Wan Ru Huang

Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Rainfall variation of the East Asian summer monsoon has long been believed to be caused by the transition of weather regimes in company with the evolution of monsoon circulation. However, this claim was neither comprehensively analyzed nor convincingly demonstrated. Four datasets [Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) rainfall, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 6-h surface analysis maps, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 6-h tropical cyclone tracks] were used to depict the climatology of the monsoon rainfall variation and to explore the cause of this variation, particularly through the relationship between the seasonal evolution of the monsoon circulation and the associated synoptic disturbance activity. The monsoon life cycle in the southern part of East Asia is basically developed by the sequential passages of the mei-yu rainband in early summer, the western Pacific subtropical high in midsummer, and the tropical cyclone activit...

Interannual variation of the east Asian cold surge activity

Abstract The occurrence frequency of the east Asian cold surge exhibits an interannual variation in concert with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. That is, the cold surge occurs more (less) frequently during warm (cold) ENSO winters. Because the cold surge high–low dipoles are coupled with the upper-level synoptic short waves, any mechanism modulating the activity of these waves would affect the cold surge activity. The streamfunction budget analysis in the short-wave regime indicates that the development of the cold surge short-wave train over east Asia and the northwest Pacific is modulated by the North Pacific ENSO short-wave train. Due to the coupling between the upper-level cold surge short-wave train and the surface cold surge dipole, it is inferred from this streamfunction budget analysis that the interannual variation of the cold surge occurrence frequency is a result of this modulation.

An East Asian Cold Surge: Case Study

Abstract Since a cold surge is a hazardous weather phenomenon in east Asia, the rapid population increase and economic growth over the past two decades require improvement in forecasting cold surges and their related weather events over this region. However, without a better understanding of these events, this task cannot be accomplished. A cold surge with a well-defined cold front passing through Taiwan was selected to illustrate its impact on the east Asian weather system. This case is typical of a large portion of surges occurring in the region. Major findings of this study are as follows. Coupling with the upper ridge–trough structures of the wave train straddling the eastern seaboard of northeast Asia, cold surges occur sequentially. A cold front with a prefront high pressure zone is formed by the new surge outflow interacting with the anticyclone of the aging surge. The warm moist air advected northeastward along the cold front assists the development of the new surges low center, while the prefron...

Dynamical downscaling forecasts of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis and landfall

This study evaluates the potential use of the regional climate model version 3 (RegCM3) driven by (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data during 1982–2001 and (2) the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFS2) hindcast data during 2000–2010 in forecasting Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The first experiment is conducted to investigate the ability of the model in generating a good climatology of TC activity in spatial and temporal scales, so the model could be used in the second experiment to test its ability in forecasting TC genesis and landfall. Both experiments extend through the May to October WNP-TC season. Results show that the use of RegCM3 driven by the CFSR achieves a better simulation on the temporal and spatial variation of WNP-TC genesis during 1982–2001, as compared to previous studies using the same model but driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. In addition, diagnoses on the use of RegCM3 driven by the CFS2 point out that the 2000–2010 WNP-TC genesis locations and numbers from the model are very similar to those from the observations. The skill of RegCM3 in the forecasts of landfalling TCs is higher over the Southeast Asian region than over the other sub-regions of East Asia. Potential causes for such regional differences are discussed. Most importantly, statistical analyses show that the use of RegCM3 driven by the CFS2 gives a better forecast skill than the use of CFS2 alone for the prediction of WNP-TCs making landfall in East Asia. This indicates that the use of a dynamical downscaling method for the global forecast data would likely lead to a higher forecast skill of regional TC landfalls in most of the East Asian region.

Regional climate simulations of summer diurnal rainfall variations over East Asia and Southeast China

This study evaluates the performance of RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model Version 3) in simulating the East Asian rainfall, with emphasis on the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China during the 1998–2002 summer (June–August) seasons. The evaluation focuses on the sensitivity of the choice of cumulus parameterizations and model domain. With the right setup, the spatial and temporal evolution of diurnal rainfall over Southeast China, which has not been well simulated by past studies, can be accurately simulated by RegCM3. Results show that the Emanuel cumulus scheme has a more realistic simulation of summer mean rainfall in East Asia, while the GFC (Grell scheme with the Frisch-Chappell convective closure assumption) scheme is better in simulating the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China. The better performance of these two schemes [relative to the other two schemes in RegCM3: the Kuo scheme and the GAS (Grell scheme with the Arakawa–Schubert closure assumption) scheme] can be attributed to the reasonable reproduction of the major formation mechanism of rainfall—the moisture flux convergence—over Southeast China. Furthermore, when the simulation domain covers the entire Tibetan Plateau, the diurnal variations of rainfall over Southeast China are found to exhibit a noticeable improvement without changes in the physics schemes.

