William Colgan

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900–1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983–2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003–2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Reconstruction. Part III: Marine Ice Loss and Total Mass Balance (1840–2010)

AbstractGreenland ice sheet mass loss to the marine environment occurs by some combination of iceberg calving and underwater melting (referred to here as marine ice loss, LM). This study quantifies the relation between LM and meltwater runoff (R) at the ice sheet scale. A theoretical basis is presented explaining how variability in R can be expected to govern much of the LM variability over annual to decadal time scales. It is found that R enhances LM through three processes: 1) increased glacier discharge by ice warming–softening and basal lubrication–sliding; 2) increased calving susceptibility through undercutting glacier front geometry and reducing ice integrity; and 3) increased underwater melting from forcing marine convection. Applying a semiempirical LM f(R) parameterization to a surface mass balance reconstruction enables total ice sheet mass budget closure over the 1840–2010 period. The estimated cumulative 171-yr net ice sheet sea level contribution is 25 ± 10 mm, the rise punctuated by periods...

Assessing the summer water budget of a moulin basin in the Sermeq Avannarleq ablation region, Greenland ice sheet

We provide an assessment of the supraglacial water budget of a moulin basin on the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet for 15 days in August 2009. Meltwater production, the dominant input term to the 1.14 0.06 km basin, was determined from in situ ablation measurements. The dominant water-output terms from the basin, accounting for 52% and 48% of output, respectively, were moulin discharge and drainage into crevasses. Moulin discharge exhibits large diurnal variability (0.017–0.54m s) with a distinct late-afternoon peak at 16:45 local time. This lags peak meltwater production by 2.8 4.2 hours. An Extreme Ice Survey time-lapse photography sequence complements the observations of moulin discharge. We infer, from in situ observations of moulin geometry, previously published borehole water heights and estimates of the temporal lag between meltwater production and observed local ice surface uplift (‘jacking’), that the transfer of surface meltwater to the englacial water table via moulins is nearly instantaneous (<30min). We employ a simple crevasse mass-balance model to demonstrate that crevasse drainage could significantly dampen the surface meltwater fluctuations reaching the englacial system in comparison to moulin discharge. Thus, unlike crevasses, moulins propagate meltwater pulses to the englacial system that are capable of overwhelming subglacial transmission capacity, resulting in enhanced basal sliding.

The implication of nonradiative energy fluxes dominating Greenland ice sheet exceptional ablation area surface melt in 2012

During two exceptionally large July 2012 multiday Greenland ice sheet melt episodes, nonradiative energy fluxes (sensible, latent, rain, and subsurface collectively) dominated the ablation area surface energy budget of the southern and western ice sheet. On average the nonradiative energy fluxes contributed up to 76% of daily melt energy at nine automatic weather station sites in Greenland. Comprising 6% of the ablation period, these powerful melt episodes resulted in 12–15% of the south and west Greenland automatic weather station annual ablation totals. Analysis of high resolution (~5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model output indicates widespread dominance of nonradiative energy fluxes across the western ablation area during these episodes. Yet HIRHAM5 still underestimates melt by up to 56% during these episodes due to a systematic underestimation of turbulent energy fluxes typical of regional climate models. This has implications for underestimating future melt, when exceptional melt episodes are expected to occur more frequently.

Glacier crevasses: Observations, models, and mass balance implications

We review the findings of approximately 60 years of in situ and remote sensing studies of glacier crevasses, as well as the three broad classes of numerical models now employed to simulate crevasse fracture. The relatively new insight that mixed-mode fracture in local stress equilibrium, rather than downstream advection alone, can introduce nontrivial curvature to crevasse geometry may merit the reinterpretation of some key historical observation studies. In the past three decades, there have been tremendous advances in the spatial resolution of satellite imagery, as well as fully automated algorithms capable of tracking crevasse displacements between repeat images. Despite considerable advances in developing fully transient three-dimensional ice flow models over the past two decades, both the zero stress and linear elastic fracture mechanics crevasse models have remained fundamentally unchanged over this time. In the past decade, however, multidimensional and transient formulations of the continuum damage mechanics approach to simulating ice fracture have emerged. The combination of employing damage mechanics to represent slow upstream deterioration of ice strength and fracture mechanics to represent rapid failure at downstream termini holds promise for implementation in large-scale ice sheet models. Finally, given the broad interest in the sea level rise implications of recent and future cryospheric change, we provide a synthesis of 10 mechanisms by which crevasses can influence glacier mass balance.

A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet to better constrain this state. Existing inferences include outputs from the eight thermomechanical ice-flow models included in the SeaRISE effort. New remote-sensing inferences of the basal thermal state are derived from Holocene radiostratigraphy, modern surface velocity and MODIS imagery. Both thermomechanical modeling and remote inferences generally agree that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and large portions of the southwestern ice-drainage systems are thawed at the bed, whereas the bed beneath the central ice divides, particularly their west-facing slopes, is frozen. Elsewhere, there is poor agreement regarding the basal thermal state. Both models and remote inferences rarely represent the borehole-observed basal thermal state accurately near NorthGRIP and DYE-3. This synthesis identifies a large portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (about one third by area) where additional observations would most improve knowledge of its overall basal thermal state.

