Walter Massa Ramalho

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts

BACKGROUND With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING European Commissions Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

Georreferenciamento de dados de saúde na escala submunicipal: algumas experiências no Brasil

This work describes experiences in geocoding health data in Brazilian municipalities, analyzed according to the availability and update of cartographic databases and the treatment given to addresses data in health information systems (SIS). The diversity of current geocoding strategies in Brazil results of local conditions on which these projects are developed, presenting variable efficiency and accuracy for health event location. The authors suggest strategies to capture and store addresses data in SIS, compatible with the existent street registries, as well as the development of programs and scripts to search and link these two databases.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001

Associação ecológica entre características dos municípios e o risco de homicídios em homens adultos de 20-39 anos de idade no Brasil, 1999-2010

Homicide mortality remains a major public health problem in Brazil, especially among young adult males. The aim of this study was to assess the homicide mortality risk (HMR) among males aged 20 to 39, and its association with selected socio-demographic characteristics of the Brazilian municipalities. This is an ecologic study in which all the municipalities in Brazil were the unit of analysis. Time trends (from 1999-2002) and adjusted associations between HMR and socio-demographic characteristics of municipalities were estimated in a cross-sectional analysis for 2007-2010 in this study. Between 1999-2002 and 2007-2010, an increasing trend of mean HMR rates from 22.7 to 35.5 per 100,000 inhabitants was observed in Brazil. In 2007-2010, HMR rates were significantly higher (p<0.001) in the largest cities, with higher fertility rates, lower literacy rates, higher social inequality (as estimated by the 20/40 income ratio) and more-urbanized municipalities. Considering the proportion of low income population and the average per capita income, associations with HMR identified greater risks in the intermediary categories of these independent variables. Findings from this study may support the implementation of focal policies directed to more vulnerable municipalities.

Impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal meningitis in children up to two years of age in Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of vaccination against Streptococcus pneumoniae on the morbidity and mortality from pneumococcal meningitis in children ≤ 2 years in Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. This is a descriptive study and ecological analysis using data from the Information System on Notifiable Diseases. Pre-vaccination (2007-2009) and post-vaccination (2011-2012) periods were defined to compare incidence rates and mortality. A total of 1,311 cases and 430 deaths were reported during the study period. Incidence decreased from 3.70/100,000 in 2007 to 1.84/100,000 in 2012, and mortality decreased from 1.30/100,000 to 0.40/100,000, or 50% and 69% respectively, with the greatest impact in the 6-11 month age group. This decrease in Pneumococcal meningitis morbidity and mortality rates two years after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine suggests its effectiveness.Dissertacao (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasilia, Faculdade UnB Ceilândia, Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Ciencias e Tecnologias em Saude, 2013.

The changing distribution of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon, 2003-2004 and 2008-2009

INTRODUCTION More than half of the malaria cases reported in the Americas are from the Brazilian Amazon region. While malaria is considered endemic in this region, its geographical distribution is extremely heterogeneous. Therefore, it is important to investigate the distribution of malaria and to determine regions whereby action might be necessary. METHODS Changes in malaria indicators in all municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon between 2003-2004 and 2008-2009 were studied. The malaria indicators included the absolute number of malaria cases and deaths, the bi-annual parasite incidence (BPI), BPI ratios and differences, a Lorenz curve and Gini coefficients. RESULTS During the study period, mortality from malaria remained low (0.02% deaths/case), the percent of municipalities that became malaria-free increased from 15.6% to 31.7%, and the Gini coefficient increased from 82% to 87%. In 2003, 10% of the municipalities with the highest BPI accumulated 67% of all malaria cases, compared with 2009, when 10% of the municipalities (with the highest BPI) had 80% of the malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS This study described an overall decrease in malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon region. As expected, an increased heterogeneity of malaria indicators was found, which reinforces the notion that a single strategy may not bring about uniformly good outcomes. The geographic clustering of municipalities identified as problem areas might help to define better intervention methods.

Inequalities in infant mortality among municipalities in Brazil according to the Family Development Index, 2006-2008

