W. Ray Kim

The model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD)

The Model for End‐stage Liver Disease (MELD) was initially created to predict survival in patients with complications of portal hypertension undergoing elective placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. The MELD which uses only objective variables was validated subsequently as an accurate predictor of survival among different populations of patients with advanced liver disease. The major use of the MELD score has been in allocation of organs for liver transplantation. However, the MELD score has also been shown to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis who have infections, variceal bleeding, as well as in patients with fulminant hepatic failure and alcoholic hepatitis. MELD may be used in selection of patients for surgery other than liver transplantation and in determining optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are not candidates for liver transplantation. Despite the many advantages of the MELD score, there are approximately 15%‐20% of patients whose survival cannot be accurately predicted by the MELD score. It is possible that the addition of variables that are better determinants of liver and renal function may improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Efforts at further refinement and validation of the MELD score will continue. (HEPATOLOGY 2007;45:797–805.)

Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list.

BACKGROUND Under the current liver-transplantation policy, donor organs are offered to patients with the highest risk of death. METHODS Using data derived from all adult candidates for primary liver transplantation who were registered with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network in 2005 and 2006, we developed and validated a multivariable survival model to predict mortality at 90 days after registration. The predictor variable was the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score with and without the addition of the serum sodium concentration. The MELD score (on a scale of 6 to 40, with higher values indicating more severe disease) is calculated on the basis of the serum bilirubin and creatinine concentrations and the international normalized ratio for the prothrombin time. RESULTS In 2005, there were 6769 registrants, including 1781 who underwent liver transplantation and 422 who died within 90 days after registration on the waiting list. Both the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration were significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio for death, 1.21 per MELD point and 1.05 per 1-unit decrease in the serum sodium concentration for values between 125 and 140 mmol per liter; P<0.001 for both variables). Furthermore, a significant interaction was found between the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration, indicating that the effect of the serum sodium concentration was greater in patients with a low MELD score. When applied to the data from 2006, when 477 patients died within 3 months after registration on the waiting list, the combination of the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration was considerably higher than the MELD score alone in 32 patients who died (7%). Thus, assignment of priority according to the MELD score combined with the serum sodium concentration might have resulted in transplantation and prevented death. CONCLUSIONS This population-wide study shows that the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration are important predictors of survival among candidates for liver transplantation.

Increased Prevalence and Mortality in Undiagnosed Celiac Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS The historical prevalence and long-term outcome of undiagnosed celiac disease (CD) are unknown. We investigated the long-term outcome of undiagnosed CD and whether the prevalence of undiagnosed CD has changed during the past 50 years. METHODS This study included 9133 healthy young adults at Warren Air Force Base (sera were collected between 1948 and 1954) and 12,768 gender-matched subjects from 2 recent cohorts from Olmsted County, Minnesota, with either similar years of birth (n = 5558) or age at sampling (n = 7210) to that of the Air Force cohort. Sera were tested for tissue transglutaminase and, if abnormal, for endomysial antibodies. Survival was measured during a follow-up period of 45 years in the Air Force cohort. The prevalence of undiagnosed CD between the Air Force cohort and recent cohorts was compared. RESULTS Of 9133 persons from the Air Force cohort, 14 (0.2%) had undiagnosed CD. In this cohort, during 45 years of follow-up, all-cause mortality was greater in persons with undiagnosed CD than among those who were seronegative (hazard ratio = 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-7.5; P < .001). Undiagnosed CD was found in 68 (0.9%) persons with similar age at sampling and 46 (0.8%) persons with similar years of birth. The rate of undiagnosed CD was 4.5-fold and 4-fold greater in the recent cohorts, respectively, than in the Air Force cohort (both P < or = .0001). CONCLUSIONS During 45 years of follow-up, undiagnosed CD was associated with a nearly 4-fold increased risk of death. The prevalence of undiagnosed CD seems to have increased dramatically in the United States during the past 50 years.

