Wibecke Brun

Yes, but it is uncertain: Direction and communicative intention of verbal probabilistic terms

Abstract Previous studies comparing verbal and numerical probabilities have failed to take into account the directional aspect of verbal phrases. Some terms, like “probable” and “possible”, seem to be affirmative, whereas others, like “unlikely” and “doubtful”, function more like negations. This bi-directionality was explored in four studies in which American and Norwegian students were asked (1) to complete sentences containing various verbal and numerical phrases, and ending in “because ...”; (2) to evaluate the appropriateness of selected verbal phrases in otherwise complete sentences; (3) to evaluate the appropriateness of selected answering words ( yes, no, yes, but , and no, but ) in answers containing verbal and numerical probabilities; and (4) to select appropriate verbal phrases in situations characterized by specific p values of success and failure. It was found that most verbal probabilities are directionally unambiguous (more than numbers). Evidence was also found for a positivity bias, in that affirmative phrases apply to a wider variety of probabilities and outcomes (successes and failures) than do negative phrases. Even low numerical probabilities were more often treated as affirmations than as negations.

Risk as feelings or risk and feelings? A cross‐lagged panel analysis

This article focuses on affective and cognitive processes underlying the perception of risk. A limitation with most process models of affect/cognition is that they include only concurrent emotions. By following a group (n = 129) of military sailors prospectively during an international operation, we explored longitudinal relations between perceived risk and related feelings. The risk‐relevant variables were embedded in a larger questionnaire aimed at studying mental readiness during international military operations at sea. Longitudinal cross‐lagged path models were estimated to explore the relationships between perceived risk, worry, and emotional distress. Results gave support to earlier studies by showing that cross‐sectional measures of risk and worry were weakly related. Across time, worry and emotional distress were reciprocally related. Perceived risk had impact on worry but not on emotional distress. Neither worry nor emotional distress influenced perceived risk. The risk‐as‐feelings hypothesis postulates a direct effect of feelings onto behavioural choice, and a reciprocal relation between cognitive evaluations and feelings. Our findings do not support a reciprocal relation between judgements of risk and feelings, but an impact from risk on to worry. Between various measures of feelings reciprocity seems to exist. Further replications, including also behavioural measures, are needed.

Ambiguous probabilities: when doesp=0.3 reflect a possibility, and when does it express a doubt?

Verbal phrases denoting uncertainty are usually held to be more vague than numerical probability statements. They are, however, directionally more precise, in the sense that they are either positive, suggesting the occurrence of a target outcome, or negative, drawing attention to its non-occurrence. A numerical probability will, in contrast, sometimes be perceived as positive and sometimes as negative. When asked to complete sentences such as ‘The operation has a 30% chance of success, because’ some people will give reasons for success (‘the doctors are expert surgeons’), whereas others will give reasons for failure (‘it is a difficult operation’). It is shown in two experiments that positive reasons are given more often than negative ones, even for p values below 0.5, especially when the probability is higher than expected, and the target outcome is non-normal, undesirable, and phrased as a negation. We conclude that the directionality of numerical probabilities (as opposed to verbal phrases) is context-dependent, but biased towards a positive interpretation. Copyright

Situation Awareness and Transformational Leadership in Senior Military Leaders: An Exploratory Study.

This study explored the relationship between leadership style and operational readiness in a sample of senior Norwegian military officers (N = 43), who participated in a 1-week joint staff exercise. Leadership style was measured by the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ-45), and indicators of operational readiness included situation awareness and interpersonal influence. Transformational leadership emerged as a predictor of situation awareness (R2 = .33) and interpersonal influence (R2 = .25), with intellectual stimulation as the only significant predictor among the facet subscales. Some possible theoretical and methodological implications for future research are also pointed out.

Effects of Sudden and Dramatic Events on Travel Desire and Risk Judgments

This paper reports results from two quasi experiments and one field experiment. The first study was performed before and during the Iraq war (Spring 2003), applying a within-subjects design. Participants rated their desire to undertake trips to various destinations and they estimated risks linked to these destinations and trips. The preferences were subjected to factor analysis, yielding 12 various holiday forms. Study 2 was conducted before and after the terror attacks in Madrid (Spring 2004), applying a within-subjects design and addressing the same issues as in the first study. The third study used a between-subjects design, and focused on risk judgments in tourists to Mallorca before and after the terror attacks in London (July 2005). Results from Study 1 indicated that the desire to travel decreased during the initial stages of the Iraq war. It was observed that risk judgments for various holiday forms remained unchanged. Results from Study 2 indicated that desire to travel and subjective risk judgments for various holiday forms did not change following the terrorist bombs in Madrid, but that Madrid was judged to be more risky following the terror. Results from Study 3 indicated that the terror bombs in London had no effect on risk judgments for various holiday forms, but that the events resulted in higher judgments for specific destinations such as for example London. Interestingly, retrospectively respondents in both Study 2 and Study 3 judged the world as such as well as tourist destinations to have become more risky and less safe since the “War on terror” was launched.

