William Cevallos

Environmental change and infectious disease: How new roads affect the transmission of diarrheal pathogens in rural Ecuador

Environmental change plays a large role in the emergence of infectious disease. The construction of a new road in a previously roadless area of northern coastal Ecuador provides a valuable natural experiment to examine how changes in the social and natural environment, mediated by road construction, affect the epidemiology of diarrheal diseases. Twenty-one villages were randomly selected to capture the full distribution of village population size and distance from a main road (remoteness), and these were compared with the major population center of the region, Borbón, that lies on the road. Estimates of enteric pathogen infection rates were obtained from case-control studies at the village level. Higher rates of infection were found in nonremote vs. remote villages [pathogenic Escherichia coli: odds ratio (OR) = 8.4, confidence interval (CI) 1.6, 43.5; rotavirus: OR = 4.0, CI 1.3, 12.1; and Giardia: OR = 1.9, CI 1.3, 2.7]. Higher rates of all-cause diarrhea were found in Borbón compared with the 21 villages (RR = 2.0, CI 1.5, 2.8), as well as when comparing nonremote and remote villages (OR = 2.7, CI 1.5, 4.8). Social network data collected in parallel offered a causal link between remoteness and disease. The significant and consistent trends across viral, bacterial, and protozoan pathogens suggest the importance of considering a broad range of pathogens with differing epidemiological patterns when assessing the environmental impact of new roads. This study provides insight into the initial health impacts that roads have on communities and into the social and environmental processes that create these impacts.

Heavy Rainfall Events and Diarrhea Incidence: The Role of Social and Environmental Factors

The impact of heavy rainfall events on waterborne diarrheal diseases is uncertain. We conducted weekly, active surveillance for diarrhea in 19 villages in Ecuador from February 2004 to April 2007 in order to evaluate whether biophysical and social factors modify vulnerability to heavy rainfall events. A heavy rainfall event was defined as 24-hour rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile value (56 mm) in a given 7-day period within the study period. Mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to test the hypothesis that rainfall in the prior 8 weeks, water and sanitation conditions, and social cohesion modified the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence. Heavy rainfall events were associated with increased diarrhea incidence following dry periods (incidence rate ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.87) and decreased diarrhea incidence following wet periods (incidence rate ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.92). Drinking water treatment reduced the deleterious impacts of heavy rainfall events following dry periods. Sanitation, hygiene, and social cohesion did not modify the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea. Heavy rainfall events appear to affect diarrhea incidence through contamination of drinking water, and they present the greatest health risks following periods of low rainfall. Interventions designed to increase drinking water treatment may reduce climate vulnerability.

Synergistic Effects Between Rotavirus and Coinfecting Pathogens on Diarrheal Disease: Evidence from a Community-based Study in Northwestern Ecuador

In developing countries where diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years of age, enteric coinfection is common. There is little understanding, however, of the biologic interaction between coinfecting pathogens. The authors investigated the potential for synergistic interaction between coinfecting pathogens on diarrhea pathogenesis using an epidemiologic framework. They conducted community-based, case-control studies in 22 communities in northwestern Ecuador between 2003 and 2008. Risk ratios of diarrhea associated with single infections and coinfections were estimated. Interaction between coinfecting pathogens was assessed through departure from risk ratio additivity and multiplicativity after adjustment for age. On the additive scale, the authors found departure from the null value of 0 for rotavirus-Giardia coinfections (interaction contrast ratio = 8.0, 95% confidence interval: 3.1, 18.9) and for rotavirus-Escherichia coli coinfections (interaction contrast ratio = 9.9, 95% confidence interval: 2.6, 28.4). On the multiplicative scale, they found departure from the value of 1 for rotavirus-Giardia coinfections (multiplicative interaction = 3.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.3, 8.7). This research provides epidemiologic evidence for synergism between rotavirus and other enteric pathogens. During coinfection, the pathogenic potential of each organism appears to be enhanced. The potential for pathogenesis to be more severe in the presence of a rotavirus coinfection amplifies the need for rotavirus vaccination.

