William J. Skirving

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Reserve design for uncertain responses of coral reefs to climate change

Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.

Comment on “Coral reef calcification and climate change: The effect of ocean warming”

McNeil et al. [2004] attempt to address an important question about the interactions of temperature and carbonate chemistry on calcification, but their projected values of reef calcification are based on assumptions that ignore critical observational and experimental literature. Certainly, more research is needed to better understand how changing temperatures and carbonate chemistry will affect not only coral reef calcification, but coral survival. As discussed above, the McNeil et al. [2004] analysis is based on assumptions that exclude potentially important factors and therefore needs to be viewed with caution. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Summer Hot Snaps and Winter Conditions: Modelling White Syndrome Outbreaks on Great Barrier Reef Corals

Coral reefs are under increasing pressure in a changing climate, one such threat being more frequent and destructive outbreaks of coral diseases. Thermal stress from rising temperatures has been implicated as a causal factor in disease outbreaks observed on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and elsewhere in the world. Here, we examine seasonal effects of satellite-derived temperature on the abundance of coral diseases known as white syndromes on the Great Barrier Reef, considering both warm stress during summer and deviations from mean temperatures during the preceding winter. We found a high correlation (r2 = 0.953) between summer warm thermal anomalies (Hot Snap) and disease abundance during outbreak events. Inclusion of thermal conditions during the preceding winter revealed that a significant reduction in disease outbreaks occurred following especially cold winters (Cold Snap), potentially related to a reduction in pathogen loading. Furthermore, mild winters (i.e., neither excessively cool nor warm) frequently preceded disease outbreaks. In contrast, disease outbreaks did not typically occur following warm winters, potentially because of increased disease resistance of the coral host. Understanding the balance between the effects of warm and cold winters on disease outbreak will be important in a warming climate. Combining the influence of winter and summer thermal effects resulted in an algorithm that yields both a Seasonal Outlook of disease risk at the conclusion of winter and near real-time monitoring of Outbreak Risk during summer. This satellite-derived system can provide coral reef managers with an assessment of risk three-to-six months in advance of the summer season that can then be refined using near-real-time summer observations. This system can enhance the capacity of managers to prepare for and respond to possible disease outbreaks and focus research efforts to increase understanding of environmental impacts on coral disease in this era of rapidly changing climate.

Seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of recent sea surface temperature trends in the Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico

Recent changes in ocean temperature have impacted marine ecosystem function globally. Nevertheless, the responses have depended upon the rate of change of temperature and the season when the changes occur, which are spatially variable. A rigorous statistical analysis of sea surface temperature observations over 25 years was used to examine spatial variability in overall and seasonal temperature trends within the wider Caribbean. The basin has experienced high spatial variability in rates of change of temperature. Most of the warming has been due to increases in summer rather than winter temperatures. However, warming was faster in winter in the Loop Current area and the south-eastern Caribbean, where the annual temperature ranges have contracted. Waters off Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas had a tendency towards cooling in winter, increasing the amplitude of annual temperature ranges. These detailed patterns can be used to elucidate ecological responses to climatic change in the region.

Sea-surface temperature and thermal stress in the Coral Triangle over the past two decades

Increasing ocean temperature has become one of the major concerns in recent times with reports of various related ecological impacts becoming commonplace. One of the more notable is the increased frequency of mass coral bleaching worldwide. This study focuses on the Coral Triangle region and utilizes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Coral Reef Watch (NOAA-CRW) satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) products to investigate changes in the thermal regime of the Coral Triangle waters between 1985 and 2006. Results show an upward trend in SST during this period with an average rate of 0.2°C/decade. However, warming within this region is not uniform, and the waters of the northern and eastern parts of the Coral Triangle are warming fastest. Areas in the eastern part have experienced more thermal stress events, and these stress events appear to be more likely during a La Niña.