Role of the strengthened El Nino teleconnection in the May 2015 floods over the southern Great Plains

The climate anomalies leading to the May 2015 floods in Texas and Oklahoma were analyzed in the context of El Nino teleconnection in a warmer climate. A developing El Nino tends to increase late-spring precipitation in the southern Great Plains, and this effect has intensified since 1980. Anthropogenic global warming contributed to the physical processes that caused the persistent precipitation in May 2015: Warming in the tropical Pacific acted to strengthen the teleconnection toward North America, modification of zonal wave 5 circulation that deepened the stationary trough west of Texas, and enhanced Great Plains low-level southerlies increasing moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Attribution analysis using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 single-forcing experiments and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project indicated a significant increase in the El Nino-induced precipitation anomalies over Texas and Oklahoma when increases in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases were taken into account.

Impact of land–sea breezes at different scales on the diurnal rainfall in Taiwan

The formation mechanism of diurnal rainfall in Taiwan is commonly recognized as a result of local forcings involving solar thermal heating and island-scale land–sea breeze (LSB) interacting with orography. This study found that the diurnal variation of the large-scale circulation over the East Asia-Western North Pacific (EAWNP) modulates considerably the diurnal rainfall in Taiwan. It is shown that the interaction between the two LSB systems—the island-scale LSB and the large-scale LSB over EAWNP—facilitates the formation of the early morning rainfall in western Taiwan, afternoon rainfall in central Taiwan, and nighttime rainfall in eastern Taiwan. Moreover, the post-1998 strengthening of a shallow, low-level southerly wind belt along the coast of Southeast China appears to intensify the diurnal rainfall activity in Taiwan. These findings reveal the role of the large-scale LSB and its long-term variation in the modulation of local diurnal rainfall.

Interannual variation of the late spring-early summer monsoon rainfall in the northern part of the South China Sea

AbstractMajor rainfall (≥60%) in the northern part of the South China Sea (between North Vietnam and Taiwan) during May–June (the mei-yu season—the first phase of the Southeast–East Asian monsoon) is produced by rainstorms originating over the northern Vietnam–southwestern China region and the northern part of the South China Sea. As observed in this study, the occurrence frequency of rainstorms and rainfall contribution by these rainstorms undergoes a distinct interannual variation, in-phase with those of monsoon westerlies in northern Indochina and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the NOAA Nino-3.4 region ΔSST (Nino-3.4). This in-phase relationship between monsoon westerlies and the ΔSST (Nino-3.4) anomalies is a result of the filling (deepening) of the subtropical Asian continental thermal low in response to the ΔSST (Nino-3.4) warm (cold) anomalies. Accompanied with this response is a slight southward (northward) shift of the North Pacific convergence zone (NPCZ), which extends from southe...

Seasonal variation of diurnal and semidiurnal rainfall over Southeast China

Diurnal (S1) and semidiurnal (S2) oscillations are major factors in determining the sub-daily variations of precipitation amount over Southeast China (PSEC). Most studies have examined the causes of S1(P)SEC and S2(P)SEC in the summer rainy season. However, causes of the seasonal changes in S1(P)SEC and S2(P)SEC have not been well documented. This study therefore examines possible mechanisms behind various precipitation types/cloud types because different types of precipitation/clouds control PSEC in different seasons. Results indicate that the variation of S1(P)SEC in winter, which tends to peak in the early morning, is mainly controlled by the high-relative-humidity-induced diurnal variation of non-showery precipitation/middle-level clouds. For S1(P)SEC in the other seasons, which tends to peak at the late afternoon, the moist-convection-induced diurnal variation of showery precipitation/low-level clouds is the main cause. Analyses also suggest that the phase of S2(P)SEC does not vary seasonally because both of its formation mechanisms—the semidiurnal variation of relative humidity and moist convection process—have similar phase evolution in all seasons. Seasonal changes in the water vapor supply to the maintenance of S1(P)SEC and S2(P)SEC are also discussed.

Impact of atmospheric changes on the low‐frequency variations of convective afternoon rainfall activity over Taiwan

This study examines the characteristics of low-frequency variations (defined as decadal-scale changes) in summer (June–August) convective afternoon rainfall (CAR) activity over Taiwan during 1961–2012. Using 3-hourly rain gauge data, it was found that (1) the CAR frequency exhibits a secular trend and the 10–20 decadal oscillation, (2) the trend in CAR frequency is positive in northern Taiwan but negative in central and southern Taiwan, and (3) the CAR rate increased over most of the lower plains but decreased over the mountain range of Taiwan. Diagnoses using the Japanese ReAnalysis (JRA-55) data and surface observations indicate that the low-frequency variations in CAR frequency are closely associated with the variations in monsoon southwesterly winds over the South China Sea and island-wide sea breeze convergence. The regional low-level circulation changes are linked to sea surface temperature anomalies over the Nino-4 region and its 10–20 year (quasi-decadal) oscillation. Regarding the processes that change the CAR rate in the trending patterns, it was found that increases in the moisture flux convergence and the moist (conditional) instability over the lower plains together explain the stronger CAR events in the long run.