Will G. Hopkins

Modelling relationships between match events and match outcome in elite football

Abstract Identifying match events that are related to match outcome is an important task in football match analysis. Here we have used generalised mixed linear modelling to determine relationships of 16 football match events and 1 contextual variable (game location: home/away) with the match outcome. Statistics of 320 close matches (goal difference ≤ 2) of season 2012–2013 in the Spanish First Division Professional Football League were analysed. Relationships were evaluated with magnitude-based inferences and were expressed as extra matches won or lost per 10 close matches for an increase of two within-team or between-team standard deviations (SD) of the match event (representing effects of changes in team values from match to match and of differences between average team values, respectively). There was a moderate positive within-team effect from shots on target (3.4 extra wins per 10 matches; 99% confidence limits ±1.0), and a small positive within-team effect from total shots (1.7 extra wins; ±1.0). Effects of most other match events were related to ball possession, which had a small negative within-team effect (1.2 extra losses; ±1.0) but a small positive between-team effect (1.7 extra wins; ±1.4). Game location showed a small positive within-team effect (1.9 extra wins; ±0.9). In analyses of nine combinations of team and opposition end-of-season rank (classified as high, medium, low), almost all between-team effects were unclear, while within-team effects varied depending on the strength of team and opposition. Some of these findings will be useful to coaches and performance analysts when planning training sessions and match tactics.

Modeling parameters that characterize pacing of elite female 800-m freestyle swimmers

Abstract Pacing offers a potential avenue for enhancement of endurance performance. We report here a novel method for characterizing pacing in 800-m freestyle swimming. Websites provided 50-m lap and race times for 192 swims of 20 elite female swimmers between 2000 and 2013. Pacing for each swim was characterized with five parameters derived from a linear model: linear and quadratic coefficients for effect of lap number, reductions from predicted time for first and last laps, and lap-time variability (standard error of the estimate). Race-to-race consistency of the parameters was expressed as intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The average swim was a shallow negative quadratic with slowest time in the eleventh lap. First and last laps were faster by 6.4% and 3.6%, and lap-time variability was ±0.64%. Consistency between swimmers ranged from low-moderate for the linear and quadratic parameters (ICC = 0.29 and 0.36) to high for the last-lap parameter (ICC = 0.62), while consistency for race time was very high (ICC = 0.80). Only ~15% of swimmers had enough swims (~15 or more) to provide reasonable evidence of optimum parameter values in plots of race time vs. each parameter. The modest consistency of most of the pacing parameters and lack of relationships between parameters and performance suggest that swimmers usually compensated for changes in one parameter with changes in another. In conclusion, pacing in 800-m elite female swimmers can be characterized with five parameters, but identifying an optimal pacing profile is generally impractical.

Effect of Flavonoids on Upper Respiratory Tract Infections and Immune Function: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Previous research on animals indicates flavonoid compounds have immunomodulatory properties; however, human research remains inconclusive. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the efficacy of dietary flavonoids on upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and immune function in healthy adults. A created search strategy was run against Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE and EMBASE classic, CINAHL, and AMED. The returned studies were initially screened, and 2 reviewers independently assessed the remaining studies for eligibility against prespecified criteria. Fourteen studies, of 387 initially identified, were included in this review, and the primary outcome measure was the effect of flavonoids on URTI incidence, duration, and severity. Of the included studies, flavonoid supplementation ranged from 0.2 to 1.2 g/d. Overall, flavonoid supplementation decreased URTI incidence by 33% (95% CI: 31%, 36%) compared with control, with no apparent adverse effects. Sick-day count was decreased by 40% with flavonoid supplementation, although unclear. Differences in bio-immune markers (e.g., interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ, neutrophils) were trivial between the intervention and control groups during the intervention and after exercise when a postintervention exercise bout was included. These findings suggest that flavonoids are a viable supplement to decrease URTI incidence in an otherwise healthy population.

