W. Matt Jolly

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earths vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.

On the need for a theory of wildland fire spread

We explore the basis of understanding wildland fire behaviour with the intention of stimulating curiosity and promoting fundamental investigations of fire spread problems that persist even in the presence of tremendous modelling advances. Internationally, many fire models have been developed based on a variety of assumptions and expressions for the fundamental heat transfer and combustion processes. The diversity of these assumptions raises the question as to whether the absence of a sound and coherent fire spread theory is partly responsible. We explore the thesis that, without a common understanding of what processes occur and how they occur, model reliability cannot be confirmed. A theory is defined as a collection of logically connected hypotheses that provide a coherent explanation of some aspect of reality. Models implement theory for a particular purpose, including hypotheses of phenomena and practical uses, such as prediction. We emphasise the need for theory and demonstrate the difference between theory and modelling. Increasingly sophisticated fire management requires modelling capabilities well beyond the fundamental basis of current models. These capabilities can only be met with fundamental fire behaviour research. Furthermore, possibilities as well as limitations for modelling may not be known or knowable without first having the theory.

Sensitivity of a surface fire spread model and associated fire behaviour fuel models to changes in live fuel moisture

Fire behaviour models are used to assess the potential characteristics of wildland fires such as rates of spread, fireline intensity and flame length. These calculations help support fire management strategies while keeping fireline personnel safe. Live fuel moisture is an important component of fire behaviour models but the sensitivity of existing models to live fuel moisture has not been thoroughly evaluated. The Rothermel surface fire spread model was used to estimate key surface fire behaviour values over a range of live fuel moistures for all 53 standard fuel models. Fire behaviour characteristics are shown to be highly sensitive to live fuel moisture but the response is fuel model dependent. In many cases, small changes in live fuel moisture elicit drastic changes in predicted fire behaviour. These large changes are a result of a combination of the model-calculated live fuel moisture of extinction, the effective wind speed limit and the dynamic load transfer function of some of the fuel models tested. Surface fire spread model sensitivity to live fuel moisture changes is discussed in the context of predicted fire fighter safety zone area because the area of a predicted safety zone may increase by an order of magnitude for a 10% decrease in live fuel moisture depending on the fuel model chosen.

De-coupling seasonal changes in water content and dry matter to predict live conifer foliar moisture content

Live foliar moisture content (LFMC) significantly influences wildland fire behaviour. However, characterising variations in LFMC is difficult because both foliar mass and dry mass can change throughout the season. Here we quantify the seasonal changes in both plant water status and dry matter partitioning. We collected new and old foliar samples from Pinus contorta for two growing seasons and quantified their LFMC, relative water content (RWC) and dry matter chemistry. LFMC quantifies the amount of water per unit fuel dry weight whereas RWC quantifies the amount of water in the fuel relative to how much water the fuel can hold at saturation. RWC is generally a better indicator of water stress than is LFMC. We separated water mass from dry mass for each sample and we attempted to best explain the seasonal variations in each using our measured physiochemical variables. We found that RWC explained 59% of variation in foliar water mass. Additionally, foliar starch, sugar and crude fat content explained 87% of the variation in seasonal dry mass changes. These two models combined explained 85% of the seasonal variations in LFMC. These results demonstrate that changes to dry matter exert a stronger control on seasonal LFMC dynamics than actual changes in water content, and they challenge the assumption that LFMC variations are strongly related to water stress. This methodology could be applied across a range of plant functional types to better understand the factors that drive seasonal changes in LFMC and live fuel flammability.

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI 50 ) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI 50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI 50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in shaping continental-scale pyrogeography.

Wildfire Potential Mapping over the State of Mississippi: A Land Surface Modeling Approach

A relationship between the likelihood of wildfires and various drought metrics (soil moisture-based fire potential indices) were examined over the southern part of Mississippi. The following three indices were tested and used to simulate spatial and temporal wildfire probability changes: (1) the accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P - E); (2) simulated moisture content of the top 10 cm of soil; and (3) the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). These indices were estimated from gridded meterological data and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). The relationships between normalized fire potential index deviations and the probability of at least one fire occurring during the following five consecutive days were evaluated using a 23-year (1986-2008) forest fire record for an evenly spaced grid (0.25° x 0.25°) across the state of Mississippis coastal plain. Two periods were selected and examined (January-mid June and mid September-December). There was good agreement between the observed and logistic model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire potential indices based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI had the largest impact on wildfire odds, increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire potential index during January-mid-June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid-September-December. These results suggest that soil moisture-based fire potential indices are good indicators of fire occurrence probability across this region.

