Warren Hogan

A perspective on credit derivatives

This contribution offers an explanation of credit derivatives as a group of financial instruments having a common purpose being the managing of credit exposures, and thus credit or default risk. This paper explores the links between their economic and financial manifestations and the legal bases for their widespread application. To ensure an understanding of the purposes served by each of the main types of credit derivatives, a detailed scrutiny of individual instruments is undertaken. Issues relating law and economics to trading in this type of derivative are investigated, then pricing issues and empirical evidence are considered. A summary brings together the range of features bearing upon the effective development of a market in these financial instruments.

Time variation in the credit spreads on Australian Eurobonds

Traditional theories of credit spread behaviour predict that changes in the risk-free interest rate and asset factors are negatively correlated with changes in credit spreads on risky bonds. This study investigates this proposition in the Australian context by investigating the spread between three different rating classes and four maturities of Australian dollar Eurobonds and Australian government bonds. Using a daily data set that is divided into three subperiods between 2 January 1995 and 25 August 1998, the results confirm this empirical proposition. However, the relative weight of the explanatory variables changes with the subperiods investigated.

Measuring credit spreads: evidence from Australian Eurobonds

Recent theoretical models including the closed-form valuation model of Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) predict that credit spreads are driven by both an asset and interest rate factor. In empirical studies the credit spread may be expressed as either the difference between, or ratio of, the risky bond to a riskless bond. Using a daily sample of non-callable Australian dollar denominated Eurobonds it is found, consistent with theory, that changes in credit spreads are negatively related to both changes in the return on All Ordinaries stock Index and changes in the Government bond yield. Interestingly, the ratio measure – termed a relative credit spread – tends to be statistically more significant than the alternate measure based upon the difference – termed an actual credit spread. However, it is shown that this result is spurious and due to the way in which relative credit spreads are constructed. Noting Duffees (1998) warning against using callable bonds, the use of only non-callable Eurobonds provides a cleaner result when compared with tests conducted by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995).

The dynamics of Australian dollar bonds with different credit qualities

Abstract We investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship between Australian dollar bonds of different credit quality. Contrary to the expectations hypothesis, we find the yields of Eurobonds are not cointegrated with the equivalent maturity Government bond. Nevertheless, the results suggest that the yields of the different risk classes of Eurobonds are cointegrated with one another, with the higher-rated bond yields tending to lead the lower-rated yields. The paper also demonstrates that the cointegration relationship can be utilised in modelling the dynamics of the spread changes between Eurobonds and Government bonds.

Decomposing Intraday Dependence in Currency Markets: Evidence from the Aud/Usd Spot Market

The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard deviation, or both of these simultaneously, values for the range, standard deviation and local Hurst exponent are recorded and analyzed separately. To illustrate this approach, a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar provides evidence of the returns distribution across the 24-hour trading ‘day’, with time-varying dependence and volatility clearly aligning with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German Eurobonds

We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment-grade Deutschemark-denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994-1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two-factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity, indicate strong persistence in spread changes. Consistent with theory and previous findings, changes in spreads are significantly negatively related to the term-structure level while, contrary to theory, the proxy for asset value does not yield a significant negative contribution. We even find a significant positive relation for Eurobonds with long maturity. Tentative interpretations are portfolio-rebalancing activities or differing risk factor sensitivities on short- vs. long-maturity bonds. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2005

Scaling the Volatility of Credit Spreads: Evidence from Australian Dollar Eurobonds

Many asset pricing models require an annualised risk coefficient which is determined by the linear rescaling of the variance from other time intervals. However, this approach may not be appropriate for dependent time series. This paper investigates the scaling relationships for daily credit spreads, from January 1986 to May 1998, between AAA, AA and A rated Australian dollar denominated Eurobonds with maturities of 2, 5, 7 and 10 years. We find evidence of a term structure and co-movement in credit spreads by maturity. We also find the credit spread return series were time variant, leptokurtic, autocorrelated and exhibited different degrees of negative long-term dependence. The series all displayed similar scaling properties with the estimated standard deviation, based upon a scaling at the square root of time, significantly underestimating the actual level of risk predicted from a normal distribution. These results have implications for credit spread derivatives.

Foreign Bond Markets and Financial Market Development: International Perspectives

The domestic bond markets of the Asia and Pacific region have grown considerably since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, although they remain undeveloped relative to the regions weight in the world economy. This paper proposes that in order to encourage further development of these markets, regulators should make them more accessible to foreign borrowers. To that end we offer insights into the nature and mechanics of foreign bond issuance by investigating the key characteristics of 3,132 foreign bonds issued in 14 countries (other than the United States) between July 1928 and June 2009. We found that the foreign borrowers that tap domestic markets are overwhelmingly of high credit quality and comprise sovereigns, supranationals, and major financial institutions. There is a preference for simple fixed-rate payment structures, which can then be swapped into the currency and coupon type of choice using currency and interest rate derivatives. On the whole, the long-term viability of foreign bond markets appears linked to the presence of highly liquid foreign exchange and derivatives markets that facilitate risk management and transformation, enabling regulation that facilitates cooperation with market participants, the presence of benchmark issues, and competitive pricing between alternate market segments.

Expectations and Liquidity in Yen Bond Markets

The relationship between daily yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs), and high grade (AA and AAA) yen eurobonds is investigated. We find the cointegration vector differs slightly from the expected order predicted by the expectations hypothesis and attribute this to differing degrees of liquidity in the eurobond and JGB markets. We conclude that the concentration of new Japanese government issues in maturities of five to ten years, combined with the practice by the authorities of holding a significant amount of outstanding bonds, has distorted the transmission process between different risk classes of bonds. An example of the dynamics of the credit spread on the ten-year AA eurobond is provided.

THE TIME-VARYING BEHAVIOUR OF CREDIT SPREADS ON YEN EUROBONDS

This study develops an equilibrium model of credit spreads on Japanese yen Eurobonds based on a model proposed by Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin (2001). We find the asset factor, as proxied by the change in the stock market index, has only a limited effect, while the interest rate factor has the over-riding influence. There is also evidence that currency volatility and changes in the term structure occasionally have an effect on spread behaviour. Analysis over several subperiods, based around key economic events, demonstrates that the relative weight of these explanatory variables change over time.