William Landuyt

The vertical distribution of black carbon in CMIP5 models: Comparison to observations and the importance of convective transport

Large uncertainty in the direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) exists, with published estimates ranging from 0.25 to 0.9 W m−2. A significant source of this uncertainty relates to the vertical distribution of BC, particularly relative to cloud layers. We first compare the vertical distribution of BC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to aircraft measurements and find that models tend to overestimate upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UT/LS) BC, particularly over the central Pacific from Hiaper Pole-to-Pole Observations Flight 1 (HIPPO1). However, CMIP5 generally underestimates Arctic BC from the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites campaign, implying a geographically dependent bias. Factors controlling the vertical distribution of BC in CMIP5 models, such as wet and dry deposition, precipitation, and convective mass flux (MC), are subsequently investigated. We also perform a series of sensitivity experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, including prescribed meteorology, enhanced vertical resolution, and altered convective wet scavenging efficiency and deep convection. We find that convective mass flux has opposing effects on the amount of black carbon in the atmosphere. More MC is associated with more convective precipitation, enhanced wet removal, and less BC below 500 hPa. However, more MC, particularly above 500 hPa, yield more BC aloft due to enhanced convective lofting. These relationships—particularly MC versus BC below 500 hPa—are generally stronger in the tropics. Compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, most CMIP5 models overestimate MC, with all models overestimating MC above 500 hPa. Our results suggest that excessive convective transport is one of the reasons for CMIP5 overestimation of UT/LS BC.

The interplay between bioenergy grass production and water resources in the United States of America.

We apply a land surface model to evaluate the interplay between potential bioenergy grass (Miscanthus, Cave-in-Rock, and Alamo) production, water quantity, and nitrogen leaching (NL) in the Central and Eastern U.S. Water use intensity tends to be lower where grass yields are modeled to be high, for example in the Midwest for Miscanthus and Cave-in-Rock and the upper southeastern U.S. for Alamo. However, most of these regions are already occupied by crops and forests and substitution of these biome types for ethanol production implies trade-offs. In general, growing Miscanthus consumes more water, Alamo consumes less water, and Cave-in-Rock consumes approximately the same amount of water as existing vegetation. Bioenergy grasses can maintain high productivity over time, even in water limited regions, because their roots can grow deeper and extract the water from the deep, moist soil layers. However, this may not hold where there are frequent and intense drought events, particularly in regions with shallow soil depths. One advantage of bioenergy grasses is that they mitigate nitrogen leaching relative to row crops and herbaceous plants when grown without applying N fertilizer; and bioenergy grasses, especially Miscanthus, generally require less N fertilizer application than row crops and herbaceous plants.