Walter Isard

Arms Race Models: A Survey and Synthesis

In recent years there has been a significant proliferation of arms race models.’ Numerous factors have been put forth as relevant, and diverse analytical and explanatory approaches have been employed. We thus feel that the time is ripe for a survey designed to synthesize in a systematic way the significant factors covered in arms race models, and in a way that permits operational linkage to world system models. We start in the next section with a presentation of the classic Richardson model and some key extensions of it. In Section 3 we consider in more detail the play of scarce resources, the ties to the domestic economy, and the possibility of a disequilibrium and partial adjustment process in the realization of a desired stock of weaponry. Section 4 introduces utility optimization behavior for a nation. It is first examined in terms of a static tradeoff between civilian goods and security based on both a deterrence and an attack capability with the rival’s weapons stock taken as given. Next, an optimal time path of resources to be allocated to the military is considered when (1) the rival’s time path in weaponry stocks is given and (2) the rival’s time path of resources allocated to the military is strategically managed, which then poses a differential game problem. Strategy is more closely examined in Section 5 . Deterrence and attack capabilities are more precisely defined, zones of mutual deterrence and of attack initiation are established, numbers of casualties, decision rules, and a hypothetical missile war and its payoff are. introduced.

History of Regional Science and the Regional Science Association International

1 The Setting and Initial Events.- 2 The Emergence and Struggling Years of Regional Science.- 2.1 Early Developments and Significant Recognition of Location Theory.- 2.2 Growth of Interest in Regional Problems, Informal Meetings of Regional Researchers and Promotion Efforts.- 2.3 Era of Conceptual Thinking and Model Development with Multidisciplinary Explorations.- 3 The Evolution of the Designations: Regional Science, Regional Science Association and the Field of Regional Science.- 4 The Formation of the Regional Science Association.- 5 The Rooting and Emergence of Regional Science as a Major Field of Study.- 6 The Invasion of and Extensive Expansion in Europe Concomitant with the Formation of Sections.- 7 The Spread of Regional Science into Japan, India, andLatin America.- 8 My Current Thinking on the Scope and Nature of Regional Science and Opportunities for Its Advance in Basic Research and Policy Analyses.- Appendix A: Memorandum on a Census Monograph on the Location of Economic Activity and Its Relation to Population.- Appendix B: Request for Support of a Project in the Field of Regional Economic Studies.- Appendix C: Regionalism and American Economic History. Lee Benson (12/9/51).- Appendix D: Conference of the Regional Science Association 4-7 September 1961, Institute of Social Studies, Molenstraat 27, The Hague, Netherlands.- Appendix E: Annual Programs in the United States, 1958-1967 (EXCEPT 1963).- Appendix F: Regional Science Association Council Members.- Reference.

Permit allocation in emissions trading using the Boltzmann distribution

In emissions trading, the initial allocation of permits is an intractable issue because it needs to be essentially fair to the participating countries. There are many ways to distribute a given total amount of emissions permits among countries, but the existing distribution methods, such as auctioning and grandfathering, have been debated. In this paper we describe a new method for allocating permits in emissions trading using the Boltzmann distribution. We introduce the Boltzmann distribution to permit allocation by combining it with concepts in emissions trading. We then demonstrate through empirical data analysis how emissions permits can be allocated in practice among participating countries. The new allocation method using the Boltzmann distribution describes the most probable, natural, and unbiased distribution of emissions permits among multiple countries. Simple and versatile, this new method holds potential for many economic and environmental applications.

Reflections on the relevance of integrated multiregion models: Lessons from Physics

Abstract This article examines the set of conceptual, theoretical, methodological and empirical developments in physics, wherein tremendous advances have been recently made. The validity of a pluralistic attack is demonstrated. For regional science this strongly suggests that scholars should pursue, sometimes simultaneously, sometimes sequentially, solid empirically-oriented studies, theories involving grand intuitive leaps, deterministic and non-deterministic models, micro- and macro-analyses, partial and general theories, dynamic and static models, and equilibrium and disequilibrium analyses. We should never hesitate to engage in integrated multiregion models or studies that can more effectively attack policy questions, even though we must combine approaches with some underlying inconsistencies.

Chapter 1 – A SURVEY OF THE PEACE ECONOMICS LITERATURE

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the compact survey of the main elements of thought in the literature on peace economics. The literature on peace economics is disorganized, appearing in diverse journals and books without adhering to any semblance of organization. To understand the operation of the world economy and most national economies, peaceful production and exchange ways of generating income and utility need to be complemented by appropriative-type ways and efforts. These efforts, associated with military expenditures, weaponry accumulation, and conflict that can lead to physical violence, are designed to secure resources of others or to defend against loss of resources to others. An explicit treatment of security as a variable addresses Hirshleifers defense against invasion or appropriation by another nation (behaving unit) of ones resources. It less adequately addresses Hirshleifers appropriative efforts to acquire resources, as acquisition and accumulation of power and other noneconomic commodities tend to loom much larger in governing such efforts. General conceptual frameworks need to be simplified and modified through the injection of assumptions, sometimes very strong, to yield magnitudes and directions of change of variables useful for projecting behavior, attacking problems, and identifying appropriate policies.