The burden of hepatitis C in the United States

According to the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 3.9 million of the U.S. civilian population have been infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), of whom 2.7 million (74%) have chronic infection. Hepatitis C virus infection is most common among non‐Caucasian men, ages 30 to 49 years. Moreover, the prevalence of antibody to hepatitis C virus in groups not represented in the NHANES sample, such as the homeless or incarcerated, may be as high as 40%. The age‐adjusted death rate for non‐A, non‐B viral hepatitis increased from 0.4 to 1.8 deaths per 100,000 persons per year between 1982 and 1999. In 1999, the first year hepatitis C was reported separately, there were 3,759 deaths attributed to HCV, although this is likely an underestimate. There was a 5‐fold increase in the annual number of patients with HCV who underwent liver transplantation between 1990 and 2000. Currently, more than one third of liver transplant candidates have HCV. Inpatient care of HCV‐related liver disease has also been increasing. In 1998, an estimated 140,000 discharges listed an HCV‐related diagnosis, accounting for 2% of discharges from non‐federal acute care hospitals in the United States. The total direct health care cost associated with HCV is estimated to have exceeded

MELD accurately predicts mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

1 billion in 1998. Future projections predict a 4‐fold increase between 1990 and 2015 in persons at risk of chronic liver disease (i.e., those with infection for 20 years or longer), suggesting a continued rise in the burden of HCV in the United States in the foreseeable future. (HEPATOLOGY 2002;36:S30‐S34).

Serum activity of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) as an indicator of health and disease

Assessing severity of disease in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is useful for predicting mortality, guiding treatment decisions, and stratifying patients for therapeutic trials. The traditional disease‐specific prognostic model used for this purpose is the Maddrey discriminant function (DF). The model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) is a more recently developed scoring system that has been validated as an independent predictor of patient survival in candidates for liver transplantation. The aim of the present study was to examine the ability of MELD to predict mortality in patients with AH. A retrospective cohort study of 73 patients diagnosed with AH between 1995 and 2001 was performed at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. MELD was the only independent predictor of mortality in patients with AH. MELD was comparable to DF in predicting 30‐day mortality (c‐statistic and 95% CI: 0.83 [0.71‐0.96] and 0.74 [0.62‐0.87] for MELD and DF, respectively, not significant) and 90‐day mortality (c‐statistic and 95% CI: 0.86 [0.77‐0.96] and 0.83 [0.74‐0.92] for MELD and DF, respectively, not significant). A MELD score of 21 had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 75% in predicting 90‐day mortality in AH. In conclusion, MELD is useful for predicting 30‐day and 90‐day mortality in patients with AH and maintains some practical and statistical advantages over DF in predicting mortality rate in these patients. MELD is a useful clinical tool for gauging mortality and guiding treatment decisions in patients with AH, particularly those complicated by ascites and/or encephalopathy. (HEPATOLOGY 2005;41:353–358.)

A Revised Natural History Model for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

This document presents the official position of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) on the application of serum alanine aminotransferase (AL T) activity, based upon an analysis of the currently available scientific data. Its authorship was selected by the Public Policy Committee. The document is fully endorsed by the AASLD Governing Board.

Association between noninvasive fibrosis markers and mortality among adults with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the United States

OBJECTIVE To describe a natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) that is based on routine clinical findings and test results and eliminates the need for liver biopsy. PATIENTS AND METHODS Using the Cox proportional hazards analysis, we created a survival model based on 405 patients with PSC from 5 clinical centers. Independent validation of the model was undertaken by applying it to 124 patients who were not included in the model creation. RESULTS Based on the multivariate analysis of 405 patients, a risk score was defined by the following formula: R = 0.03 (age [y]) + 0.54 loge (bilirubin [mg/dL]) + 0.54 loge (aspartate aminotransferase [U/L]) + 1.24 (variceal bleeding [0/1]) - 0.84 (albumin [g/dL]). The risk score was used to obtain survival estimates up to 4 years of follow-up. Application of this model to an independent group of 124 patients showed good correlation between estimated and actual survival. CONCLUSIONS A new model to estimate patient survival in PSC includes more reproducible variables (age, bilirubin, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and history of variceal bleeding), has accuracy comparable to previous models, and obviates the need for a liver biopsy.

Efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiation, followed by liver transplantation, for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma at 12 US centers.

The clinical and public health significance of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well established. We investigated the long‐term effect of NAFLD on mortality. This analysis utilized the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 1988‐1994 and subsequent follow‐up data for mortality through December 31, 2006. NAFLD was defined by ultrasonographic detection of hepatic steatosis in the absence of other known liver diseases. The presence and severity of hepatic fibrosis in subjects with NAFLD was determined by the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and FIB‐4 score. Of 11,154 participants, 34.0% had NAFLD—the majority (71.7%) had NFS consistent with lack of significant fibrosis (NFS <−1.455), whereas 3.2% had a score indicative of advanced fibrosis (NFS >0.676). After a median follow‐up of 14.5 years, NAFLD was not associated with higher mortality (age‐ and sex‐adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93‐1.19). In contrast, there was a progressive increase in mortality with advancing fibrosis scores. Compared to subjects without fibrosis, those with a high probability of advanced fibrosis had a 69% increase in mortality (for NFS: HR, 1.69, 95% CI: 1.09‐2.63; for APRI: HR, 1.85, 95% CI: 1.02‐3.37; for FIB‐4: HR, 1.66, 95% CI: 0.98‐2.82) after adjustment for other known predictors of mortality. These increases in mortality were almost entirely from cardiovascular causes (for NFS: HR, 3.46, 95% CI: 1.91‐6.25; for APRI: HR, 2.53, 95% CI: 1.33‐4.83; for FIB‐4: HR, 2.68, 95% CI: 1.44‐4.99). Conclusions: Ultrasonography‐diagnosed NAFLD is not associated with increased mortality. However, advanced fibrosis, as determined by noninvasive fibrosis marker panels, is a significant predictor of mortality, mainly from cardiovascular causes, independent of other known factors. (HEPATOLOGY 2013)

MELD score as a predictor of pretransplant and posttransplant survival in OPTN/UNOS status 1 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS Excellent single-center outcomes of neoadjuvant chemoradiation and liver transplantation for unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma caused the United Network of Organ Sharing to offer a standardized model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) exception for this disease. We analyzed data from multiple centers to determine the effectiveness of this treatment and the appropriateness of the MELD exception. METHODS We collected and analyzed data from 12 large-volume transplant centers in the United States. These centers met the inclusion criteria of treating 3 or more patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma using neoadjuvant therapy, followed by liver transplantation, from 1993 to 2010 (n = 287 total patients). Center-specific protocols and medical charts were reviewed on-site. RESULTS The patients completed external radiation (99%), brachytherapy (75%), radiosensitizing therapy (98%), and/or maintenance chemotherapy (65%). Seventy-one patients dropped out before liver transplantation (rate, 11.5% in 3 months). Intent-to-treat survival rates were 68% and 53%, 2 and 5 years after therapy, respectively; post-transplant, recurrence-free survival rates were 78% and 65%, respectively. Patients outside the United Network of Organ Sharing criteria (those with tumor mass >3 cm, transperitoneal tumor biopsy, or metastatic disease) or with a prior malignancy had significantly shorter survival times (P < .001). There were no differences in outcomes among patients based on differences in surgical staging or brachytherapy. Although most patients came from 1 center (n = 193), the other 11 centers had similar survival times after therapy. CONCLUSIONS Patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma who were treated with neoadjuvant therapy followed up by liver transplantation at 12 US centers had a 65% rate of recurrence-free survival after 5 years, showing this therapy to be highly effective. An 11.5% drop-out rate after 3.5 months of therapy indicates the appropriateness of the MELD exception. Rigorous selection is important for the continued success of this treatment.