Walid Ammar

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016

The last 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs may reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.Summary Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2–73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5–20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00–8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006–16—age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176–181) increase in deaths in ages 90–94 years and a 210% (208–212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Use of health systems evidence by policymakers in eastern mediterranean countries: views, practices, and contextual influences

BackgroundHealth systems evidence can enhance policymaking and strengthen national health systems. In the Middle East, limited research exists on the use of evidence in the policymaking process. This multi-country study explored policymakers’ views and practices regarding the use of health systems evidence in health policymaking in 10 eastern Mediterranean countries, including factors that influence health policymaking and barriers and facilitators to the use of evidence.MethodsThis study utilized a survey adapted and customized from a similar tool developed in Canada. Health policymakers from 10 countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen) were surveyed. Descriptive and bi-variate analyses were performed for quantitative questions and thematic analysis was done for qualitative questions.ResultsA total of 237 policymakers completed the survey (56.3% response rate). Governing parties, limited funding for the health sector and donor organizations exerted a strong influence on policymaking processes. Most (88.5%) policymakers reported requesting evidence and 43.1% reported collaborating with researchers. Overall, 40.1% reported that research evidence is not delivered at the right time. Lack of an explicit budget for evidence-informed health policymaking (55.3%), lack of an administrative structure for supporting evidence-informed health policymaking processes (52.6%), and limited value given to research (35.9%) all limited the use of research evidence. Barriers to the use of evidence included lack of research targeting health policy, lack of funding and investments, and political forces. Facilitators included availability of health research and research institutions, qualified researchers, research funding, and easy access to information.ConclusionsHealth policymakers in several countries recognize the importance of using health systems evidence. Study findings are important in light of changes unfolding in some Arab countries and can help undertake an analysis of underlying transformations and their respective health policy implications including the way evidence will be used in policy decisions.

Mixed model performance contracting and casemix in limited settings – the case of Lebanon

Background Lebanon is an upper-middle income country with 4.5 million inhabitants (as well as more than 1.2 million refugees) and total health expenditures at 7.3% of the Gross Domestic Product. Lebanon has a mixed public and private healthcare sector. The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) functions as ‘insurer of last resort’ for approximately 54% of the population that would otherwise lack hospitalization coverage. The MoPH contracts 26 public and 105 private hospitals and covers about 240,000 hospital admissions annually. Since 2001, hospital contracting is based on a link between reimbursement rate and accreditation. Accreditation has encouraged the development of a healthcare quality culture among providers, and has likely contributed to total quality management. Yet, the sole link between accreditation and reimbursement has imposed limitations that are apparent to both MoPH and the hospitals. To address this problem, since 2009, a MoPH cross-collaboration team (with membership that includes implementers, policymakers, and researchers) has worked to develop a system to capture additional dimensions of healthcare performance.

Health system resilience: Lebanon and the Syrian refugee crisis.

Background Between 2011 and 2013, the Lebanese population increased by 30% due to the influx of Syrian refugees. While a sudden increase of such magnitude represents a shock to the health system, threatening the continuity of service delivery and destabilizing governance, it also offers a unique opportunity to study resilience of a health system amidst ongoing crisis. Methods We conceptualized resilience as the capacity of a health system to absorb internal or external shocks (for example prevent or contain disease outbreaks and maintain functional health institutions) while sustaining achievements. We explored factors contributing to the resilience of the Lebanese health system, including networking with stakeholders, diversification of the health system, adequate infrastructure and health human resources, a comprehensive communicable disease response and the integration of the refugees within the health system. Results In studying the case of Lebanon we used input–process–output–outcome approach to assess the resilience of the Lebanese health system. This approach provided us with a holistic view of the health system, as it captured not only the sustained and improved outcomes, but also the inputs and processes leading to them. Conclusion Our study indicates that the Lebanese health system was resilient as its institutions sustained their performance during the crisis and even improved.

Hospital accreditation, reimbursement and case mix: links and insights for contractual systems.

BackgroundResource consumption is a widely used proxy for severity of illness, and is often measured through a case-mix index (CMI) based on Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), which is commonly linked to payment. For countries that do not have DRGs it has been suggested to use CMIs derived from International Classification of Diseases (ICD). Our research objective was to use ICD-derived case-mix to evaluate whether or not the current accreditation-based hospital reimbursement system in Lebanon is appropriate.MethodsOur study population included medical admissions to 122 hospitals contracted with the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) between June 2011 and May 2012. Applying ICD-derived CMI on principal diagnosis cost (CMI-ICDC) using weighing similar to that used in Medicare DRG CMI, analyses were made by hospital accreditation, ownership and size. We examined two measures of 30-day re-admission rate. Further analysis was done to examine correlation between principal diagnosis CMI and surgical procedure cost CMI (CMI-CPTC), and three proxy measures on surgical complexity, case complexity and surgical proportion.ResultsHospitals belonging to the highest accreditation category had a higher CMI than others, but no difference was found in CMI among the three other categories. Private hospitals had a higher CMI than public hospitals, and those more than 100 beds had a higher CMI than smaller hospitals. Re-admissions rates were higher in accreditation category C hospitals than category D hospitals. CMI-ICDC was fairly correlated with CMI-CPTC, and somehow correlated with the proposed proxies.ConclusionsOur results indicate that the current link between accreditation and reimbursement rate is not appropriate, and leads to unfairness and inefficiency in the system. Some proxy measures are correlated with case-mix but are not good substitutes for it. Policy implications of our findings propose the necessity for changing the current reimbursement system by including case mix and outcome indicators in addition to accreditation in hospital contracting. Proxies developed may be used to detect miss-use and provider adverse behavior. Research using ICD-derived case mix is limited and our findings may be useful to inform similar initiatives and other limited-setting countries in the region.