Survey of the Peace Economics Literature: Recent Key Contributions and a Comprehensive Coverage Up to 1992 (Part II)

In this part we wish to present a short, but compact survey of the main strands of thought in the literature on peace economics up to 1992. A more detailed and thorough survey requires a book-length manuscript currently being written. There are many ways in which this survey can be organized. One way would address first the question of why there is conflict, proceed to the identification of specific economic factors generating or lying behind conflicts, hone into the consequent phenomena of military expenditures and arms races, perhaps then investigate the interplay of economic factors in specific conflicts (including those leading to major unrest, wars, revolutions and terrorism), examine the basis for arms control, and finally at all stages probe into the manifold direct and indirect effects (the impact) of arms escalation, control and disarmament. To proceed in this way, however, is not very useful. The literature on peace economics is helter skelter, appearing in diverse journals and books without adhering to any semblance of organization. Hence we choose to present first some general conceptual materials to help identify the myriad of forces and problems that have been encountered. Then we proceed to survey the literature, for the most part on operational models and hypothesis testing, following the four approaches suggested by economic reasoning that Arrow (chapter 2) uses in treating the economic effects of arms reduction. These are: standard resource allocation theory, macroeconomic stability analysis, modern growth theory, and political economy thinking. We find examination of the literature in this manner at least as good if not better than any other that has been proposed. However, we discuss writings on arms race models and arms control which are the outgrowth of the standard resource allocation problem in a separate section. Also since there are extensive writings on sectoral and regional impacts of military expenditures which employ models derived from both standard resource allocation theory and macroeconomic stability analysis, we add a section on these impacts after the discussion of macroeconomic stability analysis. Finally, we end up with a section on conflict management analysis and procedures, a topic of concern to all social sciences and many professions, and one on which economists have made notable contributions.

Progress in Global Modeling for World Policy on Arms Control and Environmental Management

In this paper, I wish to report on progress on global modeling for world policy on arms and environmental control. Needless to say, in the minds of many, arms control and environmental management are the two most important problems confronting the world today. However, before spelling out the advances scored, it is pertinent to say a few words about the role and relevance of global modeling. There are, as is well known, scholars and analysts skeptical of the usefulness of big models who will undoubtedly be even more skeptical of the usefulness of still bigger models such as the one envisioned in this paper. They will make the usual claim that such big models are beyond the understanding of any one individual and that no one can understand the detailed operation of a model that embodies 50,000 equations, let alone the 20,000 in the LINK submodel to be used. Yet there are other scholars expert in a particular part of the global model who do, or should, recognize how, from the operation of a global model, some key variables in one part are linked to one or more key variables in other parts. Then there are other scholars who perhaps lack the ability to examine and fully understand in detail the operation of any part but who do have the capacity for perceiving the grand picture-for seeing how the parts are interconnected in the main, and for understanding those connections, For each part of a global model, one or more of these scholars will undoubtedly have the capacity for identifying an expert who understands that part in depth. The scholar, thus, can assemble a team to direct the use of each part in a global model operation. Finally, to reiterate, no model ever replaces intuition in both theorizing and attaching significance to any set of generated numbers.

On location analysis for urban and regional growth situations

A NEW APPROACH TO THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGING SPATIAL PATTERNS AND PROCESSES OVER TIME IS PRESENTED. THIS APPROACH STEMS FROM THE LAWS OF MOTION AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAGRANGIAN AND HAMILTONIAN CONCEPTS OF MATHEMATICS, WITH IDEAS FROM MODERN PHYSICS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SOME FEEDBACK EFFECTS. A LOGICAL CONSISTENT MODEL IS BUILT UP CENTERING AROUND THE LOCATION OF MAJOR FACILITIES, NEW INDUSTRIAL DISTRICTS, NEW SHOPPING CENTERS, NEW TOWNS, AND NEW PARKS AND OPEN SPACES. /AUTHOR/

The Future of Regional Science: Remarks Prompted by Professors Alonso and Teitz

Little-known remarks of William Alonso are presented in this article. They are seminal to the question addressed by the author of whether regional science is a discipline or field of study appropriate for departmental or equivalent status.

Social System Framework and Causal History: Part I, Learning Processes

This paper aims to begin to construct a framework for developing “causal history.” By causal history I mean the understanding (and not just the depicting) of processes that take place in space and time which bear upon the historic record of man’s habitation of the planet Earth. Implicit is the assumption that, in the narrow sense, causes of these processes can be discovered-whether these processes are broad sweeping and take place over centuries or are much shorter and pertain to day-today decisions of significant moment. Viewed in the above manner, causal history is only part of the larger set of processes taking place over time and space, which is usually taken to constitute evolution. Evolution covers both adaptation (nonmotivated behavior) and motivated behavior. According to the synthetic theory of evolution and its recent extensions, the forms and structures of matter (including human societies) that have survived at any point of time and space are those that have met the competition. It would be extremely convenient if we could limit causal history to processes generated by motivated behavior, were we able to define that concept. But we cannot. Motivated behavior takes place in an environment where adaptation (and hence change) is omnipresent. Therefore, such change must be taken into account when we try to understand and then desirably forecast motivated behavior and the processes consequent to it. Nonetheless, as a working definition we can narrow our exceedingly difficult task and view causal history as motivated behavior within a setting of constant, ongoing adaptations. The realm of motivated behavior is not only immense, but complex beyond description. All that any one can legitimately aspire to do is to