Walter Forrest

Life-course transitions, self-control and desistance from crime.

In recent years a number of studies have observed empirical associations between the occurrence of key life events such as marriage, employment, and military service, and desistance from crime. The relationships between these life-course transitions and changes in criminal behaviour have been cited as evidence in support of social control and social learning theories of delinquency and in contradiction to alternative theoretical perspectives that downplay the significance of life events in the development of criminal behaviour over the lifespan. In this paper we develop and test an alternative explanation for the apparent impact of marriage on criminal and delinquent behaviour. We argue that transitions such as marriage might also promote desistance, in part, by enabling offenders to develop and exercise increased self-control. We then test this hypothesis using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and explore the implications of our findings for the study of desistance and for self-control theory.

Stability and Change in Risk Seeking: Investigating the Effects of an Intervention Program

Although much is known about the consequences of low self-control, little is known about how it develops during adolescence and what types of experiences trigger important changes. This study considers this by examining a key component of low self-control—risk-seeking propensity—to determine its stability and change during early adolescence, its effects on changes in delinquency, and its responsiveness to a comprehensive delinquency-reduction program. These issues were examined with data from the Children at Risk (CAR) program, a randomly assigned intervention that targeted early adolescents. The analysis revealed substantial stability in risk seeking, but there was evidence of change as well, and these changes were associated with contemporaneous changes in delinquency. Risk-seeking changes were not, however, a result of participation in the CAR program, despite that program’s success at reducing some forms of delinquency. The theoretical and policy implications of these findings are addressed.

Racism, Gun Ownership and Gun Control: Biased Attitudes in US Whites May Influence Policy Decisions

Objective Racism is related to policies preferences and behaviors that adversely affect blacks and appear related to a fear of blacks (e.g., increased policing, death penalty). This study examined whether racism is also related to gun ownership and opposition to gun controls in US whites. Method The most recent data from the American National Election Study, a large representative US sample, was used to test relationships between racism, gun ownership, and opposition to gun control in US whites. Explanatory variables known to be related to gun ownership and gun control opposition (i.e., age, gender, education, income, conservatism, anti-government sentiment, southern vs. other states, political identification) were entered in logistic regression models, along with measures of racism, and the stereotype of blacks as violent. Outcome variables included; having a gun in the home, opposition to bans on handguns in the home, support for permits to carry concealed handguns. Results After accounting for all explanatory variables, logistic regressions found that for each 1 point increase in symbolic racism there was a 50% increase in the odds of having a gun at home. After also accounting for having a gun in the home, there was still a 28% increase in support for permits to carry concealed handguns, for each one point increase in symbolic racism. The relationship between symbolic racism and opposition to banning handguns in the home (OR1.27 CI 1.03,1.58) was reduced to non-significant after accounting for having a gun in the home (OR1.17 CI.94,1.46), which likely represents self-interest in retaining property (guns). Conclusions Symbolic racism was related to having a gun in the home and opposition to gun control policies in US whites. The findings help explain US whites’ paradoxical attitudes towards gun ownership and gun control. Such attitudes may adversely influence US gun control policy debates and decisions.

Committee Assignments in a Nascent Party System: The Case of the Turkish Grand National Assembly

In the USA, scholars have developed theories to explain the role of legislative committees, but these theories have not been widely tested outside the USA. This ambivalence results from the perception that the strength of political parties in parliamentary systems undermines the importance of other legislative institutions, including the committees. We surveyed members of the Turkish parliament during a period of considerable party-system turmoil to test the applicability of the prominent theories of committee organization (the distributive, informational, and partisan theories) to a parliamentary system. We found strong support for the distributive and partial support for the informational specialization and partisan theories. We consider the implications of these results for our understanding of the role of committees in parliamentary democracies and the study of parliamentary politics.

Individual differences in the concordance of self-reports and official records

BACKGROUND Although self-reported and official measures of criminal behaviour are highly correlated, the concordance between self-reports and official records appears to vary across the population. Few studies, however, have considered the range of individual traits and characteristics that might influence the relative accuracy of self-reports and official records. METHOD Using data collected from the Australian Temperament Project, we investigated the concordance between official records and self-reports together with some of the factors that might influence it. RESULTS Those with criminal records were 3.5 times more likely to report police contact than those with no criminal record. However, there were significant sources of individual-level variation in their convergence, and notably honest respondents were less likely to report an interaction with police. Those at risk of crime and delinquency were less likely to consent to official records searches. CONCLUSIONS Many individual characteristics that predisposed individuals towards a criminal career also affected their willingness to consent to official records searches and the concordance between criminal records and self-reports.

The intergenerational consequences of war: anxiety, depression, suicidality, and mental health among the children of war veterans

Background The long-term effects of military deployment on the mental health of war veterans have been investigated extensively, but few studies have examined the long-term impact of parental deployment on childrens mental health. Methods Using a retrospective, multigenerational survey and propensity score analysis to adjust for selection effects and endogeneity bias, we investigated the impact of parental deployment on the mental health of the adult children of Australian veterans of the Vietnam War. We analysed data from 1966 adult men (35%) and women (65%) whose fathers (N = 1418) were selected at random from the population of surviving men who served in the Australian army during the Vietnam War (1962-75). Mean age of respondents was 37. The main outcome measures were self-reported diagnosis or treatment for anxiety and depression (i.e. lifetime and previous 12 months), suicidality based on Psychiatric Symptom Frequency Scale, and current mental health as measured by the Mental Health Inventory of the SF-36. The key independent variable was whether their fathers were deployed to the Vietnam War. Results Almost 40 years after the war, the adult children of deployed veterans were more likely to have been diagnosed with anxiety [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54, confidence interval (CI) = 1.04, 2.28] and depression (OR = 1.77, CI = 1.03, 3.05), to have had thoughts of suicide and self-harm (OR = 2.39, CI = 1.57, 3.65) and to have made suicidal plans (OR = 3.52, CI = 1.40, 8.85) than the offspring of comparable, non-deployed army veterans. They also reported poorer current mental health (Coefficient = -5.08, CI = -6.60 - -3.56). Conclusions The results imply that there are significant and enduring adverse effects of parental deployment on the mental health of children in military families, and provide some insight into the potential long-term impacts of recent military engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Alcohol consumption, masculinity, and alcohol-related violence and anti-social behaviour in sportspeople

