W.F. van Raaij

Integrating Prospect Theory and Stackelberg Games to Model Strategic Dyad Behavior of Information Providers and Travelers: Theory and Numerical Simulations

Existing policy models of optimal guidance strategies are typically concerned with single-objective optimization based on reliable forecasts in terms of the consistency between predicted and observed aggregate activity-travel patterns. The interaction and interdependencies between policy objective and individuals have not received much attention. This paper considers how one specific activity schedule choice—namely, the start time of an activity chosen by individual travelers under guidance information—aggregates to form an equilibrium distribution, which in turn influences guidance generation and determines the best possible achievement of the policy objective. These choices are formalized as the outcomes of a Stackelberg game in which a travelers behavior model is integrated with prospect theory. The properties of the model are examined by using numerical computer simulations. The results of the simulations support the face validity of the formulated model.

Modeling Impact of Emerging Uncertain Time-Dependent Aggregate Activity-Travel Patterns on Individual Activity Participation and Timing Decisions

Existing activity-based models are typically concerned with predicting observed aggregate activity-travel patterns. The interaction and dependencies between individuals have received less attention. Considered here is how one specific schedule choice, namely, the start time of an activity chosen by an agent, aggregates to form an equilibrium distribution, which in turn influences individual decision making. These choices are formalized as the outcomes of a game of incomplete information in which agents have to conjecture the behavior of other agents. The properties of the model are examined by using numerical computer simulations. The results of the simulations support the face validity of the formulated model.