Wenying Chen

The Role of Energy Service Demand in Carbon Mitigation: Combining Sector Analysis and China TIMES-ED Modelling

China’s primary energy consumption increased from 1.46 btce (billion tons of coal equivalent) in 2000 to 3.25 btce in 2010, greatly influenced by energy service demand growth. For example, crude steel production rose from 152 to 637 million tons, urban per capita floor space from 10 to 21.5 square meters, passenger transport turnover from 1226 to 2789 billion passenger km (pkm), and freight transport turnover from 443 to 14,184 billion tons km (tkm). This trend in energy service demand will be a critical factor in the level of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the future. In this chapter, multiple approaches, including the stock-based model, the saturation model, the discrete choices model, and so on, are used to project energy service demands from different demand sectors. The projections of energy service demand are used as inputs in the China TIMES-ED model to generate a reference scenario. Several carbon constraint scenarios have been designed to analyze the role of energy service demand reductions in industry, building and transport in the mitigation of carbon emissions in China.

The global impacts of US climate policy: a model simulation using GCAM-TU and MAGICC

ABSTRACT To assess the potential impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this study applied GCAM-TU (an updated version of the Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate global and regional emission pathways of energy-related CO2, which show that US emissions in 2100 would reduce to −2.4 Gt, −0.7 Gt and −0.2 Gt under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP3.7 and RCP4.5, respectively. Two unfavourable policy scenarios were designed, assuming a temporary delay and a complete stop for US mitigation actions after 2015. Simulations by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) indicate that the temperature increase by 2100 would rise by 0.081°C–0.161°C compared to the three original RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) if US emissions were kept at their 2015 levels until 2100. The probability of staying below 2°C would decrease by 6–9% even if the US resumes mitigation efforts for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target after 2025. It is estimated by GCAM-TU that, without US participation, increased reduction efforts are required for the rest of the world, including developing countries, in order to achieve the 2°C goal, resulting in 18% higher global cumulative mitigation costs from 2015 to 2100. Key policy insights President Trump’s climate policies, including planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cast a shadow on international climate actions, and would lower the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target. To meet the 2°C target without the US means increased reduction efforts and mitigation costs for the rest of the world, and considerable economic burdens for major developing areas. Active state-, city- and enterprise-level powers should be supported to keep the emission reduction gap from further widening even with reduced mitigation efforts from the US federal government.

Mitigation Challenges for China’s End-Use Sectors Under a Global Below Two Degree Target

To achieve a global below 2° climate target, every country would need to promote low-carbon transitions in their energy system. The biggest developing country, China, will face a particularly severe challenge to balance the increasing energy demand and the CO2 mitigation required by a below 2° target. Based on the energy system optimization results generated by a 14-region global TIMES model, this chapter aims to analyze the key challenges for China’s end-use sectors. Under the stringent CO2 emission constraint, significant improvements in energy efficiency and changes in energy structure resulting from electrification are expected to be achieved in the building, transportation and industry sectors. The penetration of high-efficient technologies requires the implementation of sufficient incentives like targeted policies or market mechanisms. Electrification needs the availability of abundant and stable electricity supply for end-use sectors since demand will increase rapidly.