Greenland high-elevation mass balance: inference and implication of reference period (1961–90) imbalance

Abstract We revisit the input–output mass budget of the high-elevation region of the Greenland ice sheet evaluated by the Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA). Our revised reference period (1961–90) mass balance of 54±48 Gt a–1 is substantially greater than the 0±21 Gt a–1 assessed by PARCA, but consistent with a recent, fully independent, input–output estimate of high-elevation mass balance (41±61 Gt a–1). Together these estimates infer a reference period high-elevation specific mass balance of 4.8±5.4 cm w.e. a–1. The probability density function (PDF) associated with this combined input–output estimate infers an 81% likelihood of high-elevation specific mass balance being positive (>0 cm w.e. a–1) during the reference period, and a 70% likelihood that specific balance was >2 cm w.e. a–1. Given that reference period accumulation is characteristic of centurial and millennial means, and that in situ mass-balance observations exhibit a dependence on surface slope rather than surface mass balance, we suggest that millennial-scale ice dynamics are the primary driver of subtle reference period high-elevation mass gain. Failure to acknowledge subtle reference period dynamic mass gain can result in underestimating recent dynamic mass loss by ~17%, and recent total Greenland mass loss by ~7%.

Is the high-elevation region of Devon Ice Cap thickening?

Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada, has been losing mass since at least 1960. Laser-altimetry surveys, however, suggest that the high-elevation region (>1200m) of the ice cap thickened between 1995 and 2000, perhaps because of anomalously high accumulation rates during this period. We derive an independent estimate of thickness change in this region by comparing ∼40 year mean annual net accumulation rates to mean specific outflow rates for 11 drainage basins. The area-averaged rate of thickness change across the whole region is within error of zero (0.01 ±0.12m w.e.a -1 ), but two drainage basins in the northwest are thickening significantly, and two basins in the south are thinning significantly. The laser-altimetry observations are biased towards the drainage basins where we find thickening. Recent changes in the rate of accumulation or the rate of firnification cannot explain the observed thickening, but decreased ice outflow, due to the penetration of Neoglacial cooling to, and subsequent stiffening of, the basal ice, may provide an explanation. Thinning in the south may result from increased ice outflow from basins in which fast flow and basal sliding extend above 1200 m.

Holocene deceleration of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Keeping a stiff upper layer The interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet is growing thicker, in contrast to the thinning that is occurring at its edges. Why? MacGregor et al. conclude that more snow is accumulating and that the ice in the interior is flowing more slowly than it did thousands of years ago (see the Perspective by Hvidberg). During the last glacial period, higher rates of atmospheric dust deposition produced softer ice, which flowed more readily than cleaner ice. During most of the Holocene, though, atmospheric dust concentrations were lower, and the less-dusty ice that formed was stiffer, meaning it did not flow or thin so rapidly. Thus, the thickening seen today in the central regions of Greenland is partly a response to changes in ice rheology that occurred thousands of years ago. Science, this issue p. 590; see also p. 562 Stiffer ice means slower flow and less rapid thinning in the center of Greenland than in the past. [Also see Perspective by Hvidberg] Recent peripheral thinning of the Greenland Ice Sheet is partly offset by interior thickening and is overprinted on its poorly constrained Holocene evolution. On the basis of the ice sheet’s radiostratigraphy, ice flow in its interior is slower now than the average speed over the past nine millennia. Generally higher Holocene accumulation rates relative to modern estimates can only partially explain this millennial-scale deceleration. The ice sheet’s dynamic response to the decreasing proportion of softer ice from the last glacial period and the deglacial collapse of the ice bridge across Nares Strait also contributed to this pattern. Thus, recent interior thickening of the Greenland Ice Sheet is partly an ongoing dynamic response to the last deglaciation that is large enough to affect interpretation of its mass balance from altimetry.

Combined oceanic and atmospheric influences on net accumulation on Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada

An annual net accumulation history of the high-elevation region of Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada, was reconstructed for the period 1963-2003 using five shallow firn cores. Annual net accumulation decreased significantly after 1989. To explain variability in the reconstructed annual net accumulation record, monthly and seasonal moisture-source probabilities were calculated for gridcells throughout the Arctic during 1979-2003. Seasonally, moisture-source probabilities reach a maximum in northern Baffin Bay in late summer/early fall and approach zero throughout the Arctic in winter. Late- summer/early-fall moisture-source probabilities were significantly higher around the North Open Water (NOW) Polynya during the 4 year period of highest annual net accumulation during the 1979-2003 period (1984-87), than during the 4 year period with the lowest annual net accumulation (1994-97). This is due to both a significant decrease in the sea-ice fraction and a significant increase in low- elevation atmospheric transport over the NOW area during the high net accumulation period. Anomalously low net accumulation and anomalously high firnification rates during the 1989-2003 period suggest that a change in ice dynamics, rather than a change in surface mass balance, may explain recent ice-cap thickening observed by laser altimetry.