Weichen Tao

Diverse Influences of ENSO on the East Asian-Western Pacific Winter Climate Tied to Different ENSO Properties in CMIP5 Models

The influence of El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the East Asian‐western Pacific (EAWP) climate in boreal winter is investigated in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model results and then compared to that in the phase 3 (CMIP3) results. In particular, the role played by the differences among models in ENSO properties, including the amplitude and longitudinal extension of ENSO’s sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, is analyzed. Results show that an eastward shrinking of ENSO’s SST pattern leads to quite weak circulation and climatic responses over the EAWP regions in the models. On the contrary, a westward expansion of the SST pattern shifts the anomalous Walker circulation too far west. The resultant precipitation anomalies and lower-tropospheric atmospheric Rossby wave responses both extend unrealistically into the Indian Ocean, and the hemispheric asymmetry of the Rossby wave response is missing. All these features lead to unrealistic climatic impacts of ENSOover the EAWP regions.In contrasttothe abovetwocases,areasonablelongitudinalextensionof ENSO’s SST pattern corresponds to better ENSO teleconnections over the EAWP regions. Nevertheless, the atmospheric responses over the western Pacific are still located farther west than observed, implying a common bias of CMIP5 models. In this case, a larger amplitude of ENSO variability to some extent helps to reduce model biases and facilitate better climatic responses to ENSO in the EAWP regions. Compared with CMIP3 models, CMIP5 models perform better in representing ENSO’s impacts on the East Asian winter climate.

Changes in the characteristics of precipitation over northern Eurasia

Based on observed daily precipitation data, this study investigates the changes in the characteristics of precipitation over northern Eurasia during 1951–2010. Over the majority of northern Eurasia (east of 20° E), the light precipitation days and amounts decrease, but those for the moderate, heavy, and very heavy precipitation increase. Moreover, the precipitation intensity increases, which is responsible for the decrease in light precipitation days and amount and increase in relatively more intense precipitation since there is no significant trend in total precipitation days. However, the precipitation characteristics are opposite over the Iberian Peninsula. We find that the changes in precipitation characteristics are possibly due to the changes in static stability. In the majority region (the Iberian Peninsula), the static stability weakens (strengthens) during 1951–2010. When static stability weakens (strengths), the upward motion increases (decreases) and thus the precipitation intensity increases (decreases). Accordingly, the light precipitation events decrease (increase) and heavy precipitation events increase (decrease).

A study of biases in simulation of the Indian Ocean basin mode and its capacitor effect in CMIP3/CMIP5 models

Based on 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 3 (CMIP3) and 32 CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) models, a detailed diagnosis was carried out to understand what compose the biases in simulation of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and its capacitor effect. Cloud-radiation-SST (CRS) feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are the two major atmospheric processes for SST changes. Most CMIP models simulate a stronger CRS feedback and a weaker WES feedback. During boreal fall of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation developing year and the following spring, there are weak biases of suppressed rainfall anomalies over the Maritime Continent and anomalous anticyclone over South Indian Ocean. Most CMIP models simulate reasonable short wave radiation (SWR) and weaker latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. This leads to a weak bias of atmospheric processes. During winter, however, the rainfall anomalies are stronger due to west bias, and the anomalous anticyclone is comparable to observations. As such, most models simulate stronger SWR and reasonable LHF anomalies, leading to a strong bias of atmospheric processes. The thermocline feedback is stronger in most models. Though there is a deep bias of climatology thermocline, most models capture reasonable sea surface height-induced SST anomalies. Therefore, the effect of oceanic processes offset the weak bias of atmospheric processes in spring, and the tropical Indian Ocean warming persists into summer. However, anomalous northwest Pacific (NWP) anticyclone is weaker due to weak and west bias of the capacitor effect. The unrealistic western Pacific SST anomalies in models favor the westward extension of Rossby wave from the Pacific, weakening the effect of Kelvin wave from the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the western Pacific warming forces the NWP anticyclone move farther north than observations, suggesting a major forcing from the Pacific. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models simulate the feedbacks more realistically and display less diversity. Thus, the overall performance of CMIP5 models is better than that of CMIP3 models.

