William H. Davis

What Will Probably Cause Your Death

H AVING reached any given age, what is the probability that a person will die of cancer? the probability that he will die of heart disease, etc.? These are questions of real interest to every woman and man. In the tables given, at specified ages, the per cent probabilities of dying eventually of certain specified causes of death. Epidemic or Endemic Diseases-The probability of a white male dying of such a cause ranges from 4.9 per cent at birth to 2.5 at ages 50 to 60 years, and is 3.0 per cent at age 90. The corresponding probabilities for white females are fractionally higher throughout life but still closely parallel the male probabilities, ranging from 5.3 at birth to 3.0 at ages 50 to 60 years and to 3.3 at age 90.. For the colored, the percentages range from 7.2 for colored females at birth to 3.9 for colored males aged 50, 60 and 90 years. Tuberculosis-For white males at birth, the probability figure is 6 per cent and the highest probability of dying of this disease (6.7 per cent) appears at age 15, after which there is a continuous decline until at age 90 the figure is 0.2 per cent; for white females at birth the figure is 5.7 and the highest probability is at ages 1 to 15 (6.1 per cent), followed by a continuous decline to 0.2 per cent at age 90. For colored males, the figure at birth is 11.4 and the highest probability, 13.0, appears for children 5 and 10, after which the trend is downward to 0.7 per cent at age 90, the probability figures at each age, however, always being much higher than those for white males of the same age; for colored females at birth the figure is 12.3 and the highest probability, 13.8, is for children aged 5 years after which there is a downward trend to 0.5 per cent at age 90, the probability figures at each age being much higher than for white females of the same age. Cancer-For white males at birth the figure is 7.6 and the highest probability is at age 50 (10.1 per cent). After that age the figures steadily decline to 3.4 per cent at age 90; for white females at birth the figure is 10.6 and the highest probability figure is at age 40 (13.1 per cent) after which the trend is downward to 3.8 per cent at age 90. For colored males the figure at birth is 2.5 and the highest proba-