Wiley Evans

A regression modeling approach for studying carbonate system variability in the northern Gulf of Alaska

[1]xa0The northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA) shelf experiences carbonate system variability on seasonal and annual time scales, but little information exists to resolve higher frequency variability in this region. To resolve this variability using platforms-of-opportunity, we present multiple linear regression (MLR) models constructed from hydrographic data collected along the Northeast Pacific Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Seward Line. The empirical algorithms predict dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) using observations of nitrate (NO3−), temperature, salinity and pressure from the surface to 500u2009m, with R2su2009>u20090.97 and RMSE values of 11u2009µmolu2009kg−1 for DIC and 9u2009µmolu2009kg−1 for TA. We applied these relationships to high-resolution NO3− data sets collected during a novel 20u2009h glider flight and a GLOBEC mesoscale SeaSoar survey. Results from the glider flight demonstrated time/space along-isopycnal variability of aragonite saturations (Ωarag) associated with a dicothermal layer (a cold near-surface layer found in high latitude oceans) that rivaled changes seen vertically through the thermocline. The SeaSoar survey captured the uplift to <100u2009m of dense, high-pCO2 waters at the shelf break that had been forced by the passage of a Yakutat eddy. During this event, the aragonite saturation horizon (depth where Ωaragu2009=u20091) shoaled to a previously unseen depth in the northern GOA. This work is similar to recent studies aimed at predicting the carbonate system in continental margin settings, albeit demonstrates that a NO3−-based approach can be applied to high-latitude data collected from platforms capable of high-frequency measurements.

Sea‐air CO2 exchange in the western Arctic coastal ocean

The biogeochemical seascape of the western Arctic coastal ocean is in rapid transition. Changes in sea ice cover will be accompanied by alterations in sea-air carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange, of which the latter has been difficult to constrain owing to sparse temporal and spatial data sets. Previous assessments of sea-air CO2 flux have targeted specific subregional areas of the western Arctic coastal ocean. Here a holistic approach is taken to determine the net sea-air CO2 flux over this broad region. We compiled and analyzed an extensive data set of nearly 600,000 surface seawater CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements spanning 2003 through 2014. Using space-time colocated, reconstructed atmospheric pCO2 values coupled with the seawater pCO2 data set, monthly climatologies of sea-air pCO2 differences (ΔpCO2) were created on a 0.2° latitudeu2009×u20090.5° longitude grid. Sea-air CO2 fluxes were computed using the ΔpCO2 grid and gas transfer rates calculated from climatology of wind speed second moments. Fluxes were calculated with and without the presence of sea ice, treating sea ice as an imperfect barrier to gas exchange. This allowed for carbon uptake by the western Arctic coastal ocean to be assessed under existing and reduced sea ice cover conditions, in which carbon uptake increased 30% over the current 10.9u2009±u20095.7u2009Tgu2009C (1u2009Tgu2009=u20091012u2009g)u2009yr−1 of sea ice-adjusted exchange in the region. This assessment extends beyond previous subregional estimates in the region in an all-inclusive manner and points to key unresolved aspects that must be targeted by future research.

Failure to bloom: Intense upwelling results in negligible phytoplankton response and prolonged CO2 outgassing over the Oregon shelf

During summer, upwelled water with elevated CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and nutrients outcrops over the Oregon (OR) inner shelf. As this water transits across the shelf, high rates of primary production fueled by the upwelled nutrients results in net atmospheric CO2 drawdown. Upwelled source-waters typically have pCO2 approaching 1000 µatm that is then reduced to ∼200 µatm. For almost the entire month of July 2008, strong and persistent upwelling brought cold (∼8°C), saline (∼33.5), high-pCO2 (>600 µatm) water to our midshelf buoy site, and high-pCO2 water was broadly distributed over the shelf. Chlorophyll levels, as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, were low (< 2 mg m−3) on the shelf during the period of most intense upwelling, and satellite data showed no evidence of a downstream phytoplankton bloom. A small chlorophyll increase to ∼4 mg m−3 was observed at our buoy site following a decrease in the strength of southward wind stress 10 days after upwelling initiated. Chlorophyll levels further increased to ∼10 mg m−3 only after a cease in upwelling. These higher levels were coincident with the appearance of water masses having temperature and salinity properties distinct from recently upwelled water. We suggest that rapid offshore transport and subsequent subduction before phytoplankton populations could respond is the most likely explanation for the persistent low chlorophyll and elevated surface-water pCO2 throughout the July upwelling event. This mechanism likely dominates under conditions of strong and persistent upwelling-favorable winds that coincide with close proximity of low-density offshore waters, which may have implications for the biogeochemical functioning of this system under future climate scenarios.

