Wilfred Ndifon

Differential neutralization efficiency of hemagglutinin epitopes, antibody interference, and the design of influenza vaccines

It is generally assumed that amino acid mutations in the surface protein, hemagglutinin (HA), of influenza viruses allow these viruses to circumvent neutralization by antibodies induced during infection. However, empirical data on circulating influenza viruses show that certain amino acid changes to HA actually increase the efficiency of neutralization of the mutated virus by antibodies raised against the parent virus. Here, we suggest that this surprising increase in neutralization efficiency after HA mutation could reflect steric interference between antibodies. Specifically, if there is a steric competition for binding to HA by antibodies with different neutralization efficiencies, then a mutation that reduces the binding of antibodies with low neutralization efficiencies could increase overall viral neutralization. We use a mathematical model of virus–antibody interaction to elucidate the conditions under which amino acid mutations to HA could lead to an increase in viral neutralization. Using insights gained from the model, together with genetic and structural data, we predict that amino acid mutations to epitopes C and E of the HA of influenza A/H3N2 viruses could lead on average to an increase in the neutralization of the mutated viruses. We present data supporting this prediction and discuss the implications for the design of more effective vaccines against influenza viruses and other pathogens.

On the use of hemagglutination-inhibition for influenza surveillance: surveillance data are predictive of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

The hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay is the main tool used by epidemiologists to quantify antigenic differences between circulating influenza virus strains, with the goal of selecting suitable vaccine strains. However, such quantitative measures of antigenic difference were recently shown to have poor predictive accuracy with respect to influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in healthy adults. Here, we re-examine those results using a more rigorous criterion for predictive accuracy -- considering only cases when the vaccine (V) and dominant (D) circulating strains are antigenically different -- and greater numbers of HI titers. We find that the Archetti -- Horsfall measure of antigenic difference, which is based on both the normalized HI titer (NHI) of D relative to antisera raised against V and the NHI of V relative to D, predicts VE very well (R(2)=0.62, p=4.1x10(-3)). In contrast, the predictive accuracies of the NHI of D relative to V alone (R(2)=0.01), and two other measures of antigenic difference based on the amino acid sequence of influenza virus hemagglutinin (R(2)=0.03 for both measures) are relatively poor. Furthermore, while VE in the elderly is generally high in cases when D and V are antigenically identical (VE=35%, S.E.=5%), in other cases VE appears to increase with the antigenic difference between D and V (R(2)=0.90, p=2.5x10(-5)). This paradoxical observation could reflect the confounding effects of prior immunity on estimates of VE in the elderly. Together, our results underscore the need for consistently accurate selection of suitable vaccine strains. We suggest directions for further studies aimed at improving vaccine-strain selection and present a large collection of HI titers that will be useful to such studies.

On the Accessibility of Adaptive Phenotypes of a Bacterial Metabolic Network

The mechanisms by which adaptive phenotypes spread within an evolving population after their emergence are understood fairly well. Much less is known about the factors that influence the evolutionary accessibility of such phenotypes, a pre-requisite for their emergence in a population. Here, we investigate the influence of environmental quality on the accessibility of adaptive phenotypes of Escherichia colis central metabolic network. We used an established flux-balance model of metabolism as the basis for a genotype-phenotype map (GPM). We quantified the effects of seven qualitatively different environments (corresponding to both carbohydrate and gluconeogenic metabolic substrates) on the structure of this GPM. We found that the GPM has a more rugged structure in qualitatively poorer environments, suggesting that adaptive phenotypes could be intrinsically less accessible in such environments. Nevertheless, on average ∼74% of the genotype can be altered by neutral drift, in the environment where the GPM is most rugged; this could allow evolving populations to circumvent such ruggedness. Furthermore, we found that the normalized mutual information (NMI) of genotype differences relative to phenotype differences, which measures the GPMs capacity to transmit information about phenotype differences, is positively correlated with (simulation-based) estimates of the accessibility of adaptive phenotypes in different environments. These results are consistent with the predictions of a simple analytic theory that makes explicit the relationship between the NMI and the speed of adaptation. The results suggest an intuitive information-theoretic principle for evolutionary adaptation; adaptation could be faster in environments where the GPM has a greater capacity to transmit information about phenotype differences. More generally, our results provide insight into fundamental environment-specific differences in the accessibility of adaptive phenotypes, and they suggest opportunities for research at the interface between information theory and evolutionary biology.

