Will Irving

The economic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, a macroeconomic analysis

Executive Summary T his report estimates the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the economy of New Jersey using the R/ECON™ forecasting model of the states economy. The model consists of more than 250 quarterly time-series equations and 30 employment sectors. The analysis takes into account both the economic losses resulting from the hurricane and the offsetting positive economic impacts associated with recovery and reconstruction spending in the months and years following the storm. However, the estimates of impacts depend upon the restoration expenditures actually being made. If the funds for these restoration and recovery expenditures are not made available, the offsetting positive impacts to the economy will not occur and the New Jersey economy will be significantly damaged. See Section 3 for estimates of the negative impacts if restoration expenditures are not made. Based on estimated initial economic losses (not including damages to physical structures) of approximately

Where Have All the Dollars Gone? An Analysis of New Jersey Migration Patterns

11.7 billion in state gross domestic product (state GDP) and total recovery and reconstruction expenditures of approximately

Reversal of Economic Fortune: Regional and State Prosperity At Risk

25.1 billion through 2015, the analysis finds that, following heavy losses in state GDP, employment, and income in the fourth quarter of 2012, the state economy will rebound significantly, with economic activity exceeding the baseline forecast (i.e., without the storm) for 2013–2015. Estimated net impacts (i.e., those that take the full recovery expenditures into account) include: ❒ State GDP losses of

Union County: Baselines for the Future

7.1 billion in the final quarter of 2012, followed by annual gains of

Fiscal Flows in New Jersey: A Spatial Analysis of Major State Taxes and State Aid Programs

2.5 billion (2013),

Employment Recession and Recovery in the 50 States

1.7 billion (2014), and

Allocating U.S. Department of Homeland Security funds to States with explicit equity, population and energy facility security criteria

0.7 billion (2015) relative to baseline. ❒ Personal income

LP-CEM: A modeling tool for power systems planning incorporating climate change effects and macroeconomic trends for New Jersey, United States

1 billion below baseline in Q4 2012, followed by levels

Employment Recession and Recovery in the 50 States: A Further Update

300 million or more above baseline in 2013–2015. ❒ A loss of approximately

Transportation: Impact on Economy, Project 2008-05, Volume I and Volume II

82 million in state tax revenue in Q4 2012, followed by modest gains above baseline in 2013–2015. These estimates, while showing modest net positive impacts on the macroeconomic performance of the states economy in the years following the storm, are in no way meant to imply that New Jersey has benefited, or will benefit, from the storm. The damages, both human and economic, are enormous and real. What is not yet real and accomplished is the spending of the necessary resources to fully repair and rebuild. Only if the state obtains the resources needed to fund the offsetting recovery and reconstruction expenditures will the substantial negative economic and fiscal impacts of the storm be neutralized over time.