Whitney Trainor-Guitton

Probabilistic geomechanical analysis of compartmentalization at the Snøhvit CO2 sequestration project

Pressure buildup caused by large-scale CO2 injection is a key concern during a carbon sequestration project. Large overpressures can compromise seal integrity, reactivate faults, and induce seismicity. Furthermore, pressure buildup is directly related with storage capacity. In this work we study the geomechanical response to CO2 injection at Snohvit, to understand the potential for fault reactivation, leakage, and contamination of the producing interval through bounding faults. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential contribution of a structural component to reservoir compartmentalization. We combine simplified analytical models, based on critically stressed fracture theory and a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, with a rigorous sensitivity analysis. Large stress uncertainties are present and reflected in the modeling results. It was found that under the most likely stress state the faults are fairly stable and caprock hydrofracturing would be expected before fault reactivation. In most of the analyzed cases, the critical pressure perturbation needed for reactivation is above 13 MPa, which was the limiting pressure increase before reaching the fracture pressure. Faults were found to be ~ 20% less stable when considering variations in SHmax orientation. In those cases, fault reactivation could be expected before caprock failure if injection continued. However, if the pressure increase did reach the critical values for seal failure estimated under the worst case (and least likely) stress state, no indication of such failure can be observed in the measured pressure response. Finally, the potential role of a structural component in the compartmentalization and fluid migration is difficult to assess due to the stress state uncertainty.

A methodology for quantifying the value of spatial information for dynamic Earth problems

We develop a methodology for assessing the value of information (VOI) from spatial data for groundwater decisions. Two sources of uncertainty are the focus of this VOI methodology: the spatial heterogeneity (how it influences the hydrogeologic response of interest) and the reliability of geophysical data (how they provide information about the spatial heterogeneity). An existing groundwater situation motivates and in turn determines the scope of this research. The objectives of this work are to (1) represent the uncertainty of the dynamic hydrogeologic response due to spatial heterogeneity, (2) provide a quantitative measure for how well a particular information reveals this heterogeneity (the uncertainty of the information) and (3) use both of these to propose a VOI workflow for spatial decisions and spatial data. The uncertainty of the hydraulic response is calculated using many Earth models that are consistent with the a priori geologic information. The information uncertainty is achieved quantitatively through Monte Carlo integration and geostatistical simulation. Two VOI results are calculated which demonstrate that a higher VOI occurs when the geophysical attribute (the data) better discriminates between geological indicators. Although geophysical data can only indirectly measure static properties that may influence the dynamic response, this transferable methodology provides a framework to estimate the value of spatial data given a particular decision scenario.

Mandate a man to fish: Technological advance in cooling systems at U.S. thermal electric plants

Steam-based electrical generating plants use large quantities of water for cooling. The potential environmental impacts of water cooling systems have resulted in their inclusion in the Clean Water Acts (CWA) Sections 316(a), related to thermal discharges and 316(b), related to cooling water intake. The CWA mandates a technological standard for water cooling systems. This analysis examines how the performance-adjusted rates of thermal emissions and water withdrawals for cooling units have changed over their vintage and how these rates of change were impacted by imposition of the CWA. Though technology standards are believed to hinder technological progress, results show that progress occurred for cooling systems installed after the CWA and no progress occurred previous to it.

A geophysical perspective of value of information: examples of spatial decisions for groundwater sustainability

The value of information (VOI) can be used to determine what kind of spatial information maybe relevant and useful for groundwater sustainability decisions. In this paper, the unique challenges for applying VoI to spatial information from geophysical data are described. The uncertainty regarding the spatial structure or continuity of the subsurface properties can be described with geostatistical sample models. Using these models, one can quantify the prior value given our present state of uncertainty and a set of decision alternatives and outcomes. Because geophysical techniques are a type of remote-sensing data, assuming “perfect” information is not realistic since the techniques usually are indirectly sampling the aquifer properties. Therefore, the focus of this paper is describing how the data reliability (the measure of imperfectness) can be quantified. One of the foremost considerations is the non-unique relationship between geological parameters (which determine groundwater flow) and geophysical observables (what determines the response of the technique). Another is to have the information in a form such that it is useful for spatial decisions. This will often require inversion and interpretation of the geophysical data. Inversion reconstructs an image of the subsurface from the raw geophysical data. How closely the image reproduces the true subsurface structure or property of interest depends on the particular technique’s resolution, depth of investigation and sensor locations. Lastly, in some cases, interpretation of the geophysical data or inversion will be necessary to link the data to the variables that determine the outcome of the decision. Three examples are provided that illustrate different approaches and methods for addressing these challenges. In the examples, time-domain electromagnetic and electrical resistivity techniques are evaluated for their ability to assist in spatial decisions for aquifer management. The examples considered address these three situations: aquifer vulnerability to surface–borne contaminants, managed aquifer recharge and CO2/brine leakage (related to CO2 geologic sequestration activities). The methods presented here are transferable to other subsurface sciences and decisions that involve risk. Recent work has been applied to geothermal well-siting using electromagnetic techniques. These approaches can also be applied for oil and mining spatial decisions, and they offer advantages over previous VOI work done for oil applications: they explicitly include the geologic uncertainty modeling and simulate the physics of the considered geophysical technique.

Introduction to special section: Seismic facies classification and modeling

Facies classification is a challenging task in formation evaluation analysis and seismic reservoir characterization. The facies classification model is a key element in the reservoir modeling work flow because the distribution of rock and elastic properties as well as the petroelastic models between