The Loughborough Soccer Passing Test has impractical criterion validity in elite youth football

ABSTRACT Passing ability is of great importance in the development of young football players. The Loughborough Soccer Passing Test (LSPT) was developed to assess short-distance passing ability under time pressure, in a controlled environment. While the test has strong discriminant validity and acceptable test–retest reliability, no information exists on its ability to predict passing performance during a game. The aim of the present study was to assess the criterion validity of the LSPT in elite youth football players. Twenty-four outfield male players from an U18 state-representative team performed the LSPT. Criterion measures of passing performance overall and in high-difficulty scenarios were provided by video analysis of the first eight subsequent games of a competitive season. Validity was quantified as Pearson’s correlations between the LSPT score (total and time-only) and the two criterion measures, adjusted for reliability of the criterion measures. The adjusted correlations ranged from 0.30 (90% confidence limits −0.17, 0.74) to 0.47 (−0.02, 0.97), representing impractical to very poor validity. No variable from the game video analysis in isolation (e.g., pass direction, pass location etc.) had a meaningful correlation with the LSPT scores. In conclusion, our results do not support the use of the LSPT as a valid test of in-game passing performance in this cohort of youth players.

Proposal of a global training load measure predicting match performance in an elite team sport

Aim: The use of external and internal load is an important aspect of monitoring systems in team sport. The aim of this study was to validate a novel measure of training load by quantifying the training-performance relationship of elite Australian footballers. Methods: The primary training measure of each of 36 players was weekly load derived from a weighted combination of Global Positioning System (GPS) data and perceived wellness over a 24-week season. Smoothed loads representing an exponentially weighted rolling average were derived with decay time constants of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 weeks. Differential loads representing rate of change in load were generated in similar fashion. Other derived measures of training included monotony, strain and acute:chronic ratio. Performance was a proprietary score derived from match performance indicators. Effects of a 1 SD within-player change below and above the mean of each training measure were quantified with a quadratic mixed model for each position (defenders, forwards, midfielders, and rucks). Effects were interpreted using standardization and magnitude-based inferences. Results: Performance was generally highest near the mean or ~1 SD below the mean of each training measure, and 1 SD increases in the following measures produced small impairments: weekly load (defenders, forwards, and midfielders); 1.5-week smoothed load (midfielders); 4-week differential load (defenders, forwards, and midfielders); and acute:chronic ratio (defenders and forwards). Effects of other measures in other positions were either trivial or unclear. Conclusion: The innovative combination of load was sensitive to performance in this elite Australian football cohort. Periods of high acute load and sustained increases in load impaired match performance. Positional differences should be taken into account for individual training prescription.

Variations in Hypoxia Impairs Muscle Oxygenation and Performance during Simulated Team-Sport Running

Purpose: To quantify the effect of acute hypoxia on muscle oxygenation and power during simulated team-sport running. Methods: Seven individuals performed repeated and single sprint efforts, embedded in a simulated team-sport running protocol, on a non-motorized treadmill in normoxia (sea-level), and acute normobaric hypoxia (simulated altitudes of 2,000 and 3,000 m). Mean and peak power was quantified during all sprints and repeated sprints. Mean total work, heart rate, blood oxygen saturation, and quadriceps muscle deoxyhaemoglobin concentration (assessed via near-infrared spectroscopy) were measured over the entire protocol. A linear mixed model was used to estimate performance and physiological effects across each half of the protocol. Changes were expressed in standardized units for assessment of magnitude. Uncertainty in the changes was expressed as a 90% confidence interval and interpreted via non-clinical magnitude-based inference. Results: Mean total work was reduced at 2,000 m (−10%, 90% confidence limits ±6%) and 3,000 m (−15%, ±5%) compared with sea-level. Mean heart rate was reduced at 3,000 m compared with 2,000 m (−3, ±3 min−1) and sea-level (−3, ±3 min−1). Blood oxygen saturation was lower at 2,000 m (−8, ±3%) and 3,000 m (−15, ±2%) compared with sea-level. Sprint mean power across the entire protocol was reduced at 3,000 m compared with 2,000 m (−12%, ±3%) and sea-level (−14%, ±4%). In the second half of the protocol, sprint mean power was reduced at 3,000 m compared to 2,000 m (−6%, ±4%). Sprint mean peak power across the entire protocol was lowered at 2,000 m (−10%, ±6%) and 3,000 m (−16%, ±6%) compared with sea-level. During repeated sprints, mean peak power was lower at 2,000 m (−8%, ±7%) and 3,000 m (−8%, ±7%) compared with sea-level. In the second half of the protocol, repeated sprint mean power was reduced at 3,000 m compared to 2,000 m (−7%, ±5%) and sea-level (−9%, ±5%). Quadriceps muscle deoxyhaemoglobin concentration was lowered at 3,000 m compared to 2,000 m (−10, ±12%) and sea-level (−11, ±12%). Conclusions: Simulated team-sport running is impaired at 3,000 m compared to 2,000 m and sea-level, likely due to a higher muscle deoxygenation.

