William E. Even

The Decline of Private-Sector Unionism and the Gender Wage Gap.

Between 1973 and 1988, private-sector unionism fell by 9.5 percentage points more for men than women, and the gender wage gap (one minus the ratio of female to male wages) decreased by.09. These trends support two findings: First, unionism fell more slowly for women primarily because the probability of unionism fell most rapidly in jobs dominated by males. Second, the greater decline in unionism among males is responsible for approximately one-seventh of the.09 decline in the gender wage gap.

Plant size and the decline of unionism

Abstract Declining plant size is shown to explain a significant portion of the recent decline in unionism, particularly in manufacturing. The paper also shows how to use the probit model to decompose the change in unionism into explained and unexplained components.

Career Interruptions Following Childbirth

The aggregate probability of ending a career interruption that begins at childbirth is shown to diminish rapidly with the length of the interruption. The empirical models estimated suggest that the decline can be explained by a combination of structural duration dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and differences in observed characteristics. The probability of returning to employment for a group of women with identical observed characteristics is found to have an L-shaped distribution for the majority of the sample, suggesting that many women have a very low probability of returning.

Employer Size and Labor Turnover: The Role of Pensions:

The well-documented lower labor turnover in large firms than in smaller firms has been cited as evidence that large firms pay workers above their opportunity wage. This study investigates whether the relationship between firm size and turnover can instead be accounted for in part by size-related differences in the availability, portability, or generosity of pension plans. Analyzing extensive data for the years 1973–93, the authors find that pension coverage was associated with a greater reduction in worker turnover in large firms than in small firms. They also find that when appropriate controls for worker characteristics are employed, there is virtually no association between firm size and labor turnover for workers not covered by a pension.

Why Did Male Pension Coverage Decline in the 1980s

This analysis of 1979 and 1988 May Current Population Survey data suggests explanations for why male pension coverage declined during the 1980s, and why the decline was particularly pronounced among young workers. During the 1980s, employment shifted toward jobs with lower pension coverage, and this shift was more pronounced among young workers than among older workers. More important than the reduction in the percentage of workers offered pensions, however, was reduced participation in pension plans. One factor contributing importantly to declining participation rates was the growing share of pensions that were 401 (k) plans; under such plans, participation is more voluntary than it is under other plans, and young workers are more likely than older workers to decline to participate.

The Gender Gap in Pensions and Wages

This study provides rationale for the underrepresentation of women in the pension sector and examines the consequences for the gender wage gap. For a given set of observed characteristics, a woman is 11-19 percent less likely than a man to have a pension. Of the unexplained portion of the gender wage gap, 10-38 percent is due to unexplained differences in pension coverage. Finally, consistent with a screening effect of pensions, women are paid more equally in the pension sector. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.

Gender Differences in Pensions.

The causes of gender differences in pensions are examined for retirees and employees using the 1982 Newly Entitled Beneficiary Survey, and the 1979 and 1988 May Current Population Surveys. For both retirees and the employed population, much of the gender gap in coverage is accounted for by gender differences in labor market characteristics. While children and marriage have a negative effect on female coverage among retirees even after controlling for labor market characteristics, the negative effect is not observed among more recent groups of female employees. Finally, recent convergence of male and female labor market characteristics contributed to a decline in the coverage gap during the 1980s.

Testing efficiency in gambling markets

Two statistical tests are common for testing the efficiency market hypothesis (EMH) in gambling markets. One test is based on the idea that betting lines should be unbiased predictors of actual game outcomes. An alternative test is (in the absence of vigorish) whether there is a 0.5 probability of winning a bet. This article demonstrates that these two tests are not identical, and that the second test is a more useful test. Both test are applied to data from the 1988 NFL football season for both the Las Vegas betting line and the over-and-under line for pre-season, regular season and post-season games. The unbiased predictor test rejects the EMH for pre-season games. The 0.5 test is unable to reject the EMH for both betting lines and all sets of games.

When Will the Gender Gap in Retirement Income Narrow

Among recent retirees, women receive substantially less retirement income from Social Security and private pensions than men. Increases in womens labor market attachment and earnings relative to men over the past 50 years provide some optimism for an improvement in female retirement income, particularly for married women. This study shows that womens income from Social Security and private pensions has improved only slightly relative to men over the past 25 years. Using data on people approaching retirement age over the next 20 years, prospects for future improvement are investigated. One of the main conclusions is that pension income among women (particularly married women) will rise sharply relative to mens over the next few decades, but a substantial gap could remain even if women close the gap in experience and salaries.

'Who's on first': an empirical test of the Coase Theorem in baseball

Because of their highly developed skills, major league baseball players generate significant economic rents. According to the ‘weak version’ of the Coase theorem, the allocation of these players is independent of who controls the rights to these rents, which depends on the rules governing competition in the baseball labour market. The rules of Major League Baseball establish a dual system. For senior players the market is competitive, and players have the right of ‘free agency,’ allowing them to attempt to contract with the team of their choice; for players with fewer years of experience the market is monopsonistic, and a players right to play baseball is owned by his current team. Consequently, we simultaneously observe two different allocations of property rights. Using individual player data for 1979 and 1980 we test whether baseball player movement is independent of the ownership of these rents. We estimate the wage (marginal revenue) determination process for free-agent and non free agent movers and non-movers. This permits us to generate expected gains from a move for both free-agent eligible and non free-agent eligible players. Coases theorem is tested by determining if both player types, and, hence, player allocation, are equally responsive to gains from migration.