Willard L. Rodgers

Prevalence of Dementia in the United States: The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

Aim: To estimate the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and other dementias in the USA using a nationally representative sample. Methods: The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study sample was composed of 856 individuals aged 71 years and older from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) who were evaluated for dementia using a comprehensive in-home assessment. An expert consensus panel used this information to assign a diagnosis of normal cognition, cognitive impairment but not demented, or dementia (and dementia subtype). Using sampling weights derived from the HRS, we estimated the national prevalence of dementia, AD and vascular dementia by age and gender. Results: The prevalence of dementia among individuals aged 71 and older was 13.9%, comprising about 3.4 million individuals in the USA in 2002. The corresponding values for AD were 9.7% and 2.4 million individuals. Dementia prevalence increased with age, from 5.0% of those aged 71–79 years to 37.4% of those aged 90 and older. Conclusions: Dementia prevalence estimates from this first nationally representative population-based study of dementia in the USA to include subjects from all regions of the country can provide essential information for effective planning for the impending healthcare needs of the large and increasing number of individuals at risk for dementia as our population ages.

ESTIMABLE FUNCTIONS OF AGE, PERIOD, AND COHORT EFFECTS*

The main and interactive effects of age, period, and cohort are not estimable, although certain combinations of those effects are. A method used to obtain estimates of the effects of these variables involves the assumption of additivity and the imposition of one or more constraints on the relative effects of particular age levels, periods, or cohorts. This method can rarely if ever be justified for three reasons: first, the possibility of interactive effects cannot be ruled out a priori; second, although a constraint on the relationship of two groups may appear appropriate on a priori grounds, even small errors in the specification can have large effects on the estimates; and third, measurement error can lead to highly inaccurate estimates even if the constraint is precisely correct. A solution to the dilemma lies in the specification and measurement of the theoretical variables for which age, period, and cohort are indirect indicators.

Has Children's Poverty Become More Persistent?.

Iffood-stamp benefits are counted as income, there is little change in estimates ofpersistent povertyfor children between the late 1960s and early 1980s. However, the absence of change in persistent poverty masks a number of important changes in the demographic and statistical structure ofpersistent poverty. These changes include increasing inequality in the distribution of permanent socioeconomic position, greater dependence on social assistance, and the more familiar demographic changes such as increased numbers of single-parent families, higher educational attainments of parents, and decline in family size.

Age and Satisfaction Data from Several Large Surveys

The authors studied the relationship between age and variables measuring satisfactions with specific domains of life as well as global satisfaction and happiness. Data from several large, mostly national, surveys of American adults were utilized. The results showed an increase in satisfaction with housing, community, work, and, somewhat less consistently, with finances/income, standard of living, and leisure/spare time. The increase was less clear for family, marriage, friends, and global well-being. Various explanations for the relationship were tested by multiple regression procedures, using two national surveys. Higher religiosity of the aged, increased desire to respond in a socially acceptable manner, and a lessening of change in life conditions appear to contribute to higher satisfaction. Although these factors individually represent only partial explanations, a combination of them accounts for a substantial part of the relationship. On the other hand, certain aspects of older peoples lives are actually worse and, as such, suppress an even more substantial association between age and satisfactions.

Errors in Survey Reports of Earnings, Hours Worked, and Hourly Wages

Abstract Using administrative records on earnings, hours worked, and hourly wages for hourly employees of a single manufacturing firm, we found standard assumptions about errors in survey measures to be violated to varying extents. Errors are correlated with true scores, and errors in reports of earnings and hours in different periods are generally positively correlated with one another, particularly for reports given in a single interview. Although a high proportion of reporting errors are from an approximately normal distribution, a small proportion comes from a distribution with a much greater variance, and these cases often have considerable influence on estimates of relationships between variables.

The influence of individual and historical time on marital dissolution

This paper examines the influence of individual development and historical change on marital dissolution. Data from the vital statistics system of the United States and from the June 1980Current Population Survey are used to examine the experience of marriage cohorts from 1905 through 1975 and the periods from 1922 through 1979. The historical patterns can best be explained as effects of period rather than of birth or marriage cohort, and the individual patterns can be explained best as effects of age and age at marriage rather than of marital duration.

An Evaluation of Statistical Matching

The validity of findings based on statistically matched data sets depends on the accuracy of underlying assumptions about relationships between variables that are unique to each input file. Simulations of statistical matching procedures on samples from populations with known characteristics provide the basis for an evaluation of the usefulness of statistical matching, and for choosing among various matching techniques. In three such simulations frequent and substantial errors occur in estimates of bivariate and multivariate relationships between variables taken from two matched files. Alternative procedures for meeting the objectives of statistical matching with more solid theoretical justification and empirical support are proposed.

Psychosocial Mediation of Religious Coping Styles: A Study of Short-Term Psychological Distress Following Cardiac Surgery

Although religiousness and religious coping styles are well-documented predictors of well-being, research on the mechanisms through which religious coping styles operate is sparse. This prospective study examined religious coping styles, hope, and social support as pathways of the influence of general religiousness (religious importance and involvement) on the reduced postoperative psychological distress of 309 cardiac patients. Results of structural equation modeling indicated that controlling for preoperative distress, gender, and education, religiousness contributed to positive religious coping, which in turn was associated with less distress via a path fully mediated by the secular factors of social support and hope. Furthermore, negative religious coping styles, although correlated at the bivariate level with preoperative distress but not with religiousness, were associated both directly and indirectly with greater post-operative distress via the same mediators.