Annual sea‐air CO2 fluxes in the Bering Sea: Insights from new autumn and winter observations of a seasonally ice‐covered continental shelf

High-resolution data collected from several programs have greatly increased the spatiotemporal resolution of pCO2(sw) data in the Bering Sea, and provided the first autumn and winter observations. Using data from 2008 to 2012, monthly climatologies of sea-air CO2 fluxes for the Bering Sea shelf area from April to December were calculated, and contributions of physical and biological processes to observed monthly sea-air pCO2 gradients (?pCO2) were investigated. Net efflux of CO2 was observed during November, December, and April, despite the impact of sea surface cooling on ?pCO2. Although the Bering Sea was believed to be a moderate to strong atmospheric CO2 sink, we found that autumn and winter CO2 effluxes balanced 65% of spring and summer CO2 uptake. Ice cover reduced sea-air CO2 fluxes in December, April, and May. Our estimate for ice-cover corrected fluxes suggests the mechanical inhibition of CO2 flux by sea-ice cover has only a small impact on the annual scale (<2%). An important data gap still exists for January to March, the period of peak ice cover and the highest expected retardation of the fluxes. By interpolating between December and April using assumptions of the described autumn and winter conditions, we estimate the Bering Sea shelf area is an annual CO2 sink of ?6.8 Tg C yr?1. With changing climate, we expect warming sea surface temperatures, reduced ice cover, and greater wind speeds with enhanced gas exchange to decrease the size of this CO2 sink by augmenting conditions favorable for greater wintertime outgassing.

On the Frontline: Tracking Ocean Acidification in an Alaskan Shellfish Hatchery

The invasion of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) into the ocean is shifting the marine carbonate system such that saturation states of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) minerals are decreasing, and this is having a detrimental impact on early life stages of select shellfish species. The global, secular decrease in CaCO3 saturation states is occurring on top of a backdrop of large natural variability in coastal settings; progressively shifting the envelope of variability and leading to longer and more frequent exposure to adverse conditions. This is a great concern in the State of Alaska, a high-latitude setting vulnerable to rapid changes in the marine carbonate system, where an emerging shellfish industry plans major growth over the coming decades. Currently, the Alutiiq Pride Shellfish Hatchery (APSH) in Seward, Alaska is the only hatchery in the state, and produces many shellfish species with early life stages known to be sensitive to low CaCO3 saturation states. Here we present the first land-based OA measurements made in an Alaskan shellfish hatchery, and detail the trends in the saturation state of aragonite (Ωarag), the more soluble form of CaCO3, over a 10-month period in the APSH seawater supply. These data indicate the largest changes are on the seasonal time scale, with extended periods of sub-optimal Ωarag levels (Ωarag < 1.5) in winter and autumn associated with elevated water column respiration and short-lived runoff events, respectively. The data pinpoint a 5-month window of reprieve with favorable Ωarag conditions above the sub-optimal Ωarag threshold, which under predicted upper-bound CO2 emissions trajectories is estimated to close by 2040. To date, many species in production at APSH remain untested in their response to OA, and the data presented here establish the current conditions at APSH as well as provide a framework for hatchery-based measurements in Alaska. The current and expected conditions seen at APSH are essential to consider for this developing Alaskan industry.