Mesoscale circulation features of the great barrier reef region inferred from NOAA satellite imagery

Abstract The commissioning of a NOAA satellite receiving station at Townsville in North Queensland in 1988 greatly expanded the A VHRR coverage of the northeast Australian region to include the entire Great Barrier Reef system and marginal seas. Selected imagery from this and a southern station installed previously at Aspendale, Victoria provide a valuable new perspective on oceanographic phenomena occurring in this ecologically significant region. This perspective could not be attained using conventional ship-board and in situ oceanographic sampling techniques. A rich spectrum of mesoscale oceanographic features is revealed in the analyzed imagery, and various features such as western boundary current meanders, frontal shear waves, eddies, and jets are described. The temporal and spatial variability of these features appears strongly linked to that of the larger-scale Coral Sea current circulation. Several of the features identified are unique to the region; others resemble features observed in other western boundary current systems, but are significantly modified by the complex regional topography, and by the presence of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Evidence has been found for a number of processes which have significant implications for the origin and maintenance of GBR ecosystems, including shelf edge exchange processes, stratified slope water intrusions onto the shelf, and boundary layer mixing around reefs. Such processes provide a mechanism for injection of cool nutrient-rich waters into the reef matrix. The imagery provides a clear picture of a well-organized, but spatially complex, frontal system existing in the southern Coral Sea, which is associated with enhanced commercial and recreational fishing activity in the region. The AVHRR imagery has thus proven to be a valuable tool for spatial mapping of oceanographic features throughout the GBR region, for hypothesis formation in dynamical and modeling studies, and for ship-board reconnaissance operations.

Reef-Scale Thermal Stress Monitoring of Coral Ecosystems: New 5-km Global Products from NOAA Coral Reef Watch

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) program has developed a daily global 5-km product suite based on satellite observations to monitor thermal stress on coral reefs. These products fulfill requests from coral reef managers and researchers for higher resolution products by taking advantage of new satellites, sensors and algorithms. Improvements of the 5-km products over CRW’s heritage global 50-km products are derived from: (1) the higher resolution and greater data density of NOAA’s next-generation operational daily global 5-km geo-polar blended sea surface temperature (SST) analysis; and (2) implementation of a new SST climatology derived from the Pathfinder SST climate data record. The new products increase near-shore coverage and now allow direct monitoring of 95% of coral reefs and significantly reduce data gaps caused by cloud cover. The 5-km product suite includes SST Anomaly, Coral Bleaching HotSpots, Degree Heating Weeks and Bleaching Alert Area, matching existing CRW products. When compared with the 50-km products and in situ bleaching observations for 2013–2014, the 5-km products identified known thermal stress events and matched bleaching observations. These near reef-scale products significantly advance the ability of coral reef researchers and managers to monitor coral thermal stress in near-real-time.

The hydrodynamics of a bleaching event: implications for management and monitoring

This chapter examines the hydrodynamic conditions that are present during a coral bleaching event. Meteorological and climate parameters and influences are discussed. The physics of mixing and its influence on the horizontal and vertical variations of sea temperature are examined. A specialized hydrodynamic model for Palau is then presented as a case study to demonstrate the utility of these models for understanding spatial variations during bleaching events. This case study along with the other sections of this chapter provide the foundation for concluding that hydrodynamic modeling can provide us with a relatively accurate glimpse of the spatial variation of thermal stress and, therefore, what future stress events may hold for corals. Although the timing of a coral bleaching event is unknown and cannot be predicted with current technology, the relative patterns of sea surface temperature during individual bleaching events can be predicted using current modeling techniques. However, improvements in our understanding of coral physiology and higher spatial-resolution climate models are necessary before the full potential of these predictions can be utilized in management decisions.

Coral reef ecosystems under climate change and ocean acidification

Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40 – 150 m), “mesophotic” (low light) coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases) yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2000 m or more, the so-called ‘cold-water’ coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5) are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040-2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes ‘necessary but not sufficient’ evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of other services from coral reefs. Unless rapid advances to the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement occur over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people are likely to face increasing amounts of poverty and social disruption, and, in some cases, regional insecurity.