W. Robert Reed

A study of quasi-experimental control group methods for estimating policy impacts

Abstract This study examines the efficacy of quasi-experimental control group (QECG) methods for estimating policy impacts. It establishes that QECG estimators can outperform the conventional regression (CR) estimator when policy adoption is endogenous (nonrandom), the relationship between outcomes and policies is nonlinear, and CR equations do not correctly specify the nonlinear form of the relationship. In the case of perfect matching, QECG methods produce unbiased estimates. In the case of imperfect matching, QECG estimators will be biased. To address this and other issues, we develop a more general QECG estimator that (1) allows control places to be matched to more than one treatment place, and (2) weights observations by the “closeness” of the match. Using Monte Carlo analysis we demonstrate that our estimator substantially improves estimates of policy impacts.

Endogenizing the Median Voter: Public Choice Goes to School

This paper investigates implications of the relationship between voter self-selection and the behavior of politicians. Voter self-selection arises in elections because only a portion of eligible voters actually vote. It is likely to be more pronounced whenever the implied net benefits from a given electoral choice are disproportionately distributed across voters. Public choice theory predicts that incumbent officials will manipulate this self-election pursuant to the maximization of their personal objective functions. This paper provides evidence from school bond elections that politicians influence voter self-selection via manipulation of election parameters.

The relationship between congressional spending and tenure with an application to term limits

Whether term limits would increase or decrease federal spending depends on the reason for the causal relationship between tenure and spending. We investigate this subject by empirically studying congressional spending and tenure for all United States House and Senate members who entered Congress between the 94th and 102nd Congresses (1975–1992). As our measure of congressional spending we use the National Taxpayers Unions Congressional Spending Scores. Our study finds that a statistically significant relationship exists between congressional spending and tenure for some groups of congressmen. We then test three hypotheses relating tenure and spending. No single hypothesis is consistent with all of our empirical results. Nevertheless, the small sizes of the empirical effects estimated in this study suggest that term limits would have an inconsequential impact on the level of federal spending – at least via the “moral hazard” mechanisms described in this paper.

Do women prefer women's work?

A new methodology is implemented to determine whether job characteristics can explain why women are concentrated in low-paying, female-dominated occupations. Extensive information on jobs and labour market histories are collected from the 1982 National Longitudinal Survey, Youth Cohort, for women and men characterized by substantial labour market attachment. Significant differences in nonpecuniary job characteristics between the male and female samples are found to exist. Nevertheless, we find no evidence that women differentially favour those job characteristics commonly associated with ‘womens work’.

Tax Cuts and Employment in New Jersey: Lessons From a Regional Analysis

The Whitman administration’s 30% reduction in New Jersey’s personal income taxes from 1994 to 1996 is prominently cited as a role model for state fiscal policy. The authors investigate whether the growth benefits attributed to the Whitman tax cuts are warranted. Panel data methods are applied to annual observations of county-level employment growth fromNew Jersey and the surrounding economic region. This study’s analysis does not support the hypothesis that tax cuts stimulated employment growth in New Jersey. Although New Jersey did experience substantial employment growth subsequent to the tax cuts, most of this growth was shared by the nearby Economic Areas.

A Comparison of Prospective and Retrospective Voting with Heterogeneous Politicians

A long-standing empirical literature has been concerned with determining whether voters vote “prospectively or “retrospectively.” Despite this interest, little is known about the consequences of one voting regime versus another. This study addresses this deficiency. We find that voter welfare can be greatly affected by the candidate selection technique employed by voters. Among other findings, we show that “electing the best candidate” does not always maximize voter welfare. Furthermore, “myopic” voting is sometimes superior to “farsighted” voting. These findings have implications for interpretations of empirical studies of voter behavior.