I get height with a little help from my friends: herd protection from sanitation on child growth in rural Ecuador

BACKGROUND Infectious disease interventions, such as vaccines and bed nets, have the potential to provide herd protection to non-recipients. Similarly, improved sanitation in one household may provide community-wide benefits if it reduces contamination in the shared environment. Sanitation at the household level is an important predictor of child growth, but less is known about the effect of sanitation coverage in the community. METHODS From 2008 to 2013, we took repeated anthropometric measurements on 1314 children under 5 years of age in 24 rural Ecuadorian villages. Using mixed effects regression, we estimated the association between sanitation coverage in surrounding households and child growth. RESULTS Sanitation coverage in the surrounding households was strongly associated with child height, as those with 100% coverage in their surroundings had a 67% lower prevalence of stunting [prevalence ratio (PR) 0.32, 95% CI 0.15-0.69] compared with those with 0% coverage. Children from households with improved sanitation had a lower prevalence of stunting (PR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64-1.15). When analysing height as a continuous outcome, the protective effect of sanitation coverage is manifested primarily among girls during the second year of life, the time at which growth faltering is most likely to occur. CONCLUSIONS Our study highlights that a households sanitation practices can provide herd protection to the overall community. Studies which fail to account for the positive externalities that sanitation provides will underestimate the overall protective effect. Future studies could seek to identify a threshold of sanitation coverage, similar to a herd immunity threshold, to provide coverage and compliance targets.

Symptomatic and Subclinical Infection with Rotavirus P(8)G9, Rural Ecuador

Prevalence of this genotype is increasing.

Rapid changes in rotaviral genotypes in Ecuador.

Previous studies suggest that the emerging G9P[8] genotype was the most prevalent rotavirus genotype in Ecuador during 2005. This present study provides a temporal analysis of the distribution of rotavirus genotypes in two locations within Ecuador by adding additional years (2006 — early 2008) to the originally reported 2005 data. Data were collected in a rural (northern coastal Ecuador) and urban (Quito) area. In the rural area, a community sample of cases (those presenting diarrhea) and controls (those not presenting diarrhea) were collected between August 2003 and March 2008 resulting in a total of 3,300 stool samples (876 cases and 2,424 controls). Of these samples, 260 were positive for rotavirus by an immunochromatographic test (196 cases and 64 controls). In Quito, 59 fecal samples were collected from children presenting diarrhea and diagnosed with rotavirus. An RT‐PCR analysis of samples collected between 2005 and 2007 suggested that G9 was replaced by G1 and G2 in the rural and urban settings. During this period G9 decreased from 79% to 9% while G2 increased from 0% to 43% in the rural communities, and G9 decreased from 79% to 37% while G2 increased from 3% to 57% in the urban area of Quito. This rapid replacement of G9 by G1 and G2 reinforces the necessity of surveillance to inform vaccination programs. J. Med. Virol. 81:2109–2113, 2009.

Impact of rainfall on diarrheal disease risk associated with unimproved water and sanitation.

Diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of morbidity in areas with limited access to safe water and sanitation. As water and sanitation interventions continue to be implemented, it will be important to understand the ecological context in which they can prevent diarrhea. We conducted six serial case control studies in Ecuador to estimate the risk of diarrhea from unimproved water and sanitation and the potential for effect modification by rainfall. Unimproved water source and unimproved sanitation increased the adjusted odds of diarrhea (odds ratio [OR] = 3.6, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.7-7.8 and OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.2-2.5, respectively). The OR associated with an unimproved water source was highest after maximum rainfall (OR = 6.8, 95% CI = 1.9-24.5), whereas the OR associated with unimproved sanitation was highest after minimal rainfall (OR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.3-6.6). Our finding that use of safe water sources and improved sanitation facilities are most protective under opposing rainfall conditions highlights the need for integrated interventions to reduce the burden of diarrheal disease.

