Walter M. Hannah

The Role of Moisture–Convection Feedbacks in Simulating the Madden–Julian Oscillation

AbstractThe sensitivity of a simulated Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was investigated in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model 3.1 with the relaxed Arakawa–Schubert convection scheme by analyzing the model’s response to varying the strength of two moisture sensitivity parameters. A higher value of either the minimum entrainment rate or rain evaporation fraction results in increased intraseasonal variability, a more coherent MJO, and enhanced moisture–convection feedbacks in the model. Changes to the mean state are inconsistent between the two methods. Increasing the minimum entrainment leads to a cooler and drier troposphere, whereas increasing the rain evaporation fraction causes warming and moistening. These results suggest that no straightforward correspondence exists between the MJO and the mean humidity, contrary to previous studies.Analysis of the mean column-integrated and normalized moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals a substantial reduction of gross moist stability (GMS) for increased minimu...

The moist static energy budget in NCAR CAM5 hindcasts during DYNAMO

The Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign took place in the Indian Ocean during boreal fall and winter of 2011–2012 to collect observations of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiation. Hindcast experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model with varying values of a dilute CAPE entrainment rate parameter for the first two MJO events of DYNAMO from 1 October 2011 to 15 December 2011. Higher entrainment rates better reproduce MJO precipitation and zonal wind, with RMM skill up to 20 days. Simulations with lower entrainment rapidly diverge from observations with no coherent MJO convective signal after 5 days, and no MJO predictive skill beyond 12 days. Analysis of the tropical Indian Ocean column moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals that the simulations with superior MJO performance exhibit a mean positive MSE tendency by vertical advection; inconsistent with reanalysis that indicates a weak negative tendency. All simulations have weaker mean MSE source tendency and significantly weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks. The vertical gross moist stability (VGMS) is used to interpret these MSE budget results in a normalized framework relevant to moisture mode theory. VGMS in the high entrainment runs is far too low compared to ERAi, indicating that it cannot be used in isolation as a measure of model success in producing a realistic MJO hindcast, contrary to previous studies. However, effective VGMS that includes radiative feedbacks is similar among the high entrainment runs and ERAi. We conclude that the MJO is erroneously improved by increasing the entrainment parameter because moistening by vertical MSE advection compensates for the overly weak cloud-radiative feedbacks.

A Lagrangian View of Moisture Dynamics during DYNAMO

Column water vapor (CWV) is studied using data from the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field experiment. A distinctive moist mode in tropical CVW probability distributions motivates the work. The Lagrangian CWV tendency (LCT) leaves together the compensating tendencies from phase change and vertical advection, quantities which cannot be measured accurately by themselves, to emphasize their small residual, which governs evolution. The slope of LCT vs. CWV suggests that the combined effects of phase changes and vertical advection act as a robust positive feedback on CWV variations, while evaporation adds a broadscale positive tendency. Analyzed diabatic heating profiles become deeper and stronger as CWV increases. Stratiform heating is found to accompany Lagrangian drying at high CWV, but its association with deep convection makes the mean LCT positive at high CWV. Lower-tropospheric wind convergence is found in high-CVW airmasses, acting to shrink their area in time. When ECMWF heating profile indices and S-POL and TRMM radar data are binned jointly by CWV and LCT, bottom-heavy heating associated with shallow and congestus convection is found in columns transitioning through Lagrangian moistening into the humid, high-rainrate mode of the CWV distribution near 50-55mm, while non-raining columns and columns with widespread stratiform precipitation are preferentially associated with Lagrangian drying. Interpolated sounding-array data produce substantial errors in LCT budgets, because horizontal advection is inaccurate without satellite input to constrain horizontal gradients.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

Significance A substantial fraction of the world’s most intense thunderstorms occur in the tropics and subtropics, but the response of such storms to climate change remains uncertain. Here, we show that, in simulations of global warming, a measure of the energy available to thunderstorms increases robustly across the tropics and subtropics. Furthermore, we elucidate an important mechanism contributing to such increases in available energy, and we present observational evidence that this mechanism is present in Earth’s atmosphere. By combining theory, observations, and models, our results provide confidence in climate model projections of future intense thunderstorm potential; such model projections are shown to imply large future increases in the frequency of damaging thunderstorm environments in tropical and subtropical regions. Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere.

Reduced African Easterly Wave Activity with Quadrupled CO2 in the Superparameterized CESM

AbstractAfrican easterly wave (AEW) activity is examined in quadrupled CO2 experiments with the superparameterized CESM (SP-CESM). The variance of 2–10-day filtered precipitation increases with warming over the West African monsoon region, suggesting increased AEW activity. The perturbation enstrophy budget is used to investigate the dynamic signature of AEW activity. The northern wave track becomes more active associated with enhanced baroclinicity, consistent with previous studies. The southern track exhibits a surprising reduction of wave activity associated with less frequent occurrence of weak waves and a slight increase in the occurrence of strong waves. These changes are connected to changes in the profile of vortex stretching and tilting that can be understood as interconnected consequences of increased static stability from the lapse rate response, weak temperature gradient balance, and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis.

Consequences of systematic model drift in DYNAMO MJO hindcasts with SP-CAM and CAM5

Hindcast simulations of MJO events during the dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign are conducted with two models, one with conventional parameterization (CAM5) and a comparable model that utilizes superparameterization (SP-CAM). SP-CAM is shown to produce a qualitatively better reproduction of the fluctuations of precipitation and low-level zonal wind associated with the first two DYNAMO MJO events compared to CAM5. Interestingly, skill metrics using the real-time multivariate MJO index (RMM) suggest the opposite conclusion that CAM5 has more skill than SP-CAM. This inconsistency can be explained by a systematic increase of RMM amplitude with lead time, which results from a drift of the large-scale wind field in SP-CAM that projects strongly onto the RMM index. CAM5 hindcasts exhibit a contraction of the moisture distribution, in which extreme wet and dry conditions become less frequent with lead time. SP-CAM hindcasts better reproduce the observed moisture distribution, but also have stronger drift patterns of moisture budget terms, such as an increase in drying by meridional advection in SP-CAM. This advection tendency in SP-CAM appears to be associated with enhanced off-equatorial synoptic eddy activity with lead time. Systematic drift moisture tendencies in SP-CAM are of similar magnitude to intraseasonal moisture tendencies, and therefore are important for understanding MJO prediction skill.

Future Community Efforts in Understanding and Modeling Atmospheric Processes

What: About 160 participants from some 20 countries, representing the weather and climate modeling community, held an international workshop to overview the progress in understanding and modeling atmospheric processes and to discuss promising ideas for future community projects. When: 26 February–2 March 2018 Where: Lorne, Victoria, Australia FUTURE COMMUNITY EFFORTS IN UNDERSTANDING AND MODELING ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES

Entrainment versus Dilution in Tropical Deep Convection

AbstractThe distinction between entrainment and dilution is investigated with cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection in a tropical environment. A method for estimating the rate of dilution by entrainment and detrainment is presented and calculated for a series of bubble simulations with a range of initial radii. Entrainment generally corresponds to dilution of convection, but the two quantities are not well correlated. Core dilution by entrainment is significantly reduced by the presence of a shell of moist air around the core. Dilution by entrainment also increases with increasing updraft velocity but only for sufficiently strong updrafts. Entrainment contributes significantly to the total net dilution, but detrainment and the various source/sink terms play large roles depending on the variable in question. Detrainment has a concentrating effect on average that balances out the dilution by entrainment. The experiments are also used to examine whether entrainment or dilution scale with cloud radiu...