Different influences of two types of El Niños on the Indian Ocean SST variations

By comparing correlation of sea surface temperature (SST) and vertical circulation with canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki, we find that El Niño Modoki has an effect on the Indian Ocean different from traditional El Niño. There exists obvious Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) after canonical El Niño, while insignificant SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean after El Niño Modoki. Anomalous downdraft and updraft appear over the eastern and western Indian Ocean, respectively, during canonical El Niño, while anomalous updraft is weak over the Indian Ocean during El Niño Modoki. Besides, the strength of El Niño Modoki is slightly weaker than that of canonical El Niño. According to previous studies, two mechanisms can explain IOBM after canonical El Niño: tropospheric temperature (TT) mechanism and ocean dynamics. However, both of them do not exist during El Niño Modoki. Comparing with the complicated oceanic processes, it is convenient to verify the observed TT anomalies and test the possible mechanism using the simple model. Therefore, we pay more attention on the question why TT mechanism does not work during El Niño Modoki. Using a linear barocinic model (LBM), we demonstrate that the strength of SST anomalies and cold SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific have an influence on TT anomalies. Especially, cold SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific cancel the effects of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific on TT anomalies. It suggests that the SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific are important for the TT mechanism in two types of El Niño.

Diverse Relationship between ENSO and the Northwest Pacific Summer Climate among CMIP5 Models: Dependence on the ENSO Decay Pace

AbstractThe impacts of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the northwest Pacific (NWP) climate during ENSO decay summers are investigated based on the outputs of 37 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Large intermodel spread exists in the 37 state-of-the-art CGCMs in simulating the ENSO–NWP relationship. Eight high-skill and eight low-skill models are selected to explore how the bias arises. By comparing the results among high-skill models, low-skill models, and observations, the simulation skill of the ENSO–NWP relationship largely depends on whether the model can reasonably reproduce the ENSO decay pace. Warm SST anomaly bias in the equatorial western Pacific (EWP) is found to persist into the ENSO decay summer in the low-skill models, obstructing the formation of an anomalous anticyclone in the NWP. Further analysis shows that the warm EWP SST anomaly bias is possibly related to the excessive westward extension of cold tongue ...

Observed trends in light precipitation events over global land during 1961–2010

Based on daily station precipitation data, this study investigates the trends in light precipitation events (less than the 50th percentile) over global land during 1961–2010. It is found that the frequency of light precipitation events decreases over East China (EC) and northern Eurasia (NE) but increases over the United States of America (US), Australia (AU), and the Iberian Peninsula (IP). However, the trends in the intensity of light precipitation events are opposite to those in frequency. We find that the trends in light precipitation events are possibly associated with the changes in static stability. Over EC and NE (US, AU, and IP), the static stability weakens (strengthens) during 1961–2010. The weakening (strengthening) of static stability leads to increase (decrease) in precipitation intensity due to the enhancement (reduction) of upward motion; light (relatively heavier) precipitation events accordingly shift toward relatively heavier (light) precipitation, and the frequency of light precipitation events decreases (increases) consequently.

Asymmetry in summertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the northwest Pacific during decaying phase of El Niño and La Niña

The present study has revealed the asymmetric characteristics of summertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Indo-Pacific for El Niño and La Niña, as well as the possible mechanism. During the summer when El Niño has dissipated, there are basin-wide warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and cooling over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (CEP). The northwest Pacific (NWP) anticyclone is maintained by a combined effect of the TIO warming and equatorial CEP cooling. The impact of TIO warming is via the Kelvin wave-induced divergence mechanism, and the effect of CEP cooling is by stimulating a Rossby wave response to its northwest. Correspondingly, there are lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) over the TIO and divergence (convergence) over the NWP. The tropical atmospheric waves and large-scale circulation anomalies could couple together and maintain the anticyclone. However, for La Niña, there are easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific, and the anomalous NWP cyclone (NWPC) is weak and shifts northwestward, which are largely different from El Niño. The equatorial CEP cooling plays a dominant role in the maintenance of NWPC. The negative rainfall anomalies induced by CEP cooling force the anticyclonic wind anomalies over the WP as a Rossby wave response, which further cause the lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) over the MC and NWP. The resultant convergence leads to the enhanced convection there, inducing the NWPC as a Rossby wave response. Besides, the equatorial easterly wind anomalies trigger the upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave and maintain the CEP cooling as the Bjerknes feedback.

Origins of biases in CMIP5 models simulating northwest Pacific summertime atmospheric circulation anomalies during the decaying phase of ENSO

AbstractPresent study documents the biases of summertime northwest Pacific (NWP) atmospheric circulation anomalies during the decaying phase of ENSO and investigates their plausible reasons in 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. Based on an inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related 850hPa wind anomalies, the dominant modes of biases are extracted. The first EOF mode, explaining 21.3% of total inter-model variance, is characterized by a cyclone over the NWP, indicating a weaker NWP anticyclone. The cyclone appears to be a Rossby wave response to unrealistic equatorial western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies related to excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue in the models. On one hand, the cold SST biases increase the mean zonal SST gradient, which further intensifies warm zonal advection, favoring the development and persistence of equatorial WP SST anomalies. On the other hand, they reduce the anomalou...