William Cochrane

The Spatial Impact of Local Infrastructural Investment in New Zealand

In this paper we estimate the impact of local authority infrastructure spending in New Zealand using spatial econometric modelling, with the infrastructure spending itself endogenously determined. Utilizing data from the New Zealand Census and Local Authorities Finance data (1991-2008), aggregated to functional labour market areas, we formulate a simultaneous equations growth model of real income, population, land rent and public infrastructure investment. Estimation is conducted using a spatial 3SLS procedure. We find that an increase in local infrastructure spending increases population growth, real income and land values, but is itself endogenous and spatially correlated.

Alcohol outlet density and violence: A geographically weighted regression approach

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS We investigate the relationship between outlet density (of different types) and violence (as measured by police activity) across the North Island of New Zealand, specifically looking at whether the relationships vary spatially. DESIGN AND METHODS We use New Zealand data at the census area unit (approximately suburb) level, on police-attended violent incidents and outlet density (by type of outlet), controlling for population density and local social deprivation. We employed geographically weighted regression to obtain both global average and locally specific estimates of the relationships between alcohol outlet density and violence. RESULT We find that bar and night club density, and licensed club density (e.g. sports clubs) have statistically significant and positive relationships with violence, with an additional bar or night club is associated with nearly 5.3 additional violent events per year, and an additional licensed club associated with 0.8 additional violent events per year. These relationships do not show significant spatial variation. In contrast, the effects of off-licence density and restaurant/café density do exhibit significant spatial variation. However, the non-varying effects of bar and night club density are larger than the locally specific effects of other outlet types. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The relationships between outlet density and violence vary significantly across space for off-licences and restaurants/cafés. These results suggest that in order to minimise alcohol-related harms, such as violence, locally specific policy interventions are likely to be necessary. [Cameron MP, Cochrane W, Gordon C, Livingston M. Alcohol outlet density and violence: A geographically weighted regression approach. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:280-288].

Alcohol outlet density is related to police events and motor vehicle accidents in Manukau City, New Zealand

Objectives: To explore the cross‐sectional association between alcohol outlet density and police events in Manukau City, New Zealand.

Spatial Impacts of Endogenously Determined Infrastructure Investment

We address three questions: Do infrastructure investments impact on local incomes, population and land values? Do these effects spill over into neighbouring regions? Is infrastructure investment a response to local developments? We outline a theoretical framework and estimate a simultaneous equation growth model of infrastructure investment, real incomes, population and land values. The model, estimated by spatial three-stage least squares, uses New Zealand functional labour market panel data. We find that infrastructure investment increases population and incomes, but is itself endogenously determined and subject to positive spatial spillovers. Thus a self-reinforcing cycle exists between local incomes and infrastructure investment.