Affective and cognitive attitudes, uncertainty avoidance and intention to obtain genetic testing : An extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

To ensure successful implementation of genetic screening and counselling according to patients best interests, the attitudes and motives of the public are important to consider. The aim of this study was to apply a theoretical framework in order to investigate which individual and disease characteristics might facilitate the uptake of genetic testing. A questionnaire using an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour was developed to assess the predictive value of affective and cognitive expected outcomes, subjective norms, perceived control and uncertainty avoidance on the intention to undergo genetic testing. In addition to these individual characteristics, the predictive power of two disease characteristics was investigated by systematically varying the diseases fatality and penetrance (i.e. the probability of getting ill in case one is a mutation carrier). This resulted in four versions of the questionnaire which was mailed to a random sample of 2400 Norwegians. Results showed genetic test interest to be quite high, and to vary depending on the characteristics of the disease, with participants preferring tests for highly penetrant diseases. The most important individual predictor was uncertainty avoidance.

Measuring and modelling risk in a naturalistic setting

Two studies were undertaken to investigate risk perception in a military context. A questionnaire elicited cadets’ (n = 136) ratings of three categories of critical incidents (threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians) on nine qualitative risk dimensions adapted from the ‘Psychometric risk paradigm’ along with perceived personal risk, general risk, security and anticipated anxiousness. Factor analyses of average responses to the nine dimensions revealed two components: dread and new risk, the former strongly correlated with anticipated anxiousness and perceived personal and general risk. In a prospective survey, peacekeepers in Kosovo (n = 766) reported frequencies of exposure to threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians, and rated their personal risk of injury, the general risk and their trust in security relative to the peacekeeping operation. The fitness of a path model relating risk perception to risk exposure was estimated with reference to data collected after two, four and six months of deployment. Results were systematic across measurements and fit-indices in suggesting support for the model. The results confirm and extend findings from previous studies on risk perception by showing the impact of both risk characteristics (qualitative dimensions) and actual risk exposure (frequencies) on subjective risk perceptions.

‘I am not at risk – typical tourists are’! Social comparison of risk in tourists

Aim: The presented research aims to study the relationship between judgements of risks to oneself as a tourist as compared to risks to ‘typical tourists’, ‘average tourists’ and ‘typical tourist from your home country’. Methods: Altogether, 1,892 tourists visiting Norway (summer 2010) filled in a questionnaire on aspects of being a tourist. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of four groups. Group 1 was asked about risk to themselves; Group 2 was asked to indicate their thoughts about ‘risk to typical tourists’; Group 3 indicated risks for ‘average tourists’; and Group 4 was asked about risks for typical tourists from their home country. Results: Results show that all risks were judged to be low, but significantly higher risks were attributed to the typical and average tourist than to ‘self’. Conclusions: The results are interpreted in terms of social cognitive processes such as the ‘optimistic bias’.

Confidentiality versus duty to inform—An empirical study on attitudes towards the handling of genetic information†

We set out to investigate whether potential relatives want to be informed about the existence of hereditary conditions within their family and under which conditions they want healthcare providers to breach confidentiality to inform them. We hypothesized that the willingness to be informed about a hereditary condition in the family would be influenced by characteristics of the disease and by individual characteristics. Surveys were administered to a Norwegian random sample (N = 2,400) to a Swedish random sample (N = 1,200), and to a Norwegian student sample (n = 607). Eight different disease scenarios were constructed, systematically varying three disease characteristics: fatality, penetrance, and availability of treatment. Results show that a majority of participants wished to be informed about the existence of a hereditary disease within their family. The desire to be informed and the acceptability of breaches of confidentiality were predicted by the treatability of the disease, uncertainty avoidance, and age, but not by self‐efficacy or worry.

Judgments of risk and probability: the role of frequentistic information

Risks and probabilities are often normatively defined in terms of the relative frequency of a target outcome. Psychological studies have shown that people are skilled in processing frequency information. Despite this, they often form discrepant estimates of probabilities and risks. The present paper traces this discrepancy to the perceived relevance of frequency information. In Study 1, student participants were asked to produce arguments for or against the riskiness of selected activities and substances. Less than 10% of the answers contained reference to harm or accident frequencies. In the next two studies, participants drew arrows between the concepts frequency, probability, and risk (Study 2), and winning frequency, winning probability, and quality of a successful soccer team (Study 3), arranged in a triad. In both diagrams, frequency was pictured as an effect rather than a cause. In Study 4, participants were to generate or choose explanations for verbal and numerical probability statements, and to describe what kind of evidence they would like to have to validate such statements. Here, frequentistic evidence was referred to or requested in 25–50% of the cases. It is concluded that the answers are more consistent with a dispositionist than a frequentist model of probabilities and risk. Copyright