William F. Morris

LONGEVITY CAN BUFFER PLANT AND ANIMAL POPULATIONS AGAINST CHANGING CLIMATIC VARIABILITY

Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate. We quantified responsiveness using elasticities of the long-term population growth rate predicted by stochastic projection matrix models. Short-lived species (insects and annual plants and algae) are predicted to be more strongly (and negatively) affected by increasing vital rate variability relative to longer-lived species (perennial plants, birds, ungulates). Taxonomic affiliation has little power to explain sensitivity to increasing variability once longevity has been taken into account. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of short-lived species to an increasingly variable climate, but also suggest that problems associated with short-lived undesirable species (agricultural pests, disease vectors, invasive weedy plants) may be exacerbated in regions where climate variability decreases.

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth’s climate warms. However, although many species’ ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species’ vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.

Direct and Interactive Effects of Enemies and Mutualists on Plant Performance: a Meta-Analysis

Plants engage in multiple, simultaneous interactions with other species; some (enemies) reduce and others (mutualists) enhance plant performance. Moreover, effects of different species may not be independent of one another; for example, enemies may compete, reducing their negative impact on a plant. The magnitudes of positive and negative effects, as well as the frequency of interactive effects and whether they tend to enhance or depress plant performance, have never been comprehensively assessed across the many published studies on plant-enemy and plant-mutualist interactions. We performed a meta-analysis of experiments in which two enemies, two mutualists, or an enemy and a mutualist were manipulated factorially. Specifically, we performed a factorial meta-analysis using the log response ratio. We found that the magnitude of (negative) enemy effects was greater than that of (positive) mutualist effects in isolation, but in the presence of other species, the two effects were of comparable magnitude. Hence studies evaluating single-species effects of mutualists may underestimate the true effects found in natural settings, where multiple interactions are the norm and indirect effects are possible. Enemies did not on average influence the effects on plant performance of other enemies, nor did mutualists influence the effects of mutualists. However, these averages mask significant and large, but positive or negative, interactions in individual studies. In contrast, mutualists ameliorated the negative effects of enemies in a manner that benefited plants; this overall effect was driven by interactions between pathogens and belowground mutualists (bacteria and mycorrhizal fungi). The high frequency of significant interactive effects suggests a widespread potential for diffuse rather than pairwise coevolutionary interactions between plants and their enemies and mutualists. Pollinators and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced plant performance more than did bacterial mutualists. In the greenhouse (but not the field), pathogens reduced plant performance more than did herbivores, pathogens were more damaging to herbaceous than to woody plants, and herbivores were more damaging to crop than to non-crop plants (suggesting evolutionary change in plants or herbivores following crop domestication). We discuss how observed differences in effect size might be confounded with methodological differences among studies.

CO2‐ENRICHMENT AND NUTRIENT AVAILABILITY ALTER ECTOMYCORRHIZAL FUNGAL COMMUNITIES

Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), a phylogenetically and physiologically diverse guild, form symbiotic associations with many trees and greatly enhance their uptake of nutrients and water. Elevated CO2, which increases plant carbon supply and demand for mineral nutrients, may change the composition of the EMF community, possibly altering nutrient uptake and ultimately forest productivity. To assess CO2 effects on EMF communities, we sampled mycorrhizae from the FACTS-I (Forest-Atmosphere Carbon Transfer and Storage) research site in Duke Forest, Orange County, North Carolina, USA, where Pinus taeda forest plots are maintained at either ambient or elevated CO2 (200 ppm above ambient) concentrations. Mycorrhizae were identified by DNA sequence similarity of the internal transcribed spacer ribosomal RNA gene region. EMF richness was very high; 72 distinct phylotypes were detected from 411 mycorrhizal samples. Overall EMF richness and diversity were not affected by elevated CO2, but increased CO2 concentrations altered the relative abundances of particular EMF taxa colonizing fine roots, increased prevalence of unique EMF species, and led to greater EMF community dissimilarity among individual study plots. Natural variation among plots in mean potential net nitrogen (N) mineralization rates was a key determinant of EMF community structure; increasing net N mineralization rate was negatively correlated with EMF richness and had differential effects on the abundance of particular EMF taxa. Our results predict that, at CO2 concentrations comparable to that predicted for the year 2050, EMF community composition and structure will change, but diversity will be maintained. In contrast, high soil N concentrations can negatively affect EMF diversity; this underscores the importance of considering CO2 effects on forest ecosystems in the context of background soil chemical parameters and other environmental perturbations such as acid deposition or fertilizer runoff.

How do plant ecologists use matrix population models

Matrix projection models are among the most widely used tools in plant ecology. However, the way in which plant ecologists use and interpret these models differs from the way in which they are presented in the broader academic literature. In contrast to calls from earlier reviews, most studies of plant populations are based on < 5 matrices and present simple metrics such as deterministic population growth rates. However, plant ecologists also cautioned against literal interpretation of model predictions. Although academic studies have emphasized testing quantitative model predictions, such forecasts are not the way in which plant ecologists find matrix models to be most useful. Improving forecasting ability would necessitate increased model complexity and longer studies. Therefore, in addition to longer term studies with better links to environmental drivers, priorities for research include critically evaluating relative/comparative uses of matrix models and asking how we can use many short-term studies to understand long-term population dynamics.