OBJECTIVES There is no research examining alcohol-related aggression and anti-social behaviour in UK or European sportspeople (athletes), and no research has examined relationships between masculinity, alcohol consumption, and alcohol-related aggression and antisocial behaviour in sportspeople (athletes). This study addresses this gap. DESIGN Cross-sectional. METHODS A sample (N=2048; women=892, 44%) of in season sportspeople enrolled at UK universities (response 83%), completed measures of masculinity, alcohol consumption, within-sport (on-field) violence, and having been the perpetrator and/or victim of alcohol-related violent/aggressive and antisocial behaviour (e.g., hit/assaulted, vandalism, sexual assault). Logistic regressions examined predictors of alcohol-related violence/aggression and anti-social behaviours. RESULTS Significant bivariate relationships between masculinity, within-sport violence, alcohol consumption, and alcohol-related aggression and anti-social behaviour were found for both men and women (ps<.001). Logistic regression adjusting for all variables showed that higher levels of masculinity and alcohol consumption in men and women were related to an increased odds of having conducted an aggressive, violent and/or anti-social act in the past 12 months when intoxicated. Odds ratios were largest for relationships between masculinity, alcohol consumption, within-sport violence, and interpersonal violence/aggression (ps<.001). A similar pattern of results was found for having been the victim of aggression and anti-social behaviour. CONCLUSIONS Alcohol-related aggression and anti-social behaviour appear to be problematic in UK university sportspeople, and is related to masculinity and excessive drinking. Interventions that reduce excessive alcohol consumption, masculine norms and associated within-sport violence, could be effective in reducing alcohol-related aggression and antisocial behaviour in UK sportspeople.

Political boundary versus social context: Dynamics of socioeconomic differentials in fertility in indian states

Using data from Indias first (1992-93) and third (2005-06) National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-I and NFHS-III) this study examined the fertility differentials between major social groups and the extent to which these varied between states and over time. The analysis was based on a sample of 54,030 and 55,369 currently married women aged 15-34 in the NFHS-I and NFHS-III respectively. Reported parity and desired family size were used to assess variations in fertility behaviour. The results show that interstate variation in childbearing patterns within social groups was at least as high as, if not higher than, variation between states (net of other influences) in both periods, 1992-93 and 2005-06. The variations among Hindus, the poor and Muslims were more noticeable than for other groups. These variations did not decline between 1992-93 and 2005-06 and may have even increased slightly for some groups. Further, there was no consistent north-south divide in either fertility behaviour or desired family size. Together, these results may point to the gradual disappearance of the influences that were once unique to southern or northern India, and the simultaneous emergence of social, political, economic and cultural forces that are pan-Indian in their reach.

The intergenerational transmission of Australian Indigenous languages: why language maintenance programmes should be family-focused

ABSTRACT By 2050, the majority of Australia’s surviving Indigenous languages are likely to become extinct. The intergenerational transmission of languages in which children acquire languages from their parents and grandparents is a key mechanism for reversing language shift, but many Australian children whose parents speak an Indigenous language do not speak that language. Using a unique, national survey of Australian Indigenous children, I identify factors associated with the successful intergenerational transmission of Indigenous languages within Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families. Results highlight the importance of parents’ language use. Although community-level characteristics account for some of the variance in successful language transmission, parents who use Indigenous languages at home, speak them as well as they speak English, and do not also speak a creole language are more likely to pass those languages onto their children.

Intimate partner violence and contraceptive use in India:: The moderating influence of conflicting fertility preferences and contraceptive intentions

Several studies report that women exposed to intimate partner violence (IPV) are less likely to use contraception, but the evidence that violence consistently constrains contraceptive use is inconclusive. One plausible explanation for this ambiguity is that the effects of violence on contraceptive use depend on whether couples are likely to have conflicting attitudes to it. In particular, although some men may engage in violence to prevent their partners from using contraception, they are only likely to do so if they have reason to oppose its use. Using a longitudinal follow-up to the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2), conducted among a sample of rural, married women of childbearing age, this study investigated whether the relationship between IPV and contraceptive use is contingent on whether womens contraceptive intentions contradict mens fertility preferences. Results indicate that women experiencing IPV are less likely to undergo sterilization, but only if they intended to use contraception and their partners wanted more children (Average Marginal Effect (AME)=-0.06; CI=-0.10, -0.01). Violence had no effect on sterilization among women who did not plan to use contraception (AME=-0.02; CI=-0.06, 0.03) or whose spouses did not want more children (AME=-0.01; CI=-0.9, 0.06). These results imply that violence enables some men to resolve disagreements over the use of contraception by imposing their fertility preferences on their partners. They also indicate that unmet need for contraception could be an intended consequence of violence.