Interviewing Older Adults: A Comparison of Telephone and Face-to-Face Modalities

This article examines telephone interviewing of older adults and compares it with face-to-face interviews. Specifically, the following issues are examined in several national surveys: (1) differences in age distributions between the samples of adults reached in both modes; (2) explanations for potential differences in age distributions; (3) differences between the two modes in demographic characteristics in the adults reached, in interview process and in response quality, and how these mode differences vary by age of the respondents. Telephone surveys tend to underrepresent older persons, and older persons who do participate in a telephone survey are disproportionately well educated. Implications of the lower response rate among older persons are softened by the fact that reponse distributions across a range of questions show little difference by interview mode between older persons and persons of other age groups. A. Regula Herzog is Assistant Research Scientist at the Institute for Social Research and the Institute of Gerontology at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Willard L. Rodgers is Associate Research Scientist at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Richard A. Kulka is Senior Survey Methodologist at Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. This article is a revised and abbreviated version of three papers presented at the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Gerontological Society, San Diego, November 1980. This research was supported by USPHS Grant No. AGO2038 from the National Institute on Aging. The authors wish to thank Lynn Dielman and Mary Grace Moore for able research assistance; Charles Cannell, Philip Converse, Richard Curtin, Robert Groves, Robert Kahn, and the late Angus Campbell for data from several unreleased surveys; and Charles Cannell, Robert Groves, and Berit Ingersoll for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper. Public Opinion Quairter-ly Vol. 47 405-418 ? 1983 by the Tr-ustees of Columbia Univelsity Published by ElsevierScience Publishing Co, Inc. 0033-362X/83/0047-405/

Age differences in memory performance and memory ratings as measured in a sample survey.

2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.105 on Wed, 25 May 2016 06:47:29 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 406 HERZOG, RODGERS, AND KULKA research has been directed specifically to the use of telephone surveys with older adults. This paper represents an initial effort in that direction. In the type of telephone interview survey considered here, a random-digit dialing method for identifying sample households is used, and interviews with a random adult in each sample household are conducted from a central location. (For a detailed presentation of telephone interviewing methodology see Groves and Kahn, 1979; for a discussion of the sampling procedures see Waksberg, 1978.) A comparison of telephone and face-to-face interview surveys must therefore consider several areas of potential differences between the two: (1) their ability to reach a representative sample of the older population; (2) the nature of the interview process itself; and (3) the quality of the responses obtained. In general, the representativeness of a sample may be jeopardized in two ways. First, the sample may be drawn inaccurately and/or from a frame which systematically excludes certain members of the population. Second, persons who are identified by sampling procedures as respondents may not participate in the survey, thereby introducing systematic bias. With respect to the first point, persons without a telephone are systematically excluded from samples of telephone subscribers. However, this constitutes less of a problem when sampling older persons than when sampling the total population because older persons are slightly more likely than younger persons to have a telephone (Thornberry and Massey, 1978). With respect to the second point, response rates are generally somewhat lower for telephone interviews than similar interviews conducted face-to-face (Groves and Kahn, 1979). Moreover, older adults may be particularly likely to decline an interview on the telephone, since they are more likely than younger adults to have hearing problems (Corso, 1977), less likely to be used to the telephone, and likely to have less formal education. On the other hand, some older persons may be more likely to agree to participate in an interview when contacted by telephone than when contacted in person, because many of them are concerned about being victimized (Clemente and Kleiman, 1976) and interviews by telephone do not require them to admit a stranger to their home. In sum, it is difficult to predict how well telephone interviews will compare with face-to-face interviews in reaching the elderly population, since several potentially important factors apparently work in opposite directions. For several reasons the telephone interview process is expected to be more stressful and demanding than the face-to-face interview, particularly for older respondents. The failing sensory capacities of This content downloaded from 207.46.13.105 on Wed, 25 May 2016 06:47:29 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms INTERVIEWING OLDER ADULTS 407 older persons and their concerns about their performance (Botwinick, 1978) may make an interview which relies entirely on auditory communication particularly stressful. Telephone interviews also limit the amount and nature of feedback that an interviewer can provide to put a respondent at ease and to make the task more personal (Singer, 1981), factors of importance for good learning performance among older persons (Botwinick, 1978). Finally, telephone interviews often proceed at a more rapid pace than do face-to-face interviews (Groves and Kahn, 1979; Groves, 1978),1 and high speed is yet another factor known to be particularly detrimental to the perceptual and learning performance of older respondents (Botwinick, 1978; Corso, 1977). This paper examines telephone interviewing with older adults and compares this mode with face-to-face interviewing. Specifically, it addresses the following three issues: (1) differences in age distributions between the samples of adults that are reached by both modes; (2) explanations for potential differences in age distributions; (3) differences between the two modes in demographic characteristics of the adults that are reached, in interview process, and in response quality, and how these mode differences vary by age of the respondents.