Walter W. Piegorsch

A Sensitivity Analysis of the Social Vulnerability Index

The Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI), created by Cutter et al. (2003), examined the spatial patterns of social vulnerability to natural hazards at the county level in the United States in order to describe and understand the social burdens of risk. The purpose of this article is to examine the sensitivity of quantitative features underlying the SoVI approach to changes in its construction, the scale at which it is applied, the set of variables used, and to various geographic contexts. First, the SoVI was calculated for multiple aggregation levels in the State of South Carolina and with a subset of the original variables to determine the impact of scalar and variable changes on index construction. Second, to test the sensitivity of the algorithm to changes in construction, and to determine if that sensitivity was constant in various geographic contexts, census data were collected at a submetropolitan level for three study sites: Charleston, SC; Los Angeles, CA; and New Orleans, LA. Fifty-four unique variations of the SoVI were calculated for each study area and evaluated using factorial analysis. These results were then compared across study areas to evaluate the impact of changing geographic context. While decreases in the scale of aggregation were found to result in decreases in the variance explained by principal components analysis (PCA), and in increases in the variance of the resulting index values, the subjective interpretations yielded from the SoVI remained fairly stable. The algorithms sensitivity to certain changes in index construction differed somewhat among the study areas. Understanding the impacts of changes in index construction and scale are crucial in increasing user confidence in metrics designed to represent the extremely complex phenomenon of social vulnerability.

Vulnerability of U.S. Cities to Environmental Hazards

As cities continue to increase in size, population diversity, and complexity their vulnerability to future disasters will increase as well. This paper explores the variability in vulnerability to natural hazards among the 132 urban areas using three indices of vulnerability: social, built environment, and hazard impact. The paper then examines the relative levels of vulnerability compared to federal UASI funding. The paper demonstrates that vulnerability manifests itself as a place-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities located in the eastern half of the U.S. The relative importance of the underlying correlates changes from city to city across the United States with social vulnerability assuming greater importance in the South and Southwest, and built environment vulnerability showing regional primacy as the driving indicator among Northeastern and Midwestern cities. Based on this empirical analysis, New Orleans was the most vulnerable urban area in the U.S. yet received only one percent of the preparedness resources awarded by the federal government.

Measuring Intra-Assay Agreement for the Ames Salmonella Assay

To assess the effects of exposure to toxic stimuli, the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) conducts bioassays in various organisms, each with a different biological endpoint. Mutagenic damage, as indicated by the Salmonella assay (Ames et al., 1975), is a major concern. The Salmonella assay occupies a central role in the genotoxicity testing program undertaken by the NTP. This program has involved numerous chemicals, tested under code, and under strictly controlled protocols at a number of laboratories.

Acrylamide: Dermal Exposure Produces Genetic Damage in Male Mouse Germ Cells

Acrylamide is used extensively in sewage and wastewater treatment plants, in the paper and pulp industry, in treatment of potable water, and in research laboratories for chromatography, electrophoresis, and electron microscopy. Dermal contact is a major route of human exposure. It has been shown that acrylamide is highly effective in breaking chromosomes of germ cells of male mice and rats when administered intraperitoneally or orally, resulting both in the early death of conceptuses and in the transmission of reciprocal translocations to live-born progeny. It is now reported that acrylamide is absorbed through the skin of male mice, reaches the germ cells, and induces chromosomal damage. The magnitude of genetic damage appears to be proportional to the dose administered topically.

Multiple comparisons for analyzing dichotomous response.

Dichotomous response models are common in many experimental settings. Statistical parameters of interest are typically the probabilities, pi, that an experimental unit will respond at the various treatment levels. Herein, simultaneous procedures are considered for multiple comparisons among these probabilities, with attention directed at construction of simultaneous confidence intervals for various functions of the pi. The inferences are based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator of pi. Specific applications include all pairwise comparisons and comparisons with a fixed (control) treatment. Monte Carlo evaluations are undertaken to examine the small-sample properties of the various procedures. It is seen that use of the usual estimates of variance consistently leads to less-than-nominal empirical coverage for most sample sizes examined. For very large samples (total size greater than about 300), nominal coverage is achieved. A reformulation of the pairwise comparisons using a construction noted by Beal (1987, Biometrics 43, 941-950) is shown to exhibit generally nominal empirical coverage characteristics, and is recommended for use with small-to-moderate sample sizes.