Buffering of Life Histories against Environmental Stochasticity: Accounting for a Spurious Correlation between the Variabilities of Vital Rates and Their Contributions to Fitness

Life‐history theory predicts vital rates that on average make large contributions to the annual multiplication rate of a lineage should be highly buffered against environmental variability. This prediction has been tested by looking for a negative correlation between the sensitivities (or elasticities) of the elements in a projection matrix and their variances (or coefficients of variation). Here, we show by constructing random matrices that a spurious negative correlation exists between the sensitivities and variances, and between the elasticities and coefficients of variation, of matrix elements. This spurious correlation arises in part because size transition probabilities, which are bounded by 0 and 1, have a limit to their variability that often does not apply to matrix elements representing reproduction. We advocate an alternative analysis based on the underlying vital rates (not the matrix elements) that accounts for the inherent limit to the variability of zero‐to‐one vital rates, corrects for sampling variation, and tests for a declining upper limit to variability as a vital rate’s fitness contribution increases. Applying this analysis to demographic data from five populations of the alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis, we provide evidence of stronger buffering in the vital rates that most influence fitness.

The Role of Lupine in Succession on Mount St. Helens: Facilitation or Inhibition?

The barren landscape created on the north side of Mount St. Helens (Wash- ington State, USA) by the 1980 eruption provides an excellent setting in which to examine the role of pioneer species in facilitating or inhibiting subsequent invaders in primary succession. We investigated the influence of Lupinus lepidus, a nitrogen-fixing pioneer species, on two invading species, Anaphalis margaritacea and Epilobium angustifolium. Seedlings of both invaders were initiated in the greenhouse and transplanted to four field treatments: (1) control (plots devoid of lupine), (2) live (plots with vigorous lupine), (3) mulch (lupines herbicided but left in place), and (4) no-mulch lupiness herbicided and dead aboveground biomass removed). Patches of L. lepidus exerted both facilitative and inhibitory effects on the other species. First season survivorship of seedlings planted into lupine patches was generally lower than that of seedlings planted into barren control plots. However, for both A. margaritacea and E. angustifolium, surviving seedlings within lupine patches grew larger than did controls. In addition, A. margaritacea seedlings had a much higher probability of flowering when planted within lupine patches. Comparisons among treatments indicated that both substrate alteration and the mulching effect of lupine litter mediated the effects of lupine patches on transplant performance. Our results show that both facilitation and inhibition occurred, but at different stages in the life cycle of invading species. Consequently, a complete demographic model may be needed in order to assess the net effect of a pioneer on its successors.

Ecological Dynamics of Mutualist/Antagonist Communities

One approach to understanding how mutualisms function in community settings is to model well‐studied pairwise interactions in the presence of the few species with which they interact most strongly. In nature, such species are often specialized antagonists of one or both mutualists. Hence, these models can also shed light on the problem of when and how mutualisms are able to persist in the face of exploitation. We used spatial stochastic simulations to model the ecological dynamics of obligate, species‐specific mutualisms between plants and pollinating seed parasite insects (e.g., yuccas and yucca moths) in the presence of one of two obligate antagonist species: flower‐feeding insects (florivores) or insects that parasitize seeds but fail to pollinate (exploiters). Our results suggest that mutualisms can persist surprisingly well in the presence of highly specialized antagonists but that they exhibit distinctly different temporal and spatial dynamics when antagonists are present. In our models, antagonists tend to induce oscillations in the mutualist populations. As the number of per capita visits by antagonists increase, the system’s oscillatory dynamics become more extreme, finally leading to the extinction of one or more of the three species. When the antagonists exhibit high per capita visitation frequencies and long dispersal distances, significant spatial patchiness emerges within these tripartite interactions. We found surprisingly little difference between the ecological effects of florivores and exploiters, although in general florivores tended to drive themselves (and sometimes the mutualists) to extinction at parameter values at which the exploiters were able to persist. These theoretical results suggest several testable hypotheses regarding the ecological and evolutionary persistence of mutualisms. More broadly, they point to the critical importance of studying the dynamics of pairwise interactions in community contexts.

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.

Aging in the Natural World: Comparative Data Reveal Similar Mortality Patterns Across Primates

Aging patterns in humans fall within the parameters of other primates in natural populations. Human senescence patterns—late onset of mortality increase, slow mortality acceleration, and exceptional longevity—are often described as unique in the animal world. Using an individual-based data set from longitudinal studies of wild populations of seven primate species, we show that contrary to assumptions of human uniqueness, human senescence falls within the primate continuum of aging; the tendency for males to have shorter life spans and higher age-specific mortality than females throughout much of adulthood is a common feature in many, but not all, primates; and the aging profiles of primate species do not reflect phylogenetic position. These findings suggest that mortality patterns in primates are shaped by local selective forces rather than phylogenetic history.