Wei Nai

Contract strategy design in early stage of implementing pay-how-you-drive policy with traditional commercial vehicle insurance coexisted

Pay-how-you-drive (PHYD), which is a driving behavior related premium rate setting method in usage based insurance (UBI), has drawn widespread attention in commercial vehicle insurance as well as internet-of-vehicle (IoV) industry nowadays, for it can not only help insurance companies to fully master the driving information of all insured vehicles, but can help to establish a corresponding premium rate setting strategy according to that as well. However, as the implementation of PHYD may undergo a complicated process, a stage with PHYD contract and traditional contract coexisted in vehicle insurance market will surely be went through, therefore, certain contract strategy should be given so as to eliminate the potential risk caused by information asymmetry which might be used to exploit an advantage by the speculative contract holders. In this paper, an “either-or” contract implementing strategy is proposed, and via theoretical analysis, its capabilities of providing the maximum utility for insured vehicles and ensuring reliable profit for insurance companies are demonstrated.

Analysis of passenger average travel time for Shanghai Metro Line 16 with multi mode trains mixed running in different ratio

Passenger average travel time is an important parameter which reflects the operation efficiency of metro lines, especially those regional ones. The on-building Shanghai Metro Line 16 is the first typical regional metro line with three kinds of trains including non-stop, part-stop and regular train running in it. As different mixed running ratio would cause varied passenger average travel time and different transport capacity, it is important to analyze passenger average travel time between different origin-destination (OD) stations so as to understand the capacity of each part-route and thus formulate a dynamic operation strategy for this metro line. In this paper, simulation has been done via software Train Plan Maker (TPM) and offline MATLAB analysis program to analyze passenger average travel time between different OD stations with those three mode trains set at different mixed running ratios, and future operation suggestion for both short term and long term has been made according to not only the simulation results but the geography features along this metro line as well.

A Novel Set of Driving Style Risk Evaluation Index System for UBI-Based Differentiated Commercial Vehicle Insurance in China

Usage based insurance (UBI) for vehicles, or sometimes pay-how-you-drive (PHYD) as it is usually called, which fuses information and telecommunication technologies, can not only enhance the accuracy of underwriting, solve the severe homogeneity problem in vehicle insurance products for insurance companies, but can eliminate the cross-subsidies from vehicles of low risk to those of higher risk, as well. However, till now, researches of driving style evaluation method are mainly for fuel consumption control or to analyze road traffic conditions. It is hard to find reports on dedicated methods for UBI premium actuary purposes. Consider that China is a country which has a huge territory with different city landforms and traffic situations. There is an urgent requirement to establish a theory structure based on UBI implementations, and to establish a theory system for autonomous driving style evaluation methods. In this paper, a novel set of risk evaluation index systems of driving style for the UBI based differentiated commercial vehicle insurance for cities on the plains in China has been proposed. d via a real vehicle driving example analysis, the objectiveness and effectiveness the proposed dynamic driving evaluation index system has been proved.

Analysis of train and station use efficiency for Shanghai Metro Line 16 with multi mode trains mixed running in different ratio

The on-building Shanghai Metro Line 16 is a typical regional metro line which connects downtown area and a satellite city located in outer suburb. It is long and has an uneven and ever-changing passenger flow distribution as the city develops. Three kinds of trains including non-stop, part-stop and regular trains have been planned mixed running in it, so the design and efficiency analysis of operation schemes is more complex compared with urban metro lines. In this paper, Train Plan Maker (TPM) has been used as simulation tool to analyze train and station use efficiency problems including train and vehicle use quantities, the optimal takeover station and the use of switchback lanes under the condition of those three kinds of trains mixed running in different ratios. In view of the geography feature and future passenger flow changing trend, the optimal dynamic operation organization graph for this line during different city developing periods have been drawn according to the simulation results.

A train positioning mechanism for medium-low speed maglev train based on parity check cross coding inductive loop wire

Medium-low speed maglev, as a form of urban rail transportation system, has already drawn a lot of attention from researchers and engineers for its advantages of low noise, strong climbing ability and flexible route planning. The train positioning system, as a matter of fact, is a very important part in operation and control system (OCS) of medium-low speed maglev transportation, for it collects real-time train position data, and helps OCS to send correct train dispatching order so as to ensure train operation safety. Cross coding inductive loop wire, which is suitable for the positioning of non-contact moving objects, has been recognized as one of the most promising train positioning method for medium-low speed maglev. However, as reports on cross coding inductive loop wire based train positioning method for medium-low speed maglev transportation system can hardly be found till now, the reliability of absolute address code reading for such positioning method still remains to be discussed and analyzed specifically. In this paper, a novel system design for cross coding inductive loop wire based train positioning system has been proposed, by adding a parity check cross inductive loop line, namely adding a new bit onto the original absolute address code sequence in each minimum positioning section, the reliability of address code reading for train positioning can be evidently enhanced.

