Warren L. Prell

Evolution of Asian monsoons and phased uplift of the Himalaya–Tibetan plateau since Late Miocene times

The climates of Asia are affected significantly by the extent and height of the Himalayan mountains and the Tibetan plateau. Uplift of this region began about 50 Myr ago, and further significant increases in altitude of the Tibetan plateau are thought to have occurred about 10–8 Myr ago, or more recently. However, the climatic consequences of this uplift remain unclear. Here we use records of aeolian sediments from China and marine sediments from the Indian and North Pacific oceans to identify three stages of evolution of Asian climates: first, enhanced aridity in the Asian interior and onset of the Indian and east Asian monsoons, about 9–8 Myr ago; next, continued intensification of the east Asian summer and winter monsoons, together with increased dust transport to the North Pacific Ocean, about 3.6–2.6 Myr ago; and last, increased variability and possible weakening of the Indian and east Asian summer monsoons and continued strengthening of the east Asian winter monsoon since about 2.6 Myr ago. The results of a numerical climate-model experiment, using idealized stepwise increases of mountain–plateau elevation, support the argument that the stages in evolution of Asian monsoons are linked to phases of Himalaya–Tibetan plateau uplift and to Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

On the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles 1. Linear Responses to Milankovitch Forcing

Time series of ocean properties provide a measure of global ice volume and monitor key features of the wind-driven and density-driven circulations over the past 400,000 years. Cycles with periods near 23,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years dominate this climatic narrative. When the narrative is examined in a geographic array of time series, the phase of each climatic oscillation is seen to progress through the system in essentially the same geographic sequence in all three cycles. We argue that the 23,000- and 41,000-year cycles of glaciation are continuous, linear responses to orbitally driven changes in the Arctic radiation budget; and we use the phase progression in each climatic cycle to identify the main pathways along which the initial, local responses to radiation are propagated by the atmosphere and ocean. Early in this progression, deep waters of the Southern Ocean appear to act as a carbon trap. To stimulate new observations and modeling efforts, we offer a process model that gives a synoptic view of climate at the four end-member states needed to describe the systems evolution, and we propose a dynamic system model that explains the phase progression along causal pathways by specifying inertial constants in a chain of four subsystems. “Solutions to problems involving systems of such complexity are not born full grown like Athena from the head of Zeus. Rather they evolve slowly, in stages, each of which requires a pause to examine data at great lengths in order to guarantee a sure footing and to properly choose the next step.” —Victor P. Starr

On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles 2. The 100,000‐year cycle

Climate over the past million years has been dominated by glaciation cycles with periods near 23,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years. In a linear version of the Milankovitch theory, the two shorter cycles can be explained as responses to insolation cycles driven by precession and obliquity. But the 100,000-year radiation cycle (arising from eccentricity variation) is much too small in amplitude and too late in phase to produce the corresponding climate cycle by direct forcing. We present phase observations showing that the geographic progression of local responses over the 100,000-year cycle is similar to the progression in the other two cycles, implying that a similar set of internal climatic mechanisms operates in all three. But the phase sequence in the 100,000-year cycle requires a source of climatic inertia having a time constant (similar to 15,000 years) much larger than the other cycles (similar to 5,000 years). Our conceptual model identifies massive northern hemisphere ice sheets as this larger inertial source. When these ice sheets, forced by precession and obliquity, exceed a critical size, they cease responding as linear Milankovitch slaves and drive atmospheric and oceanic responses that mimic the externally forced responses. In our model, the coupled system acts as a nonlinear amplifier that is particularly sensitive to eccentricity-driven modulations in the 23,000-year sea level cycle. During an interval when sea level is forced upward from a major low stand by a Milankovitch response acting either alone or in combination with an internally driven, higher-frequency process, ice sheets grounded on continental shelves become unstable, mass wasting accelerates, and the resulting deglaciation sets the phase of one wave in the train of 100,000-year oscillations. Whether a glacier or ice sheet influences the climate depends very much on the scale....The interesting aspect is that an effect on the local climate can still make an ice mass grow larger and larger, thereby gradually increasing its radius of influence.

