Wataru Naito

Application of an ecosystem model for aquatic ecological risk assessment of chemicals for a Japanese lake

The Lake Suwa version of the comprehensive aquatic systems model (CASM-SUWA) was developed using field data from Lake Suwa and evaluated to examine the utility of CASM-SUWA for assessing the ecological risk of chemicals for aquatic ecosystems. The calibration of the parameters for the model provided that the established reference model simulation could reproduce complex seasonal biomass behavior of populations that were not significantly different from the general seasonal pattern for the Lake Suwa ecosystem. The sensitivity analyses revealed the potential importance of indirect effects and demonstrated that the parameter values of all the trophic levels were important in determining the biomass of each trophic level in the model. The risk estimation of linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS) demonstrated that the model estimated the risks of direct toxic effects on each population and the indirect ecological effects that propagate through the food-web in the model ecosystem. The CASM-SUWA-derived benchmark levels were approximately one order of magnitude less than the field-derived NOECs in literature. The analyses of the comparison implied that the model could provide a good basis in determining an ecological protective level of a chemical of concern in aquatic ecosystem. This modeling study demonstrated that the model can be used to provide additional information for the decision-making process in the management of the aquatic ecological risk of chemicals.

Dynamics of PCDDs/DFs and coplanar-PCBs in an aquatic food chain of Tokyo Bay.

Concentrations and accumulation profiles of PCDDs/DFs and coplanar-PCBs (co-PCBs) in aquatic biota (e.g., plankton, shellfish, benthic invertebrate, and fish) and sediment from Tokyo Bay were examined to elucidate the relationship between bioaccumulation and trophic level in the food web as determined by the stable nitrogen isotope analysis. Bioaccumulation patterns of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs varied greatly among congeners. Accumulation patterns of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs are not solely explained by their physicochemical properties. Biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) for co-PCBs in biota from Tokyo Bay were significantly greater than those of PCDDs/DFs. Furthermore, the slopes of the plots of delta15N and BSAF values and water solubility of 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs were highly correlated. The results of our study would provide the valuable information to understand the accumulation properties of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs that can be used as a scientific basis to determine the sediment quality criteria of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs.

Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the US Geological Survey (USA), HDR|HydroQual (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (United Kingdom) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided in the present study. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by the Windermere humic aqueous model [WHAM]; specific or nonspecific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single vs multiple types of binding sites on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong interrelationships among the model parameters (binding constants, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

Evaluation of an ecosystem model in ecological risk assessment of chemicals

We used a Lake Suwa version of Comprehensive Aquatic Systems Model (CASM_SUWA) to demonstrate the risk estimation of 10 different chemicals and examined the applicability and reliability of the model in ecological risk assessment by qualitatively and quantitatively comparing with the results of studies on multiple species using mesocosm tests. The qualitative comparison of the model results with those of the reported mesocosm tests indicated that some evidence observed in mesocosm studies supported the indirect effects predicted from simulation using the model. The comparison of the concentration levels at which 20% biomass reduction (BR20) in the most sensitive population estimated from the model with the no-observed effect concentration values derived from multiple species mesocosm tests (MS-NOEC) suggested that both data were related to each other and the model can be used to help in the determination of an ecological acceptable level of chemicals in aquatic environments. The analysis of the potential of indirect effects of a chemical for fish population indicated that the magnitude of the potential of indirect effects was quantified based on the ratio of BR50 to LC50 for fish population.

Testing an application of a biotic ligand model to predict acute toxicity of metal mixtures to rainbow trout

The authors tested the applicability of a previously developed biotic ligand model (BLM) to predict acute toxicity of single metals and metal mixtures (cadmium, lead, and zinc) to rainbow trout fry (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from a single available dataset. The BLM used in the present study hypothesizes that metals inhibit an essential cation (calcium) and organisms die as a result of its deficiency, leading to an assumption that the proportion of metal-binding ligand (f) is responsible for the toxic effects of metals on the survival of rainbow trout. The f value is a function of free-ion concentrations of metals computed by a chemical speciation model, and the function has affinity constants as model parameters. First, the survival effects of single metals were statistically modeled separately (i.e., f-survival relationship) by using the generalized linear mixed model with binomial distribution. The modeled responses of survival rates to f overlapped reasonably irrespective of metals tested, supporting the theoretical prediction from the BLM that f-survival relationships are comparable regardless of metal species. The authors thus developed the generalized linear mixed model based on all data pooled across the single-metal tests. The best-fitted model well predicted the survival responses observed in mixture tests (r = 0.97), providing support for the applicability of the BLM to predict effects of metal mixtures.

A GIS-based evaluation of the effect of decontamination on effective doses due to long-term external exposures in Fukushima.