Screening for Cardiovascular Risk in Asymptomatic Users of the Primary Health Care Network in Lebanon, 2012–2013

Introduction In 2012, the Ministry of Public Health in Lebanon piloted a service of multifactorial cardiovascular screening in the publicly subsidized Primary Health Care (PHC) Network. We present an epidemiological analysis of data produced during this pilot to justify the inclusion of this service in the package of essential services offered through PHC and to present a preliminary cardiovascular risk profile in an asymptomatic population. Methods A total of 4,205 participants (two-thirds of which were women) aged at least 40 years and reportedly free from diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) were screened. The screening protocol used a questionnaire and direct measurements to assess 5 modifiable cardiovascular risk factors; total cardiovascular risk score was calculated according to a paper-based algorithm developed by the World Health Organization and the International Society of Hypertension. Results Approximately 25% of the sample displayed metabolic impairments (11% for impaired blood glucose metabolism and 17% for impaired systolic blood pressure), and 6.6% were classified at total cardiovascular risk of 10% or more. Just over one-quarter of the sample was obese, almost half had a substantially elevated waist circumference, and 41% were smokers. Men were significantly more likely to screen positive for metabolic impairment than women, and women were more likely to be obese. Conclusion The implementation of a multifactorial screening for CVD among asymptomatic subjects detected a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed cases of high metabolic risk, people who could now be referred to optimal medical follow-up.

Syrian crisis and mental health system reform in Lebanon

Libri V, Yandim C, Athanasopoulos S, et al. Epigenetic and neurological eff ects and safety of high-dose nicotinamide in patients with Friedreich’s ataxia: an exploratory, open-label, dose-escalation study. Lancet 2014; 384: 504–13—This Article should have been published under a Creative Commons CC BY open-access licence. The correction has been made to the online version as of May 8, 2014, and to the printed Article.

Improving primary healthcare through accreditation: baseline assessment of readiness and challenges in lebanese context

The quality of primary healthcare (PHC) has become of high importance. In 2009, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health launched the PHC accreditation program to expand and improve quality across the continuum of care. This study will explore the readiness of PHC centers in Lebanon to implement the newly developed accreditation standards including challenges and required actions/strategies. Seventy-two centers were sampled, and respondents were asked to complete a 65-item questionnaire adapted from the national PHC accreditation standards and two open-ended questions. Descriptive analysis was conducted to assess responses to each item. Thematic analysis was used to analyze open-ended questions. Scale scores were considerably low, particularly for areas that relate to quality of service delivery. Most respondents (59.8%) indicated not having a strategic plan on the basis of community needs. Close to 70% of respondents indicated that they do not monitor and investigate trends in rates of sentinel events, near misses, and adverse events. Moreover, 76.2% indicated not having a system for incident and accident-reporting, and only 22.3% reported using one. The PHC accreditation in Lebanon can potentially reform this essential health system component. Results provide insights for policymakers and managers to consider in their efforts to improve quality and performance of PHC centers in Lebanon.

Geographic epidemiology in a small area: cancer incidence in Baakline, Lebanon, 2000-2008.

Aggregate data of the National Clr cac gi s in Lebanon cannot discriminate cance r incidence i n small areas. Trained community members surveyed the permanent population of the Baakline municipality using the verbal autopsy approach. We surveyed 1042 households with at least 1 member living permanently in Baakline during 2000-2008. Data covered 4330 persons yielding 34,143 years of observation and 56 new cases of cancer were reported. Median age at diagnosis varied significantly between men (77 years) and women (56 years). The most common types were lung cancer (20%) followed by colorectal (12.5%) and breast (9%). Estimated crude cancer incidence rate was 164 cases/100,000 persons/year, significantly higher in men (194) than women (130), and much lower overall than the national figure (218). The permanent Baakline population is older than that of Lebanon itself, yet the cancer incidence rate is markedly lower than the national figure. This finding pleads for serious efforts to preserve the low environmental contamination and the healthy lifestyles in food and tobacco abstinence that have protected the population so far.