Relationships between fire danger and the daily number and daily growth of active incidents burning in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Daily National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices are typically associated with the number and final size of newly discovered fires, or averaged over time and associated with the likelihood and total burned area of large fires. Herein we used a decade (2003–12) of NFDRS indices and US Forest Service (USFS) fire reports to examine daily relationships between fire danger and the number and growth rate of wildfires burning within a single predictive service area (PSA) in the Northern Rockies, USA. Results demonstrate that daily associations can be used to: (1) extend the utility of the NFDRS beyond the discovery date of new fires; (2) examine and justify the temporal window within which daily fire danger indices are averaged and related to total burned area; (3) quantify the probability of managing an active incident as a function of fire danger; and (4) quantify the magnitude and variability of daily fire growth as a function of fire danger. The methods herein can be extended to other areas with a daily history of weather and fire records, and can be used to better inform fire management decisions or to compare regional responses of daily fire activity to changes in fire danger.

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better inform fire management decisions if they were linked directly to observed fire behaviour. Here, we present a simple framework for relating fire danger indices to observed categorical wildland fire behaviour. Ordinal logistic regressions are used to model the probabilities of five distinct fire behaviour categories that are then combined with a safety-based weight function to calculate a Fire Behaviour Risk rating that can plotted over time and spatially mapped. We demonstrate its development and use across three adjacent US National Forests. Finally, we compare predicted fire behaviour risk ratings with observed variations in satellite-measured fire radiative power and we link these models with spatial fire danger maps to demonstrate the utility of this approach for landscape-scale fire behaviour risk assessment. This approach transforms fire weather conditions into simple and actionable fire behaviour risk metrics that wildland firefighters can use to support decisions that meet required objectives and keep people safe.

A comparison of two methods for estimating conifer live foliar moisture content

Foliar moisture content is an important factor regulating how wildland fires ignite in and spread through live fuels but moisture content determination methods are rarely standardised between studies. One such difference lies between the uses of rapid moisture analysers or drying ovens. Both of these methods are commonly used in live fuel research but they have never been systematically compared to ensure that they yield similar results. Here we compare the foliar moisture content of Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine) at multiple sites for an entire growing season determined using both oven-drying and rapid moisture analyser methods. We found that moisture contents derived from the rapid moisture analysers were nearly identical to oven-dried moisture contents (R2 = 0.99, n = 68) even though the rapid moisture analysers dried samples at 145°C v. oven-drying at 95°C. Mean absolute error between oven-drying and the rapid moisture analysers was low at 2.6% and bias was 0.62%. Mean absolute error was less than the within-sample variation of an individual moisture determination method and error was consistent across the range of moisture contents measured. These results suggest that live fuel moisture values derived from either of these two methods are interchangeable and it also suggests that drying temperatures used in live fuel moisture content determination may be less important than reported by other studies.

Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in U.S. wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014

One component of climate-fire interactions is the relationship between weather conditions concurrent with burning (i.e., fire danger) and the magnitude of fire activity. Here, daily environmental conditions are associated with daily observations of fire activity within ecoregions across the continental United States (CONUS) by aligning the latter 12 years of a 36 year gridded fire danger climatology with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire products. Results reveal that although modern relationships (2003 – 2014) vary regionally, fires across the majority of CONUS are more likely to be present and burning more vigorously as fire danger increases. Applying modern relationships to the entire climatology (1979 – 2014) indicates that in the absence of other influences, changes in fire danger have significantly increased the number of days per year that fires are burning across 42 - 49% of CONUS (by area) whilst also significantly increasing daily fire growth and daily heat release across 37 – 45% of CONUS. Increases in the fire activity season length coupled with an intensification of daily burning characteristics resulted in a CONUS-wide +0.02 Mhayr-1 trend in burned area, a 10.6 g m-2 yr-1 trend in the amount of fuel consumed per unit burned area, and ultimately a +0.51 Tgyr-1 trend in dry matter consumption. Overall the results demonstrate regional variations in the response of fires to changes in fire danger, and that weather conditions concurrent with burning have a three-pronged impact on the magnitude of fire activity by affecting the seasonal duration, spatial extent and combustion intensity.