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination, there has been almost no quantitative discussion on how much it would reduce the long-term external radiation exposure in the Evacuation Zone and Planned Evacuation Zone (restricted zone) in Fukushima. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of decontamination and return options and to identify important parameters for estimating the long-term cumulated effective dose (CED) during 15, 30 and 70 year period using data on land-use, population and decontamination in the restricted zone (about 1100 km(2)) in Fukushima. Decontamination of the land is assumed to have a certain efficacy in terms of the reduction of CED. The EeCC (external exposure conversion coefficient) is the parameter having the greatest effect on the percentage of area having CED during the 30 years above 100 m Sv after decontamination, ranging from 13% (EeCC=0.2) to 55% (EeCC=0.6). Therefore, we recommend a detailed investigation of the EeCC in Japan.

Cost and Effectiveness of Decontamination Strategies in Radiation Contaminated Areas in Fukushima in Regard to External Radiation Dose

The objective of the present study is to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of decontamination strategies in the special decontamination areas in Fukushima in regard to external radiation dose. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to relate the predicted external dose in the affected areas to the number of potential inhabitants and the land use in the areas. A comprehensive review of the costs of various decontamination methods was conducted as part of the analysis. The results indicate that aerial decontamination in the special decontamination areas in Fukushima would be effective for reducing the air dose rate to the target level in a short period of time in some but not all of the areas. In a standard scenario, analysis of cost and effectiveness suggests that decontamination costs for agricultural areas account for approximately 80% of the total decontamination cost, of which approximately 60% is associated with storage. In addition, the costs of decontamination per person per unit area are estimated to vary greatly. Appropriate selection of decontamination methods may significantly decrease decontamination costs, allowing more meaningful decontamination in terms of the limited budget. Our analysis can help in examining the prioritization of decontamination areas from the viewpoints of cost and effectiveness in reducing the external dose. Decontamination strategies should be determined according to air dose rates and future land-use plans.

A Novel Approach to Determining a Population-Level Threshold in Ecological Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Zinc

ABSTRACT A novel approach to population-level assessment was applied in order to demonstrate its utility in estimating and managing the risk of zinc in a water environment. Much attention has been paid to population-level risk assessment, but there have been no attempts to determine a “safe” population-level concentration as an environmental criterion. Based on the published results of toxicity tests for various species, we first theoretically derived a threshold concentration at which a population size is unchanged due to the adverse effects of zinc exposure. To derive a zinc concentration that will protect populations in natural environments, we adopted the concept of species sensitivity distribution. Assuming the threshold concentrations of a set of species are log-normally distributed, we calculated the 95% protection level of zinc (PHC5 :population-level hazardous concentration of 5% of species), which is 107 μg/L. Meanwhile, the 95% protection criterion (HC5) based on conventional individual-level chronic toxicity, was calculated to be 14.6 μg/L. The environmentally “safe” concentration for a population-level endpoint is about 7 times greater than that for an individual-level endpoint. The proposed method provides guidance for a pragmatic approach to population-level ecological risk assessment and the management of chemicals.

Evaluation of trace metals bioavailability in Japanese river waters using DGT and a chemical equilibrium model

To develop efficient and effective methods of assessing and managing the risk posed by metals to aquatic life, it is important to determine the effects of water chemistry on the bioavailability of metals in surface water. In this study, we employed the diffusive gradients in thin-films (DGT) to determine the bioavailability of metals (Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb) in Japanese water systems. The DGT results were compared with a chemical equilibrium model (WHAM 7.0) calculation to examine its robustness and utility to predict dynamic metal speciation. The DGT measurements showed that biologically available fractions of metals in the rivers impacted by mine drainage and metal industries were relatively high compared with those in urban rivers. Comparison between the DGT results and the model calculation indicated good agreement for Zn. The model calculation concentrations for Ni and Cu were higher than the DGT concentrations at most sites. As for Pb, the model calculation depended on whether the precipitated iron(III) hydroxide or precipitated aluminum(III) hydroxide was assumed to have an active surface. Our results suggest that the use of WHAM 7.0 combined with the DGT method can predict bioavailable concentrations of most metals (except for Pb) with reasonable accuracy.

Assessing ecological risk of zinc in Japan using organism- and population-level species sensitivity distributions.

In Japan, the Environmental Quality Standard for zinc, established in 2003, was the first standard for the protection of aquatic species. To achieve this environmental criterion, the National Effluent Standard was lowered from 5 mgL(-1) to 2 mgL(-1) in 2006. However, some industries were permitted to apply a provisional effluent standard until 2011, when the provisional standard will revert to the national standard. Therefore, discussion about the environmental management of and countermeasures for the risk of zinc continues in Japan. The aim of this paper is to present the current status of the risk of zinc. Using long-term monitoring data for zinc from more than 3000 monitoring sites in Japan, both freshwater and marine, we found that the geometric mean concentration of zinc at freshwater sites was about 10.8 microgL(-1) and that the annual mean concentrations have been generally decreasing. We identified sites where zinc concentrations were high, and we also identified the most likely sources of zinc responsible for the high concentrations. The ecological risk of zinc was estimated at the conventional individual level and at the population level. Individual-level risk was detected at about 20% of freshwater sites, and population-level risk at about 2%. The risks were lower in more recent years; however, they remain at unacceptable levels. Our results show the necessity of risk reduction strategies. We propose a new approach for risk management and countermeasures that consider both individual- and population-level risks.