OBJECTIVE To describe inequalities in the infant mortality rate (IMR) according to socioeconomic indicators among geographic areas and municipalities in Brazil. METHODS This was an exploratory ecological study of space aggregates that described IMR in 2006-2008 according to municipalities, states, and the Family Development Index (FDI), a socioeconomic indicator that ranges from 0 to 1. All the municipalities in Brazil were categorized according to four strata as defined by FDI quartiles, where stratum 4 included those with better FDI conditions, and stratum 1, worse conditions. The selected inequality measures were: Concentration Index, Attributable Risk Percent, Population Attributable Risk Percent, Rate Ratio, and number of avoidable events (number of infant deaths). RESULTS The average IMR (per 1 000 live births) according to the FDI strata were: stratum 1 (FDI = 0.41-0.52) = 18.8; stratum 2 (FDI = 0.53-0.55) = 17.9; stratum 3 (FDI = 0.56-0.58) = 15.0; and stratum 4 (FDI = 0.59-0.73) = 13.4. Overall, the Concentration Index was 0.02. Moreover, stratum 1, with a proportion of 17% of all live births in the population, had a concentration of 20% of infant deaths. Additionally, the profile of causes and ages of infant mortality also differed qualitatively when stratum 1 was compared to stratum 4. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest an association between the socioeconomic indicators, specifically the FDI, and the risk of infant death. These results call attention to the specific population groups in Brazil that are most vulnerable to infant mortality and demonstrate that the FDI can be used to identify these populations.

Impacto da vacina pneumocócica conjugada 10-valente na meningite pneumocócica em crianças com até dois anos de idade no Brasil

The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of vaccination against Streptococcus pneumoniae on the morbidity and mortality from pneumococcal meningitis in children ≤ 2 years in Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. This is a descriptive study and ecological analysis using data from the Information System on Notifiable Diseases. Pre-vaccination (2007-2009) and post-vaccination (2011-2012) periods were defined to compare incidence rates and mortality. A total of 1,311 cases and 430 deaths were reported during the study period. Incidence decreased from 3.70/100,000 in 2007 to 1.84/100,000 in 2012, and mortality decreased from 1.30/100,000 to 0.40/100,000, or 50% and 69% respectively, with the greatest impact in the 6-11 month age group. This decrease in Pneumococcal meningitis morbidity and mortality rates two years after introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine suggests its effectiveness.Dissertacao (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasilia, Faculdade UnB Ceilândia, Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Ciencias e Tecnologias em Saude, 2013.

Measuring the invisible: Analysis of the Sustainable Development Goals in relation to populations exposed to drought

Brazil, together with all the member countries of the United Nations, is in a process of adoption of a group of Sustainable Development Goals, including targets and indicators. This article considers the implications of these goals and their proposed targets, for the Semi-Arid region of Brazil. This region has recurring droughts which may worsen with climate change, further weakening the situation of access of water for human consumption in sufficient quantity and quality, and as a result, the health conditions of the exposed populations. This study identifies the relationship between drought and health, in an effort to measure progress in this region (1,135 municipalities), comparing relevant indicators with the other 4,430 municipalities in Brazil, based on census data from 1991, 2000 and 2010. Important inequalities between the municipalities of this region and the municipalities of the rest of Brazil are identified, and discussed in the context of what is necessary for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the Semi-arid Region, principally in relation to the measures for adaptation to achieve universal and equitable access to drinking water.Brazil, together with all the member countries of the United Nations, is in a process of adoption of a group of Sustainable Development Goals, including targets and indicators. This article considers the implications of these goals and their proposed targets, for the Semi-Arid region of Brazil. This region has recurring droughts which may worsen with climate change, further weakening the situation of access of water for human consumption in sufficient quantity and quality, and as a result, the health conditions of the exposed populations. This study identifies the relationship between drought and health, in an effort to measure progress in this region (1,135 municipalities), comparing relevant indicators with the other 4,430 municipalities in Brazil, based on census data from 1991, 2000 and 2010. Important inequalities between the municipalities of this region and the municipalities of the rest of Brazil are identified, and discussed in the context of what is necessary for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the Semi-arid Region, principally in relation to the measures for adaptation to achieve universal and equitable access to drinking water.

Social determinants of tuberculosis via a zero-inflated model in small areas of a city in Southeastern Brazil

INTRODUCTION This study aimed to analyze social factors involved in the spatial distribution and under-reporting of tuberculosis (TB) in the city of Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil. METHODS This was an ecological study of the reported cases of TB between 2009 and 2011, according to census tracts. The outcome was TB incidence for the study period and the variables of exposure were proportions of literacy, inhabitants with an income of up to half the minimum monthly wage (MMW), and inhabitants associated with sewer mains or with access to safe drinking water. We used a zero-inflated process, zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB), and selected an explanatory model based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS A total of 588 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Vitória during the study period, distributed among 223 census tracts (38.6%), with 354 (61.4%) tracts presenting zero cases. In the ZINB model, the mean value of p i was 0.93, indicating that there is a 93% chance that an observed false zero could be due to sub-notification. CONCLUSIONS It is important to prioritize areas exhibiting determinants that influence the occurrence of TB in the municipality of Vitória. The zero-inflated model can be useful to the public health sector since it identifies the percentage of false zeros, generating an estimate of the real epidemiological condition of TB in Vitória.