travel time savings and its impact on the benefits of managed lanes

17,128 annually. Over half is attributed to a desire to protect future generations from the risk of nuclear waste storage. (JEL Q48)

Brand Choice and Purchase Frequency Revisited: An Application to Recreation Behavior

This paper examines the variation in the value of travel time savings (VTTS) for travelers with a managed lane (ML) option when taking an ordinary trip versus a trip that is unusual in some way. VTTS estimates vary substantially depending on the urgency of the trip made. At the low end, the mean VTTS for a traveler who wants to make extra stops and still arrive on time is approximately 10% higher than that for an ordinary trip. At the high end, a traveler running late for an appointment shows a mean VTTS that is approximately 300% higher than that for an ordinary trip. These estimates vary widely over the population of travelers. In light of these variations, the value of an uncongested travel alternative (such as MLs) is examined and found to be greatly undervalued if using typical VTTS estimates.