Walter P. Abhayaratna

Secular Trends in Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and Implications on the Projections for Future Prevalence

Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P=0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P=0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues. Conclusions— The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.

Left Atrial Reservoir Function as a Potent Marker for First Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter in Persons ≥ 65 Years of Age

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the incremental value of left atrial (LA) function for the prediction of risk for first atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter. Maximum and minimum LA volumes were quantitated by echocardiography in 574 adults (mean age 74 +/- 6 years, 52% men) without a history or evidence of atrial arrhythmia. During a mean follow-up period of 1.9 +/- 1.2 years, 30 subjects (5.2%) developed electrocardiographically confirmed AF or atrial flutter. Subjects with new AF or atrial flutter had lower LA reservoir function, as measured by total LA emptying fraction (38% vs 49%, p <0.0001) and higher maximum LA volumes (47 vs 40 ml/m(2), p = 0.005). An increase in age-adjusted risk for AF or atrial flutter was evident when the cohort was stratified according to medians of LA emptying fraction (< or =49%: hazard ratio 6.5, p = 0.001) and LA volume (> or =38 ml/m(2): hazard ratio 2.0, p = 0.07), with the risk being highest for subjects with concomitant LA emptying fractions < or =49% and LA volume > or =38 ml/m(2) (hazard ratio 9.3, p = 0.003). LA emptying fraction (p = 0.002) was associated with risk for first AF or atrial flutter after adjusting for baseline clinical risk factors for AF or atrial flutter, left ventricular ejection fraction, diastolic function grade, and LA volume. In conclusion, reduced LA reservoir function markedly increases the propensity for first AF or atrial flutter, independent of LA volume, left ventricular function, and clinical risk factors.

Disparate patterns of left ventricular mechanics differentiate constrictive pericarditis from restrictive cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to compare the longitudinal, circumferential, and radial mechanics of the left ventricle (LV) in patients with constrictive pericarditis (CP) and restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM). BACKGROUND Diastolic dysfunction in CP is related to epicardial tethering and pericardial constraint, whereas in RCM it is predominantly characterized by subendocardial dysfunction. Assessment of variations in longitudinal and circumferential deformation of LV might be useful to distinguish these 2 conditions. METHODS Longitudinal, radial, and circumferential mechanics of the LV were quantified by 2-dimensional speckle tracking of B-mode cardiac ultrasound images in 26 patients with CP, 19 patients with RCM, and 21 control subjects. RESULTS In comparison with control subjects, patients with CP had significantly reduced circumferential strain (base; -16 +/- 6% vs. -9 +/- 6%; p < 0.016), torsion (3 +/- 1 degrees /cm vs. 1 +/- 1 degrees /cm; p < 0.016), and early diastolic apical untwisting velocities (E(r); 116 +/- 62 degrees /s vs. -36 +/- 50 degrees /s; p < 0.016), whereas longitudinal strains, displacement, and early diastolic velocities at the LV base (E(m)) were similar to control subjects. In contrast, patients with RCM showed significantly reduced longitudinal displacement (base; 14.7 +/- 2.5 cm vs. 9.8 +/- 2.8 cm; p < 0.016) and E(m) (-8.7 +/- 1.3 cm/s vs. -4.4 +/- 1.1 cm/s; p < 0.016), whereas circumferential strain and E(r) were similar to those of control subjects. For differentiation of CP from RCM, the area under the curve was significantly higher for E(m) in comparison with E(r) (0.97 vs. 0.76, respectively; p = 0.01). After pericardiectomy, there was a significant decrease in longitudinal early diastolic LV basal myocardial velocities (7.4 cm/s vs. 6.8 cm/s; p = 0.023). Circumferential strain, torsion, and E(r), however, remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS Deformation of the LV is constrained in the circumferential direction in CP and in the longitudinal direction in RCM. Subsequent early diastolic recoil of LV is also attenuated in each of the 2 directions, respectively, uniquely differentiating the abnormal diastolic restoration mechanics of the LV seen in CP and RCM.

Comparison of Usefulness of Tissue Doppler Imaging Versus Brain Natriuretic Peptide for Differentiation of Constrictive Pericardial Disease from Restrictive Cardiomyopathy

Brain (B-type) natriuretic peptide (BNP) and tissue Doppler imaging may distinguish restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCMP) from idiopathic constrictive pericardial disease (CP). However, their comparative efficacy is unknown for patients with CP from secondary causes (e.g., surgery or radiotherapy). We compared the efficacy of tissue Doppler imaging and BNP for differentiation of RCMP (n = 15) and CP (n = 16) were compared. BNP was higher in patients with RCMP than CP (p = 0.008), but the groups overlapped, particularly for BNP <400 pg/ml. BNP was lower with idiopathic CP than secondary CP (139 +/- 50 vs 293 +/- 69 pg/ml; p <0.001) or RCMP (139 +/- 50 vs 595 +/- 499 pg/ml; p <0.001), but not significantly different between those with secondary CP and RCMP (293 +/- 69 vs 595 +/- 499 pg/ml; p = 0.1). Patients with CP and RCMP had less overlap in early diastolic and isovolumic contraction tissue Doppler imaging velocities compared with BNP, with clear separation of groups evident with mean early diastolic annular velocities (averaged from 4 walls). Early diastolic tissue Doppler imaging velocity was superior to BNP for differentiation of CP and RCMP (area under the curve 0.97 vs 0.76, respectively; p = 0.01). In conclusion, mean early diastolic mitral annular velocity correctly distinguished CP from RCMP even when there was a large overlap of BNP between the 2 groups.

Tissue Doppler image-derived measurements during isovolumic contraction predict exercise capacity in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

OBJECTIVES We explored the incremental value of quantification of tissue Doppler (TD) velocity during the brief isovolumic contraction (IVC) phase of the cardiac cycle for the prediction of exercise performance in patients referred for cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). BACKGROUND Experimental studies have shown that rapid left ventricular (LV) shape change during IVC is essential for optimal onset of LV ejection. However, the incremental value of measuring IVC velocities in clinical settings remains unclear. METHODS A total of 82 subjects (age 53+/-14 years, 56 men) were studied with echocardiography and CPET. Reduced LV ejection fraction (EF) (EF<50%) was present in 38 (46%) subjects. Pulsed-wave annular TD velocities were averaged from the LV lateral and septal annulus during isovolumic contraction (IVCa), ejection, isovolumic relaxation, and early and late diastole (Aa) and compared with peak oxygen consumption (VO2) and percentage of the predicted peak VO2 (% predicted peak VO2) obtained from CPET. RESULTS Patients with reduced EF had lower IVCa (6.3 vs. 4.5 cm/s, p=0.04), ejection (7.7 vs. 5.5 cm/s, p<0.001), and Aa velocities (7.9 vs. 6.6 cm/s, p=0.04). Similarly, % predicted peak VO2 was lower in patients with reduced EF (52.9% vs. 73.1%, p<0.001) and correlated with the variations in IVCa (r=0.7, p=0.001). Multivariate analysis of 2-dimensional and Doppler variables in the presence of reduced LV EF revealed only IVCa and Aa as independent predictors of % predicted peak VO2 (r2=0.612, p=0.02 for IVCa and p=0.009 for Aa). The overall performance of IVCa in the prediction of exercise capacity was good (area under the curve=0.86, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Assessment of TD-derived IVC and atrial stretch velocities provide independent prediction of exercise capacity in patients with reduced LV EF. Assessment of LV pre-ejectional stretch and shortening mechanics at rest may be useful for determining the myocardial functional reserve of patients with reduced EF.