Mathematical Verification for Transmission Performance of Centralized Lightwave WDM-RoF-PON with Quintuple Services Integrated in Each Wavelength Channel

Wavelength-division-multiplexing passive-optical-network (WDM-PON) has been recognized as a promising solution of the “last mile” access as well as multibroadband data services access for end users, and WDM-RoF-PON, which employs radio-over-fiber (RoF) technique in WDM-PON, is even a more attractive approach for future broadband fiber and wireless access for its strong availability of centralized multiservices transmission operation and its transparency for bandwidth and signal modulation formats. As for multiservices development in WDM-RoF-PON, various system designs have been reported and verified via simulation or experiment till now, and the scheme with multiservices transmitted in each single wavelength channel is believed as the one that has the highest bandwidth efficiency; however, the corresponding mathematical verification is still hard to be found in state-of-the-art literature. In this paper, system design and data transmission performance of a quintuple services integrated WDM-RoF-PON which jointly employs carrier multiplexing and orthogonal modulation techniques, have been theoretically analyzed and verified in detail; moreover, the system design has been duplicated and verified experimentally and the theory system of such WDM-RoF-PON scheme has thus been formed.

Modeling the Trend of Credit Card Usage Behavior for Different Age Groups Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis

Credit card holders from different age groups have different usage behaviors, so deeply investigating the credit card usage condition and properly modeling the usage trend of all customers in different age groups from time series data is meaningful for financial institutions as well as banks. Until now, related research in trend analysis of credit card usage has mostly been focused on specific group of people, such as the behavioral tendencies of the elderly or college students, or certain behaviors, such as the increasing number of cards owned and the rise in personal card debt or bankruptcy, in which the only analysis methods employed are simply enumerating or classifying raw data; thus, there is a lack of support in specific mathematical models based on usage behavioral time series data. Considering that few systematic modeling methods have been introduced, in this paper, a novel usage trend analysis method for credit card holders in different age groups based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) has been proposed, using the time series data from the Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (SCPC). The decomposition and reconstruction process in the method is proposed. The results show that the credit card usage frequency falls down from the age of 26 to the lowest point at around the age of 58 and then begins to increase again. At last, future work is discussed.

Reliability enhancing mechanism for train positioning based on cyclic check cross coding inductive loop wire for medium-low speed maglev

As a form of urban rail transit, medium-low speed maglev transportation system also requires safety-critical design in its operation and control system (OCS), for the OCS system relates to not only operation efficiency, but system reliability and safety as well. The train positioning system, which is the most important component in OCS, counts the real-time train position and helps OCS to give the correct, safe train dispatching order. Cross coding inductive loop wire has been recognized as one of the most suitable technique in solving the positioning problem of train which has no contact with the track, however, reports on the train positioning system based on cross coding inductive loop wire for medium-low speed maglev are still rare to be seen, especially reports on enhancing the positioning reliability. In this paper, a reliability enhancing mechanism for train positioning based on cyclic check cross coding inductive loop wire for medium-low speed maglev has been proposed, by adding check inductive loop bits according to cyclic check principle onto the original address code sequence in each minimum positioning section, the reliability of acquiring the correct original address code for the positioning system can be enhanced. Simulation has been done to verify such enhancement, and the comparison of positioning performance between parity check and cyclic check cross coding inductive loop wire has also been done in this paper.

An EMD–SARIMA-Based Modeling Approach for Air Traffic Forecasting

The ever-increasing air traffic demand in China has brought huge pressure on the planning and management of, and investment in, air terminals as well as airline companies. In this context, accurate and adequate short-term air traffic forecasting is essential for the operations of those entities. In consideration of such a problem, a hybrid air traffic forecasting model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been proposed in this paper. The model proposed decomposes the original time series into components at first, and models each component with the SARIMA forecasting model, then integrates all the models together to form the final combined forecast result. By using the monthly air cargo and passenger flow data from the years 2006 to 2014 available at the official website of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the effectiveness in forecasting of the model proposed has been demonstrated, and by a horizontal performance comparison between several other widely used forecasting models, the advantage of the proposed model has also been proved.

An intelligent ODN approach in WDM-PON based on optically controlled optical switch matrix

Study on wavelength division multiplexing passive optical network (WDM-PON) related topic has been getting great development during recent years. As an important part in WDM-PON system, optical distribution network (ODN) serves as a signal switching part which multiplex and de-multiplex optical signal between optical line terminal (OLT) and optical network units (ONUs). It is of no doubt that the comprehensive resource management in ODN, namely the intelligent ODN (iODN) design, can enhance the efficiency of optical path dispatching. Till now, even if the work orders in optical path dispatching can be sent automatically by telecommunication operators via resource management system to the network transmission department, the specific wiring work of patchcord for optical path distribution in ODN is still realized manually. Related researches of iODN have been mainly focused on adding different types of electronic tags in patchcords, which still gets manual work involved in wiring. Consider that the techniques in optically controlled optical switch matrix have already been proved to be mature, in this paper, an iODN design approach for WDM-PON has been proposed. By a thorough discussion of design scheme and the working principle via case study, the advantage of such approach has been demonstrated.