The southwest Indian Monsoon over the last 18 000 years

Previously published results suggest that the strength of the SW Indian Monsoon can vary significantly on century- to millenium time scales, an observation that has important implications for assessments of future climate and hydrologic change over densely populated portions of Asia. We present new, well-dated, multi-proxy records of past monsoon variation from three separate Arabian Sea sediment cores that span the last glacial maximum to late-Holocene. To a large extent, these records confirm earlier published suggestions that the monsoon strengthened in a series of abrupt events over the last deglaciation. However, our data provide a somewhat refined picture of when these events took place, and suggest the primacy of two abrupt increases in monsoon intensity, one between 13 and 12.5 ka, and the other between 10 and 9.5 ka. This conclusion is supported by the comparisons between our new marine data and published paleoclimatic records throughout the African-Asian monsoon region. The comparison of data sets further supports the assertion that maximum monsoon intensity lagged peak insolation forcing by about 3000 years, and extended from about 9.5 to 5.5 ka. The episodes of rapid monsoon intensification coincided with major shifts in North Atlantic-European surface temperatures and ice-sheet extent. This coincidence, coupled with new climate model experiments, suggests that the large land-sea thermal gradient needed to drive strong monsoons developed only after glacial conditions upstream of, and on, the Tibetan Plateau receded (cold North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, European ice-sheets, and extensive Asian snow cover). It is likely that abrupt changes in seasonal soil hydrology were as important to past monsoon forcing as were abrupt snow-related changes in regional albedo. Our analysis suggests that the monsoon responded more linearly to insolation forcing after the disappearance of glacial boundary conditions, decreasing gradually after about 6 ka. Our data also support the possibility that significant century-scale decreases in monsoon intensity took place during the early to mid-Holocene period of enhanced monsoon strength, further highlighting the need to understand paleomonsoon dynamics before accurate assessments of future monsoon strength can be made.

The last interglacial ocean

The final effort of the CLIMAP project was a study of the last interglaciation, a time of minimum ice volume some 122,000 yr ago coincident with the Substage 5e oxygen isotopic minimum. Based on detailed oxygen isotope analyses and biotic census counts in 52 cores across the world ocean, last interglacial sea-surface temperatures (SST) were compared with those today. There are small SST departures in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (warmer) and the Gulf of Mexico (cooler). The eastern boundary currents of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans are marked by large SST anomalies in individual cores, but their interpretations are precluded by no-analog problems and by discordancies among estimates from different biotic groups. In general, the last interglacial ocean was not significantly different from the modern ocean. The relative sequencing of ice decay versus oceanic warming on the Stage 6/5 oxygen isotopic transition and of ice growth versus oceanic cooling on the Stage 5e/5d transition was also studied. In most of the Southern Hemisphere, the oceanic response marked by the biotic census counts preceded (led) the global ice-volume response marked by the oxygen-isotope signal by several thousand years. The reverse pattern is evident in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, where the oceanic response lagged that of global ice volume by several thousand years. As a result, the very warm temperatures associated with the last interglaciation were regionally diachronous by several thousand years. These regional lead-lag relationships agree with those observed on other transitions and in long-term phase relationships; they cannot be explained simply as artifacts of bioturbational translations of the original signals.

13C Record of benthic foraminifera in the last interglacial ocean: Implications for the carbon cycle and the global deep water circulation

The 13C/12C ratios of Upper Holocene benthic foraminiferal tests (genera Cibicides and Uvigerina) of deep sea cores from the various world ocean basins have been compared with those of the modern total carbon dioxide (TCO2) measured during the GEOSECS program. The δ13C difference between benthic foraminifera and TCO2 is 0.07 ± 0.04‰ for Cibicides and −0.83 ± 0.07‰ for Uvigerina at the 95% confidence level. δ13C analyses of the benthic foraminifera that lived during the last interglaciation (isotopic substage 5e, about 120,000 yr ago) show that the bulk of the TCO2 in the world ocean had a δ13C value 0.15 ± 0.12‰ lower than the modern one at the 95% confidence level, reflecting a depletion, compared to the present value, of the global organic carbon reservoir. Regional differences in δ13C between the various oceanic basins are explained by a pattern of deep water circulation different from the modern one: the Antarctic Bottom Water production was higher than today during the last interglaciation, but the eastward transport in the Circumpolar Deep Water was lower.

Surface circulation of the Indian Ocean during the last glacial maximum, approximately 18,000 yr B.P.