Developmental response of zygotes exposed to similar mutagens

Exposure of mouse zygotes to ethylene oxide (EtO) or ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) led to high incidences of fetal death and of certain classes of fetal malformations (Generoso et al., 1987, 1988; Rutledge and Generoso, 1989). These effects were not associated with induced chromosomal aberrations (Katoh et al., 1989) nor are they likely to be caused by gene mutations (Generoso et al., 1990). Nevertheless, the anomalies observed in these studies resemble the large class of stillbirths and sporadic defects in humans that are of unknown etiology, such as cleft palate, omphalocoel, clubfoot, hydrops and stillbirths (Czeizel, 1985; Oakley, 1986). Therefore, we continue to study the possible mechanisms relating to induction of these types of zygote-derived anomalies in mice. Effects of zygote exposure to the compounds methyl methanesulfonate (MMS), dimethyl sulfate (DMS), and diethyl sulfate (DES), which have similar DNA-binding properties as EtO and EMS, were studied. DMS and DES, but not MMS, induced effects that are similar to those induced by EtO and EMS. Thus, no site-specific alkylation product was identifiable as the critical target for these zygote-derived anomalies. We speculate that the developmental anomalies arose as a result of altered programming of gene expression during embryogenesis.

Exploring relationships between mutagenic and carcinogenic potencies.

Salmonella mutagenic and rodent carcinogenic potencies are calculated for 112 compounds recently studied by the U.S. National Toxicology Program. 28 of the 112 compounds are seen to exhibit simultaneous non-zero mutagenic and carcinogenic potencies. These are combined with an earlier list of mutagenic and carcinogenic compounds (McCann et al., 1988) in order to study possible trends in the data. A significant positive correlation is exhibited between mutagenic and carcinogenic potencies in the combined data, although the observed scatter is too great for the overall result to be predictive. Classification by chemical class further indicates positive correlations near one for chemicals classified as nitroaromatic and related compounds. Patterns in mutagenic and carcinogenic potency over time are also examined. Mean potencies of recently-studied compounds are seen to trend lower than those of compounds studied 10 or more years ago.

Assessing overdispersion and dose-response in the male dominant lethal assay.

In dominant lethal studies the primary variables of interest are typically expressed as discrete counts or proportions (e.g., live implants, resorptions, percent pregnant). Simple statistical sampling models for discrete data such as binomial or Poisson generally do not fit this type of data because of extra-binomial or extra-Poisson departures from variability predicted under these simple models. Extra-variability in the fetal response may originate from parental contributions. These can lead to over- or under-dispersion seen as, e.g., extra-binomial variability in the proportion response. Utilizing a large control database, we investigated the relative impact of extra-variability from male or female contributions on the endpoints of interest. Male-related effects did not seem to contribute to overdispersion in our database; female-related effects were, however, evidenced. Various statistical methods were considered to test for significant treatment differences under these forms of sampling variability. Computer simulations were used to evaluate these methods and to determine which are most appropriate for practical use in the evaluation of dominant lethal data. Our results suggest that distribution-free statistical methods such as a nonparametric permutation test or rank-based tests for trend can be recommended for use.

Estimating integrals using quadrature methods with an application in pharmacokinetics

The estimation of integrals using numerical quadrature is common in many biological studies. For instance, in biopharmaceutical research the area under curves is a useful quantity in deriving pharmacokinetic parameters and in providing a surrogate measure of the total dose of a compound at a particular site. In this paper, statistical issues as separate from numerical issues are considered in choosing a quadrature rule. The class of Newton-Côtes numerical quadrature procedures is examined from the perspective of minimizing mean squared error (MSE). The MSE are examined for a variety of functions commonly encountered in pharmacokinetics. It is seen that the simplest Newton-Côtes procedure, the trapezoidal rule, frequently provides minimum MSE for a variety of concentration-time shapes and under a variety of response variance conditions. A biopharmaceutical example is presented to illustrate these considerations.

Sources of variability in data from a positive selection lacZ transgenic mouse mutation assay: An interlaboratory study

Experimental features of a positive selection transgenic mouse mutation assay based on a lambda lacZ transgene are considered in detail, with emphasis on results using germ cells as the target tissue. Sources of variability in the experimental protocol that can affect the statistical nature of the observations are examined, with the goal of identifying sources of excess variation in the observed mutant frequencies. The sources include plate-to-plate (within packages), package-to-package (within animals), and animal-to-animal variability. Data from five laboratories are evaluated in detail. Results suggest only scattered patterns of excess variability below the animal-to-animal level, but, generally, significant excess variability at the animal-to-animal level. Using source of variability analyses to guide the choice of statistical methods, control-vs-treatment comparisons are performed for assessing the male germ cell mutagenicity of ethylnitrosourea (ENU), isopropyl methanesulfonate (iPMS), and methyl methanesulfonate (MMS). Results on male germ cell mutagenesis of ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) and methylnitrosourea (MNU) are also reported.