William F. Lamb

Transitions in pathways of human development and carbon emissions

Radical emissions reductions require a new perspective on plausible outcomes of low-carbon development achievement. A narrow focus on income measures of national progress may be difficult to reconcile with deep emissions reductions, but a broader scope, measuring real development, reveals opportunities for sustainable transitions. In this paper, I highlight 20 countries achieving above 70 years of life expectancy, yet lower than 1 ton of carbon emissions per capita (?Goldemberg?s Corner?). To explore their relevance for other nations, the underlying drivers of carbon emissions are estimated, and their cross-nationaldistribution quantified using cluster analysis. Unlike previous studies, trade-corrected consumption based carbon emissions are used to account for potential carbon leakage between nations. Five clusters of countries are identified with varying patterns of drivers and highly differentiated outcomes of life expectancy and carbon emissions. Four clusters intersect within Goldembergs Corner, suggesting diverse combinations of drivers may still lead to sustainable outcomes, presenting many countries with an opportunity to follow a pathway towards low-carbon human development. By contrast, within Goldemberg?s Corner,there are no countries from the core, wealthy consuming nations. The results reaffirm a need to address economic inequalities within international agreements for climate mitigation, but acknowledge plausible and accessible examples of low-carbon human development for countries that share similar underlying drivers of carbon emissions.

A good life for all within planetary boundaries

Humanity faces the challenge of how to achieve a high quality of life for over 7 billion people without destabilizing critical planetary processes. Using indicators designed to measure a ‘safe and just’ development space, we quantify the resource use associated with meeting basic human needs, and compare this to downscaled planetary boundaries for over 150 nations. We find that no country meets basic needs for its citizens at a globally sustainable level of resource use. Physical needs such as nutrition, sanitation, access to electricity and the elimination of extreme poverty could likely be met for all people without transgressing planetary boundaries. However, the universal achievement of more qualitative goals (for example, high life satisfaction) would require a level of resource use that is 2–6 times the sustainable level, based on current relationships. Strategies to improve physical and social provisioning systems, with a focus on sufficiency and equity, have the potential to move nations towards sustainability, but the challenge remains substantial.Achieving a high quality of life within the biophysical limits of the planet is a significant challenge. This study quantifies the resource use associated with meeting basic human needs, compares it to downscaled planetary boundaries for over 150 nations and finds that no country meets its citizens’ basic needs sustainably.

Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change

Research on climate change mitigation tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions. A better understanding of demand-side solutions is missing. We propose a transdisciplinary approach to identify demand-side climate solutions, investigate their mitigation potential, detail policy measures and assess their implications for well-being.

Don’t deploy negative emissions technologies without ethical analysis

Climate policy advice is being undermined by value-laden choices over risky mitigation strategies, warn Dominic Lenzi and colleagues.Climate policy advice is being undermined by value-laden choices over risky mitigation strategies, warn Dominic Lenzi and colleagues.