A seasonal reconstruction of the Indian Ocean during the last glacial maximum (∼18,000 yr B.P.) reveals that its surface circulation and sea surface temperature patterns were significantly different from the modern Indian Ocean. This reconstruction is based on the planktonic foraminiferal biogeography and estimated sea surface temperatures in 42 Indian Ocean samples. Compared to modern conditions, the polar front was 5° to 10° latitude further north during the last glacial maximum; the Subtropical Convergence was 2° to 5° latitude further north. The West Australian Current was more intense as part of the West Wind Drift was deflected northward along the coast of Australia. The Agulhas Current was cooler and weaker during the summer and more saline and subtropical during the winter. In general, the low latitudes underwent little temperature change. The western Arabian Sea was warmer which implies less upwelling and a weaker Southwest Monsoon. On the average, the Indian Ocean was 1.9°C cooler in February and 1.7°C cooler in August during the last glacial maximum.

Late Quaternary Surface Circulation of the Southern Indian Ocean and its Relationship to Orbital Variations

The paleoceanographic history of the Southern Indian Ocean is reflected by the movement of two prominent dynamical features of the Southern Ocean: the Subtropical Convergence (STC) and the Antarctic Polar Front (APF). These fronts, and their associated sea surface temperature (SST) signatures, are well delineated by planktonic foraminiferal faunas in surface sediments of the southern Indian Ocean. Using a transect of piston cores between 42°S and 48°S at about 90°E, we have reconstructed the latitudinal distribution of planktonic foraminiferal faunas over the past 500,000 years. These faunal variations imply changes in the paleolatitudes of the STC and APF and the surface isotherms associated with the fronts. Stratigraphic and chronologic control is provided by δ18O, %CaCO3, and biostratigraphy. Our reconstruction indicates that the STC has been equatorward of its present position (∼40°S) for most of the past 500,000 years and has been poleward of that position for only four relatively brief (∼10,000‐year) intervals during that time. We estimate six equatorward excursions of the APF over the same period, with a maximum total range of about six degrees of latitude. The average paleo‐position of the APF is about 46°S, about 4°north of its present position (∼50°S). Ice‐rafted debris, another indicator of APF position, occurs as far north as 45°S during glacial intervals. Latitudinal gradients in SST show little glacial‐interglacial change between 42° and 48°S, suggesting that surface isotherms were displaced uniformly or that compression of SST gradients occurred outside the transect. Time series analyses of the SST records in this transect reveal statistically significant concentrations of variance in the primary orbital frequency bands. SST variations in these bands are coherent with orbital variations and with changes in δ18O. SST in the subantarctic Indian Ocean slightly precedes changes in δ18O occurring in the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands, and lag orbital variations in the obliquity and precession bands. These results place important constraints on possible mechanisms of interhemispheric climatic timing. The similarities in temporal patterns and timing among Southern Ocean SST, atmospheric CO2, and relative flux of North Atlantic Deep Water implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide and deep water circulation as possible interhemispheric pacing mechanisms. Copyright 1992 by the American Geophysical Union.

Nonstationary Phase of the Plio-Pleistocene Asian Monsoon

Paleoclimate records indicate that the strength of the Asian summer monsoon is sensitive to orbital forcing at the obliquity and precession periods (41,000 and 23,000 years, respectively) and the extent of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Over the past 2.6 million years, the timing (phase) of strong monsoons has changed by ∼83 degrees in the precession and ∼124 degrees in the obliquity bands relative to the phase of maximum global ice volume (inferred from the marine oxygen isotope record). These results suggest that one or both of these systems is nonstationary relative to orbital forcing.

Environmental controls on the geographic distribution of zooplankton diversity

Proposed explanations for the geographic distribution of zooplankton diversity include control of diversity by geographic variation in: physical and chemical properties of the near-surface ocean; the surface area of biotic provinces; energy availability; rates of evolution and extinction; and primary productivity. None of these explanations has been quantitatively tested on a basin-wide scale. Here we used assemblages of planktic foraminifera from surface sediments to test these hypotheses. Our analysis shows that sea-surface temperature measured by satellite explains nearly 90% of the geographic variation in planktic foraminiferal diversity throughout the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures at depths of 50, 100 and 150 m (ref. 9) are highly correlated to sea-surface temperature and explain the diversity pattern nearly as well. These findings indicate that geographic variation in zooplankton diversity may be directly controlled by the physical structure of the near-surface ocean. Furthermore, our results show that planktic foraminiferal diversity does not strictly adhere to the model of continually decreasing diversity from equator to pole. Instead, planktic foraminiferal diversity peaks in the middle latitudes in all oceans.