Quiet eye predicts goaltender success in deflected ice hockey shots.

Abstract In interceptive timing tasks, long quiet eye (QE) durations at the release point, along with early tracking on the object, allow performers to couple their actions to the kinematics of their opponent and regulate their movements based on emergent information from the objects trajectory. We used a mobile eye tracker to record the QE of eight university-level ice hockey goaltenders of an equivalent skill level as they responded to shots that deflected off a board placed to their left or right, resulting in a trajectory with low predictability. QE behaviour was assessed using logistic regression and magnitude-based inference. We found that when QE onset occurred later in the shot (950 ± 580 ms, mean ± SD) there was an increase in the proportion of goals allowed (41% vs. 22%) compared to when QE onset occurred earlier. A shorter QE duration (1260 ± 630 ms) predicted a large increase in the proportion of goals scored (38% vs. 14%). More saves occurred when QE duration (2074 ± 47 ms) was longer. An earlier QE offset (2004 ± 66 ms) also resulted in a large increase in the number of goals allowed (37% vs. 11%) compared to a later offset (2132 ± 41 ms). Since an early, sustained QE duration contributed to a higher percentage of saves, it is important that coaches develop practice activities that challenge the goaltenders ability to fixate the puck early, as well as sustain a long QE fixation on the puck until after it is released from the stick.

Erratum to: Error Rates, Decisive Outcomes and Publication Bias with Several Inferential Methods

Original article published Hopkins, W.G. & Batterham, A.M. Sports Medicine (2016) 46: 1563. doi:10.1007/s40279-016-0517-x

Exceptional case studies

case studies are rare in our journals and for good reason: without a sample, it is hard to assess the representativeness or uniqueness of an individual. The case studies that do get published are therefore so obviously exceptional that we cannot help but be interested in where nature or nurture has

Validity of an ultra-wideband local positioning system to measure locomotion in indoor sports

ABSTRACT The validity of an Ultra-wideband (UWB) positioning system was investigated during linear and change-of-direction (COD) running drills. Six recreationally-active men performed ten repetitions of four activities (walking, jogging, maximal acceleration, and 45º COD) on an indoor court. Activities were repeated twice, in the centre of the court and on the side. Participants wore a receiver tag (Clearsky T6, Catapult Sports) and two reflective markers placed on the tag to allow for comparisons with the criterion system (Vicon). Distance, mean and peak velocity, acceleration, and deceleration were assessed. Validity was assessed via percentage least-square means difference (Clearsky-Vicon) with 90% confidence interval and magnitude-based inference; typical error was expressed as within-subject standard deviation. The mean differences for distance, mean/peak speed, and mean/peak accelerations in the linear drills were in the range of 0.2–12%, with typical errors between 1.2 and 9.3%. Mean and peak deceleration had larger differences and errors between systems. In the COD drill, moderate-to-large differences were detected for the activity performed in the centre of the court, increasing to large/very large on the side. When filtered and smoothed following a similar process, the UWB-based positioning system had acceptable validity, compared to Vicon, to assess movements representative of indoor sports.