William N. Evans

Measuring Peer Group Effects: A Study of Teenage Behavior

Individuals or households often have some scope for choice of peer groups, whether through the selection of neighborhood of residence, school, or friends. This study addresses the estimation of peer group effects in cases in which measures of peer group influence are potentially endogenous variables. Using a rich data set on individual behavior, the paper explores teenage pregnancy and school dropout behavior. For both cases, the estimation of a straight-forward single-equation model yields statistically significant peer group effects; however, these effects disappear under simultaneous equation estimation. The results are robust and suggest the need for careful modeling of the choice of peer groups.

Finishing High School and Starting College: Do Catholic Schools Make a Difference?

In this paper, we consider two measures of the relative effectiveness of public and Catholic schools: finishing high school and starting college. These measures are potentially more important indicators of school quality than standardized test scores in light of the economic consequences of obtaining more education. Single-equation estimates suggest that for the typical student, attending a Catholic high school raises the probability of finishing high school or entering a four-year college by thirteen percentage points. In bivariate probit models we find almost no evidence that our single-equation estimates are subject to selection bias.

The impact of workplace smoking bans: results from a national survey

OBJECTIVE To estimate the impact of workplace smoking restrictions on the prevalence and intensity of smoking among all indoor workers and various demographic and industry groups. DESIGN Detailed cross sectional data on worker self reported characteristics, smoking histories, and workplace smoking policies were used in multivariate statistical models to examine whether workplace smoking policies reduce cigarette consumption. After analysing the distribution of policies, four main types of workplace programme were defined: (1) 100% smoke-free environments, (2) work area bans in which smoking is allowed in some common areas, (3) bans in some but not all work and common areas, and (4) minimal or no restrictions. SETTING After environmental tobacco smoke was identified as a health hazard in the mid-1980s, workplace smoking restrictions became more prevalent. By 1993, nearly 82% of indoor workers faced some restriction on workplace smoking and 47% worked in 100% smoke-free environments. PARTICIPANTS The database included a nationally representative sample from the tobacco use supplements to the September 1992, January 1993, and May 1993 Current Population Surveys of 97 882 indoor workers who were not self employed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prevalence of smoking and number of cigarettes smoked daily by smokers. RESULTS Having a 100% smoke-free workplace reduced smoking prevalence by 6 percentage points and average daily consumption among smokers by 14% relative to workers subject to minimal or no restrictions. The impact of work area bans was lessened by allowing smoking in some common areas. Smoke-free policies reduced smoking for all demographic groups and in nearly all industries. CONCLUSIONS Requiring all workplaces to be smoke free would reduce smoking prevalence by 10%. Workplace bans have their greatest impact on groups with the highest rates of smoking.

The Determinants of Pesticide Regulation: A Statistical Analysis of EPA Decision Making

This paper examines the EPAs decision to cancel or continue the registrations of cancer-causing pesticides that went through the special review process between 1975 and 1989. Despite claims to the contrary, our analysis indicates that the EPA indeed balanced risks against benefits in regulating pesticides: Risks to human health or the environment increased the likelihood that a particular pesticide use was canceled by the EPA; at the same time, the larger the benefits associated with a particular use, the lower was the likelihood of cancellation. Intervention by special-interest groups was also important in the regulatory process. Comments by grower organizations significantly reduced the probability of cancellation, whereas comments by environmental advocacy groups increased the probability of cancellation. Our analysis suggests that the EPA is fully capable of weighing benefits and costs when regulating environmental hazards; however, the implicit value placed on health risks--

Localized Market Power in the U.S. Airline Industry

35 million per applicator cancer case avoided--may be considered high by some persons.

The compensating behavior of smokers: taxes, tar, and nicotine.

This paper tests whether the observed dominance of most city-pair markets and airports in the U.S. domestic airline industry by single carriers confers any pricing power on the dominan t firms. The results of fixed-effects estimation indicate that airport dominance by a carrier does confer upon it substantial pricing power , whereas dominance at the route level seems to confer no such pricing power. Additionally, the authors find a positive, yet small, correlation between both route concentration, and price and airport concentration and price. The quantitative importance of airport dominance reveals that the most promising direction for public polic y aimed at improving the industrys performance is to ensure equal acc ess to sunk airport facilities. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Relative Deprivation, Poor Health Habits and Mortality

Using data from the 1979 and 1987 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), we test whether smokers alter their smoking habits in the face of higher taxes. Smokers in high-tax states are more likely to smoke cigarettes higher in tar and nicotine. Although taxes reduce the number of cigarettes consumed per day among remaining smokers, total daily tar and nicotine intake is unaffected. Young smokers, aged 18-24, are much more responsive to changes in taxes than are older smokers, and their total daily tar and nicotine intake actually increases after a tax hike. We illustrate that tax-induced compensating behavior may eliminate some health benefits generated by reduced smoking participation. A more appropriate tax might be based on the tar and nicotine content of cigarettes.

Can Higher Cigarette Taxes Improve Birth Outcomes

Using individual-level data on males from the 1988–91 National Health Interview Survey Multiple Cause of Death Files, we examine the impact of relative deprivation within a reference group on health. We define reference groups using combinations of state, race, education, and age. High relative deprivation in the sense of Yitzhaki is associated with a higher probability of death, worse self-reported health, higher self-reported limitations, higher body mass index, and an increased probability of taking health risks.

The Effect of Income on Mortality: Evidence from the Social Security Notch

This study uses within-state variation in taxes over the 1989-1992 time period to test whether maternal smoking and birth outcomes are responsive to higher state cigarette taxes. Data on the outcomes of interest are taken from the Natality Detail files, generating a sample of roughly 10.5 million births. The results indicate that smoking participation declines when excise taxes are increased. The elasticity of demand for cigarettes is estimated to be appro- ximately -0.25. In addition, estimates of two-part models suggest that taxes only alter the probability a mother smokes and not average daily consumption conditional on smoking. Reduced-form models also indicate that higher excise taxes translate into higher birth weights. These two sets of results can be used to form an instrumental variables estimate of the impact of smoking on birth weight. This estimate indicates that maternal smoking reduces average birth weight by 367 grams, which is remarkably close to estimates from random assignment clinical trials. It is important to note that as a policy tool to improve birth outcomes, cigarette taxes are a blunt instrument. Taxes will be imposed on all smokers, but the benefits received and costs imposed extend beyond the targeted population. Under the naive assumption that the only benefits of the tax are received in the form of improved birth outcomes, we find that an increase in the cigarette tax is not as cost effective in preventing low birth weight as other more targeted public policies such as the Medicaid expansions of the late 1980s.

Families or Schools? Explaining the Convergence in White and Black Academic Performance

Legislation in the 1970s created a Notch in social security payments, with those born after January 1, 1917, receiving sharply lower benefits. Using restricted-use versions of the National Mortality Detail File combined with Census data, we use this quasi experiment to examine the income mortality link in an elderly population. Estimates from difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity models show the higher-income group has a statistically significantly higher mortality rate, contradicting the previous literature. We also found that younger cohorts responded to lower incomes by increasing postretirement work effort, suggesting that moderate employment has beneficial health effects for the elderly.