William G. Manley

Systems modeling in support of evidence-based disaster planning for rural areas

Abstract The objective of this communication is to introduce a conceptual framework for a study that applies a rigorous systems approach to rural disaster preparedness and planning. System Dynamics is a well-established computer-based simulation modeling methodology for analyzing complex social systems that are difficult to change and predict. This approach has been applied for decades to a wide variety of issues of healthcare and other types of service capacity and delivery, and more recently, to some issues of disaster planning and mitigation. The study will use the System Dynamics approach to create computer simulation models as “what-if” tools for disaster preparedness planners. We have recently applied the approach to the issue of hospital surge capacity, and have reached some preliminary conclusions – for example, on the question of where in the hospital to place supplementary nursing staff during a severe infectious disease outbreak—some of which we had not expected. Other hospital disaster preparedness issues well suited to System Dynamics analysis include sustaining employee competence and reducing turnover, coordination of medical care and public health resources, and hospital coordination with the wider community to address mass casualties. The approach may also be applied to preparedness issues for agencies other than hospitals, and could help to improve the interactions among all agencies represented in a communitys local emergency planning committee. The simulation models will support an evidence-based approach to rural disaster planning, helping to tie empirical data to decision-making. Disaster planners will be able to simulate a wide variety of scenarios, learn responses to each and develop principles or best practices that apply to a broad spectrum of disaster scenarios. These skills and insights would improve public health practice and be of particular use in the promotion of injury and disease prevention programs and practices.

Screening and brief intervention for alcohol problems among college students treated in a university hospital emergency department.

Abstract The authors evaluated a protocol to screen and provide brief interventions for alcohol problems to college students treated at a university hospital emergency department (ED). Of 2,372 drinkers they approached, 87% gave informed consent. Of those, 54% screened positive for alcohol problems (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score < 6). One half to two thirds of the students who screened positive drank 2 to 3 times a week, drank 7 or more drinks per typical drinking day, or had experienced alcohol dependence symptoms within the past year. Ninety-six percent of screen-positive students accepted counseling during their ED visit. Three quarters of those questioned at 3-month follow-up reported that counseling had been helpful and that they had decreased their alcohol consumption. The prevalence of alcohol problems, high rates of informed consent and acceptance of counseling, and improved outcomes suggest that the ED is an appropriate venue for engaging students at high risk for alcohol problems.

Realities of rural emergency medical services disaster preparedness

INTRODUCTION Disaster preparedness is an area of major concern for the medical community that has been reinforced by recent world events. The emergency healthcare system must respond to all types of disasters, whether the incidents occur in urban or rural settings. Although the barriers and challenges are different in the rural setting, common areas of preparedness must be explored. PROBLEM This study sought to answer several questions, including: (1) What are rural emergency medical services (EMS) organizations training for, compared to what they actually have seen during the last two years?; (2) What scale and types of events do they believe they are prepared to cope with?; and (3) What do they feel are priority areas for training and preparedness? METHODS Data were gathered through a multi-region survey of 1801 EMS organizations in the US to describe EMS response experiences during specific incidents as well as the frequency with which these events occur. Respondents were asked a number of questions about local priorities. RESULTS A total of 768 completed surveys were returned (43%). Over the past few years, training for commonly occurring types of crises and emergencies has declined in favor of terrorism preparedness. Many rural EMS organizations reported that events with 10 or fewer victims would overload them. Low priority was placed on interacting with other non-EMS disaster response agencies, and high priority was placed on basic staff training and retention. CONCLUSION Maintaining viable, rural, emergency response capabilities and developing a community-wide response to natural or man-made events is crucial to mitigate long-term effects of disasters on a local healthcare system. The assessment of preparedness activities accomplished in this study will help to identify common themes to better prioritize preparedness activities and maximize the response capabilities of an EMS organization.