In-roads to the spread of antibiotic resistance: regional patterns of microbial transmission in northern coastal Ecuador

The evolution of antibiotic resistance (AR) increases treatment cost and probability of failure, threatening human health worldwide. The relative importance of individual antibiotic use, environmental transmission and rates of introduction of resistant bacteria in explaining community AR patterns is poorly understood. Evaluating their relative importance requires studying a region where they vary. The construction of a new road in a previously roadless area of northern coastal Ecuador provides a valuable natural experiment to study how changes in the social and natural environment affect the epidemiology of resistant Escherichia coli. We conducted seven bi-annual 15 day surveys of AR between 2003 and 2008 in 21 villages. Resistance to both ampicillin and sulphamethoxazole was the most frequently observed profile, based on antibiogram tests of seven antibiotics from 2210 samples. The prevalence of enteric bacteria with this resistance pair in the less remote communities was 80 per cent higher than in more remote communities (OR = 1.8 [1.3, 2.3]). This pattern could not be explained with data on individual antibiotic use. We used a transmission model to help explain this observed discrepancy. The model analysis suggests that both transmission and the rate of introduction of resistant bacteria into communities may contribute to the observed regional scale AR patterns, and that village-level antibiotic use rate determines which of these two factors predominate. While usually conceived as a main effect on individual risk, antibiotic use rate is revealed in this analysis as an effect modifier with regard to community-level risk of resistance.

Identifying Etiological Agents Causing Diarrhea in Low Income Ecuadorian Communities

Continued success in decreasing diarrheal disease burden requires targeted interventions. To develop such interventions, it is crucial to understand which pathogens cause diarrhea. Using a case-control design we tested stool samples, collected in both rural and urban Ecuador, for 15 pathogenic microorganisms. Pathogens were present in 51% of case and 27% of control samples from the urban community, and 62% of case and 18% of control samples collected from the rural community. Rotavirus and Shigellae were associated with diarrhea in the urban community; co-infections were more pathogenic than single infection; Campylobacter and Entamoeba histolytica were found in large numbers in cases and controls; and non-typhi Salmonella and enteropathogenic Escherichia coli were not found in any samples. Consistent with the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, focused in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, we found that in Ecuador a small group of pathogens accounted for a significant amount of the diarrheal disease burden.

Raising the Level of Analysis of Food-Borne Outbreaks: Food-Sharing Networks in Rural Coastal Ecuador

Objectives: Consuming contaminated food is a well-documented individual-level risk factor for diarrheal disease. The sharing of food also influences the distribution of diarrheal disease risk through a community and region. Understanding this social process at a population level is therefore an important dimension of risk not captured by standard individual-level analyses. We examined social networks related to food-sharing in rural villages at 2 scales: within a village, examining whether connections within these networks clustered or were uniformly spread; and among villages, looking at whether food-sharing networks differed according to the villages remoteness from a population center. Methods: We surveyed 2129 individuals aged 13 years and older in 2003–2004, within a representative (block-randomized) sample of 21 rural villages in Esmeraldas province, northern coastal Ecuador. We calculated degree (number of social contacts) for a social network defined by sharing food. Results: Networks of households sharing food differ according to remoteness from a metropolitan center. On average, residents living in “far villages” had 2 more social contacts than those in “close villages,” and 12 more years of residence in their village. Estimates of transmissibility (a measure of outbreak potential) based on network structure varied as much as 2-fold across these villages. Conclusions: Food-sharing practices link particular households in rural villages and have implications for the spread of food-borne pathogens. The food-sharing networks in remote rural villages are heterogeneous and clustered, consistent with contemporary theories about disease transmitters. Network-based measures may offer tools for predicting patterns of disease outbreaks, as well as guidance for interventions.