A double-edged sword: does highly active antiretroviral therapy contribute to syphilis incidence by impairing immunity to Treponema pallidum?

Background and hypothesis Recently, the world has experienced a rapidly escalating outbreak of infectious syphilis primarily affecting men who have sex with men (MSM); many are taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV-1 infection. The prevailing hypothesis is that HAART availability and effectiveness have led to the perception among both individuals who are HIV-1 infected and those who are uninfected that HIV-1 transmission has become much less likely, and the effects of HIV-1 infection less deadly. This is expected to result in increased sexual risk-taking, especially unprotected anal intercourse, leading to more non-HIV-1 STDs, including gonorrhoea, chlamydia and syphilis. However, syphilis incidence has increased more rapidly than other STDs. We hypothesise that HAART downregulates the innate and acquired immune responses to Treponema pallidum and that this biological explanation plays an important role in the syphilis epidemic. Methods We performed a literature search and developed a mathematical model of HIV-1 and T. pallidum confection in a population with two risk groups with assortative mixing to explore the consequence on syphilis prevalence of HAART-induced changes in behaviour versus HAART-induced biological effects. Conclusions and implications Since rising syphilis incidence appears to have outpaced gonorrhoea and chlamydia, predominantly affecting HIV-1 positive MSM, behavioural factors alone may be insufficient to explain the unique, sharp increase in syphilis incidence. HAART agents have the potential to alter the innate and acquired immune responses in ways that may enhance susceptibility to T. pallidum. This raises the possibility that therapeutic and preventative HAART may inadvertently increase the incidence of syphilis, a situation that would have significant and global public health implications. We propose that additional studies investigating the interplay between HAART and enhanced T. pallidum susceptibility are needed. If our hypothesis is correct, HAART should be combined with enhanced patient management including frequent monitoring for pathogens such as T. pallidum.

New methods for analyzing serological data with applications to influenza surveillance

Please cite this paper as: Ndifon W. (2011) New methods for analyzing serological data with applications to influenza surveillance. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/j.1750‐2659.2010.00192.x.

A contact-waiting-time metric and RNA folding rates

Metrics for indirectly predicting the folding rates of RNA sequences are of interest. In this letter, we introduce a simple metric of RNA structural complexity, which accounts for differences in the energetic contributions of RNA base contacts toward RNA structure formation. We apply the metric to RNA sequences whose folding rates were previously determined experimentally. We find that the metric has good correlation (correlation coefficient: −0.95, p ≪ 0.01 ) with the logarithmically transformed folding rates of those RNA sequences. This suggests that the metric can be useful for predicting RNA folding rates. We use the metric to predict the folding rates of bacterial and eukaryotic group II introns. Future applications of the metric (e.g., to predict structural RNAs) could prove fruitful.

An RNA foldability metric; implications for the design of rapidly foldable RNA sequences.

Evidence is presented suggesting, for the first time, that the protein foldability metric sigma = (T(theta)-T(f))/T(theta), where T(theta) and T(f) are, respectively, the collapse and folding transition temperatures, could be used also to measure the foldability of RNA sequences. These results provide further evidence of similarities between the folding energy landscapes of proteins and RNA. The importance of sigma is discussed in the context of the in silico design of rapidly foldable RNA sequences.

Regulatory vs. helper CD4+ T-cell ratios and the progression of HIV/AIDS disease

The causes of individual variability in the length of time between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the development of AIDS are incompletely understood. Here, we present a novel hypothesis: that the relative magnitude of responses to HIV mediated by CD4+ T regulatory (Treg) cells vs. CD4+ T effector (Teff) cells is a critical determinant of variability in AIDS progression rates. We use a simple mathematical model to show that this hypothesis can plausibly explain three qualitatively different outcomes of HIV infection – fast or slow progression to AIDS, and long-term non-progression to AIDS – based on individual variation in underlying T-cell response. This hypothesis also provides a unifying explanation for various other empirical observations, suggesting in particular that both aging and certain dual infections increase the rate of AIDS progression because they increase the strength of the Treg cell response. We discuss potential therapeutic implications of our results.