W.J.H. van Groenendaal

Can international commodity agreements work

Commodity agreements have been discussed for many years. However, only two agreements (for cocoa and rubber) have been concluded that do not rule out success in advance. Using an annual model of the cocoa market, the viability of the instruments agreed upon is analyzed, and ways and means to improve the functioning of commodity agreements are explored.

Identifying important factors in deterministic investment problems using design of experiments

For large investment projects, sensitivity analysis is an important tool to determine which factors need further analysis and/or can jeopardize the future of a project. In practice, reliable information on the joint probability distribution of factors affecting the investment is mostly lacking, so a stochastic analysis is not possible. The paper analyzes how and to what extent statistical design of experiments in combination with regression meta modeling can be helpful in finding important factors in deterministic models; information that is useful to decision makers.

Regression meetamodels and design of experiments

Simulation models are often used to support decision making for problems with uncertain inputs and parameters. Three types of models are used: deterministic, risk, and uncertainty models. Risk models are popular with researchers, but can be used only when the joint probability distribution of the inputs and parameters is known. In many real-life situations, however, this is not the case. Uncertainty models are too restrictive for real-life situations. Therefore deterministic models are then used. The sensitivity of the results is often analyzed by changing one factor at a time or by simulating a few scenarios. This paper, however, shows that in case of uncertainty it might be better to apply design of experiments (DOE) in combination with regression metamodels.

A HEURISTIC DECISION RULE FOR BUFFERSTOCK MANAGEMENT

Most commodity agreements formulated rule out succes in advance because of the ridgit formulation of the gaol. Only recently a different view on agreement formulation has emerged. One of the agreements which aim is to be flexible with respect to changing market conditions is the new cocoa agreement. Using an annual model of the cocoa market this article will explore a heuristic rule for market intervention and compare it with the instruments agreed upon.

A Heuristic Decision Rule for Bufferstock Management

Abstract Most commodity agreements formulated rule out succes in advance because of the ridgit formulation of the gaol. Only recently a different view on agreement formulation has emerged. One of the agreements which aim is to be flexible with respect to changing market conditions is the new cocoa agreement. Using an annual model of the cocoa market this article will explore a heuristic rule for market intervention. and compare it with the instruments agreed upon.